NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[ROCK]

50% and no invest tag.....this is weird...

[Evil Jeremy]

50% and no Invest tag? Is this a first?

EDIT: And that's three posts in a row about this. Is the NHC messing with us?

[South Texas Storms]

well the EURO should be coming out in about 20 minutes....WXMN57 probably already has it though... Hopefully it will clear up some of this model madness....

Rock you see last night's 0z Euro ensemble? Most of them had it missing the trough and coming towards Texas.

[ROCK]

50% and no Invest tag? Is this a first?

got to be....I have been looking at these things religiously since 2004 and have never seen such a thing...

[Aric Dunn]

well the EURO should be coming out in about 20 minutes....WXMN57 probably already has it though... Hopefully it will clear up some of this model madness....

Rock you see last night's 0z Euro ensemble? Most of them had it missing the trough and coming towards Texas.

The 12z has just started.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=000

[ROCK]

well the EURO should be coming out in about 20 minutes....WXMN57 probably already has it though... Hopefully it will clear up some of this model madness....

Rock you see last night's 0z Euro ensemble? Most of them had it missing the trough and coming towards Texas.

yeah I saw them....the ensembles usually gives you an idea of what the next run is going to be....but in this case they were all over the GOM....still up in the air...IMO

[northjaxpro]

I don't think I can ever recall a system at 50% probability to develop not be declared an invest. That's something indeed.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWO:

INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[SunnyThoughts]

Have you guys ever seen the NHC put out a 50% chance of a system developing in the next 48 hours and not even have an invest out yet? Wow. I guess they are having difficulty in pinpointing the actual location of possible formation.

Edit: Jaxpro beat me to it

[galvestontx]

well the EURO should be coming out in about 20 minutes....WXMN57 probably already has it though... Hopefully it will clear up some of this model madness....

Rock you see last night's 0z Euro ensemble? Most of them had it missing the trough and coming towards Texas.

Here's to it hitting the trough and not coming to Texas. Its my first year back in Texas after leaving 3 months after Ike and moving to Dubai..

[lester]

Have you guys ever seen the NHC put out a 50% chance of a system developing in the next 48 hours and not even have an invest out yet? Wow. I guess they are having difficulty in pinpointing the actual location of possible formation.

Edit: Jaxpro beat me to it

there was one case in the EPAC a few years ago, don't remember what name it became though

-lester

[Dave]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Weatherfreak000]

This is insane. 50% and no invest......no excuse i'd say.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 24 hrs.

http://instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php ... b&hour=024

[ocala]

I don't think I can ever recall a system at 50% probability to develop not be declared an invest. That's something indeed.

Didn't Beryl go from a 50% invest to a tropical storm?

[Cainer]

I don't think I can ever recall a system at 50% probability to develop not be declared an invest. That's something indeed.

Didn't Beryl go from a 50% invest to a tropical storm?

Chris did, maybe Alberto as well... But Beryl was up to 80% if i remember correctly.

[Evil Jeremy]

INVEST!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206211759
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012062118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Weatherfreak000]

Good timing! Finally.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It is? WAHHOOOO!

[Aric Dunn]

we have 96 l !!