NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[ROCK]

ukmet and nam vs gfs and euro. easy bet imo. if the the western gulf WFOs give the western solution credence, you'll see at least an introduction of POPs with future forecasts. as always it's hurry up and wait.

wait for it..... you forgot about the CMC also.......

[ROCK]

CMC likes texas.....and this time is means business.....deepest I have seen it.....2nd run in a row

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[South Texas Storms]

ukmet and nam vs gfs and euro. easy bet imo. if the the western gulf WFOs give the western solution credence, you'll see at least an introduction of POPs with future forecasts. as always it's hurry up and wait.

wait for it..... you forgot about the CMC also.......

Oh my goodness Rock. Take a look at the 0z cmc.


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[ROCK]

yeah I saw it.....that is a hurricane bro...and a nasty one at that....

[Riptide]

The GFS is notoriously known for downplaying TC genesis and intensity, and I'd be more focused on track. I'm quite confident that there will be a named system in the Gulf before July.

[ROCK]

that is easily a sub 980 or less storm....comes in right around Matagorda....NHC has no choice now with a global spitting out this solution.....invest in the am....IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow. Now that was interesting...CMC out to lunch as usual, same as UKMET and NAM? I'd say so but gonna need the EURO to confirm.

[ROCK]

Wow. Now that was interesting...CMC out to lunch as usual, same as UKMET and NAM? I'd say so but gonna need the EURO to confirm.

I would concur....looks like I am staying up for it....

[ROCK]

Lets not forget the CMC has had upgrades I think last year....not saying this will verify but it cant be discounted with back to back runs

[South Texas Storms]

yeah I saw it.....that is a hurricane bro...and a nasty one at that....

Yeah that may even be a major hurricane on that run approaching the Texas coast. 2 runs in a row of consistency for the cmc. Can't be discounted imo.

[ROCK]

yeah I saw it.....that is a hurricane bro...and a nasty one at that....

Yeah that may even be a major hurricane on that run approaching the Texas coast. 2 runs in a row of consistency for the cmc. Can't be discounted imo.

its deep for sure....but cant tell how deep....that was a nasty run....

[Weatherfreak000]

Last night was NGOM though, actually CMC has been rather inconsistent, it still needs support for me. Would be nice to see a shakeup in the models..problem being the TVCN is always such a useful application.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah I saw it.....that is a hurricane bro...and a nasty one at that....

Yeah that may even be a major hurricane on that run approaching the Texas coast. 2 runs in a row of consistency for the cmc. Can't be discounted imo.

its deep for sure....but cant tell how deep....that was a nasty run....

976mb just south of you in 144 hours Rock.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... 00&fixhh=1

[ROCK]

yep....maybe Rockport area....still to close for comfort....976 translates to a strong cat 2

[South Texas Storms]

Wow. Now that was interesting...CMC out to lunch as usual, same as UKMET and NAM? I'd say so but gonna need the EURO to confirm.

I would concur....looks like I am staying up for it....

Same here. Guess it's the 3 of us staying up for it tonight.

[ROCK]

24hr EURO NW tip of the Yucatan

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif


48hrs

[South Texas Storms]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP048.gif


48hrs

Any changes from the 12z run so far?

[Sambucol]

Wow. Now that was interesting...CMC out to lunch as usual, same as UKMET and NAM? I'd say so but gonna need the EURO to confirm.

I would concur....looks like I am staying up for it....

Same here. Guess it's the 3 of us staying up for it tonight.

When does the Euro run? Make that 4 staying up. I'm on the upper Texas coast, so, I want to know, too.

[South Texas Storms]

It's updating right now buddy! Up to 48 hours so far.