Moderator: S2k Moderators
Dean4Storms wrote:I think the models are initializing the low much too far north. Missing the fact it's sitting in virtually very little shear already which into turn delays the intensification and thus the poleward eventuality and feeling the trough. This Low near the north coast of the Yucatan gets a bit offshore later today and lookout tonight!
Aric Dunn wrote:there is for sure west winds over the yuctan but it needs to get away from land and its still competing with the other low.
tolakram wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:there is for sure west winds over the yuctan but it needs to get away from land and its still competing with the other low.
With a clearer circulation and some convection near or over the center I would think the time is right to call it, but this may be a case of persistence.
Aric Dunn wrote:tolakram wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:there is for sure west winds over the yuctan but it needs to get away from land and its still competing with the other low.
With a clearer circulation and some convection near or over the center I would think the time is right to call it, but this may be a case of persistence.
we have seen invest for basically nothing... lol this should have been one 2 days ago.
Also bet we see the a center develop under that convection or the weak circ on the coast gets pulled that way.
ROCK wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:tolakram wrote:
With a clearer circulation and some convection near or over the center I would think the time is right to call it, but this may be a case of persistence.
we have seen invest for basically nothing... lol this should have been one 2 days ago.
Also bet we see the a center develop under that convection or the weak circ on the coast gets pulled that way.
yeah Aric I agree with you...A) we have model support albeit sketchy at best B) we have a sort of COC C) its in the GOM close enough to land to alert the masses.
Not sure what else there needs to be unless they want to jump right to a TD later today....imo....
yeah Aric I agree with you...A) we have model support albeit sketchy at best B) we have a sort of COC C) its in the GOM close enough to land to alert the masses.
Not sure what else there needs to be unless they want to jump right to a TD later today....imo....
SETXWXLADY wrote:MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/00Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED ON A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE POSITION. DURING THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH
IS LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL
STAIR-STEP TRACK TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO
ITS NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...CONFIDENCE
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE AND ITS
ALONG-TRACK TIMING. SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
/NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEMS CURRENT STATUS.
ROCK wrote:SETXWXLADY wrote:MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/00Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED ON A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE POSITION. DURING THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH
IS LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL
STAIR-STEP TRACK TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO
ITS NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON THIS EXPECTED TRACK...CONFIDENCE
IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE AND ITS
ALONG-TRACK TIMING. SEE THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
/NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEMS CURRENT STATUS.
where did this come from?
JonathanBelles wrote:It came from today's HPC model diagnostic discussion seen here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd
Nikki wrote:I was gonna ask the same thing, Rock. I too would like to know where this came from.
Aric Dunn wrote:Nikki wrote:I was gonna ask the same thing, Rock. I too would like to know where this came from.
here i just googled the header.
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProd ... &node=KWNH
