NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Ivanhater]

Now where is my Invest?

Ivan, I think we will see it get tagged sometime later tonight.

Where is my patience today?

I'm in the middle of packing for my move to Texas and I'm using this as a distraction ...interesting week shaping up for sure either way.

[Tireman4]

Now where is my Invest?

Ivan, I think we will see it get tagged sometime later tonight.

Where is my patience today?

I'm in the middle of packing for my move to Texas and I'm using this as a distraction...interesting week shaping up for sure either way.

Wait, you are coming to us? Cool. Where?

[Ivanhater]

Wait, you are coming to us? Cool. Where?

Goodfellow Air Force Base in San Angelo for Intel School...that's a bit off topic though.

HPC thoughts

[Tireman4]

That is ok. Congrats and I know you will do well. Now back to the regularly scheduled program....

[Weatherfreak000]

HPC seems to corroborate now as well. Model Consensus is heavy this is going East.

[Rgv20]

FWIW 12zJMA (Japanese Model) has the low in the Western GOM much like the 12zUKMET.

[Cyclenall]

I broke my refresh button already.

I locked my computer up a little while ago. lol

Which page(s) are you refreshing? The NRL or this one?

I broke my refresh button already.

My finger is very red.

You can just set your browser to auto-refresh mode on a certain page (you can set how often). If your browser doesn't do that, there are extensions and add-ons that do it.

[Ivanhater]

HPC seems to corroborate now as well. Consensus is heavy this is going East.

Still low confidence right now...even the Euro waits 7 days to make landfall. That is amazing to have a system in the Gulf for a full week. It could get left behind, but the idea of a low going into Mexico is certainly not the best odds as it was a few days ago

HPC Final Update:

FINAL...
THE AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE GAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. HOWEVER...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN THE GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THE MEDIUM RANGE
COORDINATION CALL WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER. A GREAT AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD STILL EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

[duris]

Hi helpful people. Can someone please explain to me why here in NOLA we have strong winds? We have the last several days. Is it related at all to what you all are talking about in this thread? The blobs of potential development?

Also, will this effect our weather in southern louisiana for the weekend? My local forecasts shows wind, but not much of a rain chance. Just wanted yall's opinions, as it seems more accurate.

thanks!

If I've been reading the AFD correctly, the winds are from the pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough.

[cycloneye]

Aric/Mike/Rgv20 ,are the GFS,CMC and ECMWF ensembles out?

[OuterBanker]

Accuweather now mentioning it.

"Areas of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula are being watched for possible development and impact in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Seaboard."

Models are still split, looks like a slight limb for them.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric/Mike/Rgv20 ,are the GFS,CMC and ECMWF ensembles out?

only ones I have are the 00z

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS Ensemble mean should clear it up



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[OuterBanker]

Aha, they are trying to cover all the bases.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... ccuweather

[Aric Dunn]

The buoy just about 100 miles to the nw of the developing circ in the eastern gulf is seeing decent pressure falls ( beyond normal afternoon pressure falls) and winds are increasing

[Aric Dunn]

Do expect as this low deepens a bit more the 00z runs will be in much better agreement.

[cycloneye]

Do expect as this low deepens a bit more the 00z runs will be in much better agreement.

Especially,when is tagged as 96L.

[Aric Dunn]

Do expect as this low deepens a bit more the 00z runs will be in much better agreement.

Especially,when is tagged as 96L.

that will help for sure. but even without that the input into the models will likely include this new low and being that the models have been seeing a low form somewhere near but this will allow them to have an actual system to track.

[Aric Dunn]

And if anything does come off the Yucatan its will eventually be absorbed or rotate around the other one and eventually where enough convection develops will determine where we see consolidation.

[Weatherfreak000]

And if anything does come off the Yucatan its will eventually be absorbed or rotate around the other one and eventually where enough convection develops will determine where we see consolidation.

Exactly. Couldn't be said better a promet couldn't have said it better assuming you buy into the EURO. I personally prefer GFS, but others ride the EURO and I can see why, the model that changes the game and picks up the trends first is the EURO. This time however, it could have been the GFS. Now, can we discuss what the chances are that the trof misses/isn't as deep, as Rock suggested, I think that leaves Debby ESE of Grand Isle meandering. This leaves potential for anywhere from just about anywhere along the Gulf Coast. Perhaps not likely, but interesting?