NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[tailgater]

I think what you can gather is that this mess is Very CLOSE to going either way.

[floridasun78]

A good overview here.......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

dont work

[Ivanhater]

108 hours...deepening, same time the Euro does as well



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[Dean4Storms]

A good overview here.......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

dont work

Fixed it........... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

[xcool22]

18z gfs at 120hrs not move

[Ivanhater]

120 hours...Florida hit imminent it seems



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[Dean4Storms]

Might be a more Big Bend landfall this run.

[xcool22]

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[Ivanhater]

In the Gulf for almost a week....beach erosion and flooding looks likely

[bayoubebe]

A good overview here.......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

dont work

Fixed it........... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

Thank you!!!! Great video, and summarizes everything for people who are not pro mets!
I would recommend that link for any amateur, and anyone else who needs GOOD, basic information, that is extremely helpful.


I hope nothing becomes of it. My wish is that it all dissipates somehow, and there is NO tropical system to monitor.

[tolakram]

I agree, but only with a disclaimer added!

[Aric Dunn]

well there is about to be a big collision of both areas. so I think its safe to say that some sort of a interaction/ merger is going ot happen before we get an system or even a an invest.

[midnight8]

From Lake Charles NWS office

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND HELPING TO PROVIDE A BARRIER TO ANY NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE GULF LOW. THE EURO RESPECTS THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS THE LOW
WELL SOUTH OF THE OUR COASTAL WATERS, EVENTUALLY TRANSITING THE
LOW TO THE EASTERN GULF. PER LATEST NCEP COORIDINATION, THIS COULD
EVOLVE FURTHER INTO A SUBTROPICAL TYPE LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO HEAD
EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

SWEENEY

[cycloneye]

The TC probability is very large in area.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Ivanhater]

Code Orange! Now, where is my Invest?

[Aric Dunn]

everyone notice they only mention the area in the eastern gulf not the MLC over the Yucatan. not saying the energy from there wont assist. just it wont be the main contributor. thought the overnight the area in the east gulf will move towards an area in the central gulf that will gradually become conducive for sustained convection and thats when things start to get interesting. the next 24 to 36 hours are important.

[Ivanhater]

everyone notice they only mention the area in the eastern gulf not the MLC over the yucatan. not saying the energy from there wont assist. just it wont be the main contributor.

Regardless, the circulation is going to be quite broad for the next 3 days in the central Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

everyone notice they only mention the area in the eastern gulf not the MLC over the yucatan. not saying the energy from there wont assist. just it wont be the main contributor.

Regardless, the circulation is going to be quite broad for the next 3 days in the central Gulf.

i added more to that. but we will likely wake up to a completely looking system. with a building upper environment aiding convection. it wont be shear free but more conducive.

[Dean4Storms]

everyone notice they only mention the area in the eastern gulf not the MLC over the yucatan. not saying the energy from there wont assist. just it wont be the main contributor.

Regardless, the circulation is going to be quite broad for the next 3 days in the central Gulf.

I don't know that I buy into that, at least for 3 days. This Low gets over those warm SST's in the central Gulf and I think it develops quicker than the models suggest. We've seen that before!