ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS shows a SW FL landfall:

[Aric Dunn]

looking at radar out ogf cuba and sat s mor defined circ is possibly developing nw of the tip of cuba or ne of the yucatan.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed. Do we have any surface observations to back that up? (i.e. west winds recorded in western cuba)

looking at radar out ogf cuba and sat s mor defined circ is possibly developing nw of the tip of cuba or ne of the yucatan.

[tailgater]

Probably a MLC skooting off to the east.

[psyclone]

Definitely a good reason for NHC to up development chances this evening. 6 more hours of development time in the 48 hr outlook. BY 8pm Saturday I expect it to be a strengthening TS.

I don't mean to sound sadistic, but a nice TS sweeping through here would cure our drought AND since I'm on a road trip to the USVI/BVI next week, that should help to suck all the storms north of there.

However, folks, I've been through quite a few strong TS, and PLEASE take precautions for flooding seriously, even if your "officials" say you are not in a flood plain in Florida. It doesn't take much on the West Coast of Florida to cause a flood once the ground is saturated.

if the storm organizes in the central gulf and then heads west, our forecast on the west coast of florida will dry out big time. i hope the westward trend continues but we'll just have to wait and see.

[crimi481]

Looks like original "empty swirl" is getting organized ( closer to S,E, Gulf)
The Yucatan system may be part of main Low's tail?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

looking at radar out ogf cuba and sat s mor defined circ is possibly developing nw of the tip of cuba or ne of the yucatan.

can you post the radar loop from cuba here please

[tropicwatch]

here is a cuba link

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

[TexasF6]

I would echo what tailgater said, plus time of day plays with satpic as well. The core seems to be finding a nice convective swirl on the Yucatan, just my two shillings!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneBrain]

Landfall probability:
Mexico - 5%
Texas - 37.5%
Louisiana - 20%
Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida - 37.5%

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneman]

On topic: I do have a question about the ridge/trough that maybe starting to make the models go west. Could the trough/ridge end up being weaker than forecast causing another change/shift in models?

Key will be the ridge. The trough is already in existence and heading east/northeast. The -NAO will allow it to deepen along the east coast. If this system were to evolve quickly it would race to Florida and quickly move through the Peninsula with the trough. This is why the GFS not long ago showed it already off the east coast of FL for several runs. A stronger elongated ridge will tend to swing the models west. A caveat of a stronger east coast trough is shear would then quickly rip it apart (again why GFS has not been gun-ho as the other models in intensity). So really the upcoming ridge is very important for the models as changes in it can have different solutions per model runs.

Doesn't necessarily rip it apart. We've had many storms on the West coast of Florida where they actually seem to held their own or intensified. All about timing and such. Remember Charley (as an example - not forecasting that intensity)

[ROCK]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

I see it inland attm over the Yucatan....jmo

[OuterBanker]

Jeremy, that's the only scenario going ene. I think it's making the trough too strong.

Also, what's that low se of Hatteras at 996mb?

[ROCK]

18Z GFS still holding on to the East solution....going against all other global models that are out currently. GFDL will run soon....that will be interesting.

[Ntxw]

Doesn't necessarily rip it apart. We've had many storms on the West coast of Florida where they actually seem to held their own or intensified. All about timing and such. Remember Charley (as an example - not forecasting that intensity)

Certainly, but I was referencing why the GFS runs had a weaker system. And this time of year it would tend to become more subtropical if that were the case. Charley was later in the season where conditions are much more favorable.

[SunnyThoughts]

Can't wait for recon to get out there tomorrow. Sure looks to be getting her act together. Maybe even be Debby by the time recon gets there...who knows. Just an observation and in no way a forecast.

[cycloneye]

18Z GFS still holding on to the East solution....going against all other global models that are out currently. GFDL will run soon....that will be interesting.

Dont forget the HWRF that was also upgraded.

[caneman]

For what it's worth, the 18z GFS shows a SW FL landfall:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal114.gif

Is it also predicting quicker development though?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Anticyclonic flow has become established aloft in association with 96L.

[lrak]

Merida / lic Manuel Crecencio, (MMMD)
Elev: 11 ft; Latitude: 20.94686; Longitude: -89.65214

It is reporting 1006.8 mb.

Current Weather Conditions:
Campeche, Camp., Mexico

Wind from the WNW (300 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.75 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob MMCP 212143Z 30010KT 7SM SCT020 BKN100 28/24 A2975 RMK 8/520