NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

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ROCK
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#801 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:08 am

running now....out 48hrs


changes= more consolidated than the 12Z at the start
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#802 Postby lebron23 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:16 am

That CMC run is just............. :double:
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#803 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:17 am

Crap I think it's catching the trough on this run.
96 hours
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#804 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:20 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Crap I think it's catching the trough on this run.
96 hours
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif



yep....Ia trof in June that can pick up a system out of the GOM.....got figure
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#805 Postby lebron23 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:20 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Crap I think it's catching the trough on this run.
96 hours
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


Yeah it did. Still too early to tell where this thing will go. Half say Texas half say Florida
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#806 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:22 am

120 hrs, looks like it's barely catching it. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

I'm really having trouble believing that trough is going to be that strong in June. That trough looks like a September trough. Am I the only one who feels like that?
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#807 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:25 am

120 moving towards the NGOM.....thats a sub 1000mb TS

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#808 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:35 am

Hold up! It misses the trough this run! 144 hour:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#809 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:37 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Hold up! It misses the trough this run! 144 hour:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif



yep
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#810 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:38 am

Agh looks like it barely catches it at the last minute this run. 168 hrs:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#811 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:39 am

Quite the development but still looks similar to GFS. CMC was out to lunch. NGOM strike maybe? Anxious to see how this run ends.

Edit: Nevermind....that's how the cookie crumbles.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#812 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:40 am

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210533
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BY
THAT TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#813 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:40 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Quite the development but still looks similar to GFS. CMC was out to lunch. NGOM strike maybe? Anxious to see how this run ends.


I wouldn't say the cmc is out to lunch. 2 very similar runs in a row today. It has some support from the UKMET and NAM as well.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#814 Postby Riptide » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:44 am

That is a decent high-end TS or category 1 hurricane on the 0z Euro, legit enough for late June.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#815 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:46 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Quite the development but still looks similar to GFS. CMC was out to lunch. NGOM strike maybe? Anxious to see how this run ends.


I wouldn't say the cmc is out to lunch. 2 very similar runs in a row today. It has some support from the UKMET and NAM as well.


Stick around model threads......you'll see CMC is ALWAYS out to lunch :lol:


Think of it like this, if a model were your 2 facedown cards playing Texas Hold Em, NAM is a duece,seven anyday....and CMC ain't too far away.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#816 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:48 am

lol weatherfreak, one of my best friends always wins with the 7-2 offsuit. :lol:
I'm just looking at the NAM because it does well with troughs and ridges in the U.S.

yikes 192 hours euro has this down to 978 mb passing jacksonville.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#817 Postby Riptide » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:50 am

South Texas Storms wrote:lol weatherfreak, one of my best friends always wins with the 7-2 offsuit. :lol:
I'm just looking at the NAM because it does well with troughs and ridges in the U.S.

yikes 192 hours euro has this down to 978 mb passing jacksonville.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

Image

:double:
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#818 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:51 am

yeah the NAM does well with ridge placements....really the only reason I look at it.....so we are talking about a storm that sits in the GOM for 7 days to finally get picked up by a June trof.....
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#819 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:52 am

If the ukmet or cmc were to verify, Texas would see a significant hurricane. A lot can change this far out, but you all should make sure you are truly prepared for something like this.


Not to wish this on someone else, but I want this thing to stay away from Tampa. Educational loans are expensive enough. Don't need wind damage issues on top of that.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#820 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 1:53 am

What I take from this Euro run is it is stronger than the 12z run and also closer to missing the trough.
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