ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Javlin]

Yucatan Strait shows the best overall presentation of rotation.

[ROCK]

end of day 4....still sitting there....sheesh

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[NDG]

the TVCN includes a bunch of models including the EURO....but its weighted more towards the GFS....well thats how I understand it...

No, I believe the TVCA is weighted more on the ECMWF, since it has been the best performing global model.

[Jagno]

Hmmmmmmm, sitting and spinning in this hot tub is NOT a good thing. As a matter of fact that scenario makes me want to pack up now. LOL

[tailgater]

yep at 90hr still sitting there

It's giving birth to Ernesto off the east coast before heading west.

[wkwally]

send it to Brownsville we need the rain bad here

[bella_may]

i DO NOT like how that thing sits in my backyard for that long

[Nikki]

Hmmmmmmm, sitting and spinning in this hot tub is NOT a good thing. As a matter of fact that scenario makes me want to pack up now. LOL

LOL we were just talking about this same thing at work tonight!!

[Rgv20]

Times up GFS! Your out! lol from 60hrs to 108hrs just sitting there......let me get out my trusty calculator...2 days stationary according to the 0zGFS.

[EmeraldCoast93]

Yikes! that would put me in the right front quadrant for 48 hours!

[Lane]

end of day 4....still sitting there....sheesh

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Look out in the Atlantic at 72hrs and beyond it looks like another low forms?

[Hurricaneman]

end of day 4....still sitting there....sheesh

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Look out in the Atlantic at 72hrs and beyond it looks like another low forms?

Looks like it splits the energy forming a new low on the east coast, I don't know if I can believe that

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


doesnt want to go anywhere.....after 5 days....seems unrealistic...

[Hurricaneman]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


doesnt want to go anywhere.....after 5 days....seems unrealistic...

Wait until the ensemble runs, I believe those will have both the it catches the trough and goes through Florida and out to sea scenerio and the it misses the trough and slowly moves towards Texas scenerio in their runs which is probably why in the OP run it just sits there

[ROCK]

126hr still sitting in the same place.....that doesnt seem possible...

[Lane]

At 123hrs falls apart/gets wiped out. I don't know what the "red line" represents.

Spoke to soon, still there at 132hrs in the same place........

[tailgater]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


doesnt want to go anywhere.....after 5 days....seems unrealistic...

Yeah Rock I be willing to bet your house that does'nt happen.

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


doesnt want to go anywhere.....after 5 days....seems unrealistic...

Yeah Rock I be willing to bet your house that does'nt happen.

yeah its following the trend as the CMC and EURO but they didnt sit it there for days and days....lol

[Riptide]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M


doesnt want to go anywhere.....after 5 days....seems unrealistic...

Yeah Rock I be willing to bet your house that does'nt happen.

If that did happen, flood city of historical proportions....

[vaffie]

It would be quite the flood. Though I just don't see it happening. Any storm that gets sufficiently strong enough (of course GFS doesn't have the resolution for appropriate intensity forecasting) gets tugged towards any weakness eventually. The problem with GFS is that because it's not forecasting a powerful storm which is what this would become after three days over the Gulf like that, it is misinterpreting the steering currents, which would tend to push it westward, I expect. But anyway, if the steering currents are that weak, it's going to cause quite a lot of flooding, and if it's a powerful storm, a lot of tidal damage too. It looks like this will be a Gulf storm, i.e., no matter where it goes, we will all feel Debbie.