ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#441 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:31 am

vaffie wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Where are you seeing the new run then?


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg



That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#442 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:34 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
vaffie wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Where are you seeing the new run then?


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg



That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.




check FSU again....destroys Galveston this time further up the coast
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#443 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:35 am

0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#444 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:35 am

0z CMC just finished updating. Rock looks like it's heading for you this run. Still consistent. What is this 4 runs showing this now?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#445 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:35 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
That hasn't fully updated yet. It's just showing the end of last night's run. Check the timestamp.


I could be wrong, but it says Friday 6/22 0Z.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#446 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:37 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#447 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:37 am

ROCK wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Yikes, now I'm nervous. Looks stronger than previous runs too.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#448 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:37 am

yeah further up the coast....still though basically the same run....north up to NGOM then over west into Texas....
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#449 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:38 am

Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#450 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:39 am

vaffie wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Yikes, now I'm nervous. Looks stronger than previous runs too.



what's the mb of Debby on that run?...I think there is a map somewhere that can zoom in....
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#451 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:39 am

ROCK wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Rakes the coastline from Mobile or so all the way to Texas. geeze
0 likes   

bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#452 Postby bella_may » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:39 am

vaffie wrote:Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.

what are the links to those models? lol
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4226
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#453 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:39 am

When does the HWRF and GFDL update? In a few mins right?
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#454 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:41 am

it look like may pass close to keys and first forecast if center more to east and early today
0 likes   

User avatar
vaffie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 898
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:11 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#455 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:43 am

bella_may wrote:
vaffie wrote:Of interest to my fellow model-watchers. Looking forward to seeing what GFDL and HWRF say.

In a more immediate example of research supporting hurricane forecasting, NOAA this season [2012] is introducing enhancements to two of the computer models available to hurricane forecasters - the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. The HWRF model has been upgraded with a higher resolution and improved atmospheric physics. This latest version has demonstrated a 20 to 25 percent improvement in track forecasts and a 15 percent improvement in intensity forecasts relative to the previous version while also showing improvement in the representation of storm structure and size. Improvements to the GFDL model for 2012 include physics upgrades that are expected to reduce or eliminate a high bias in the model's intensity forecasts.

what are the links to those models? lol


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#456 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:43 am

other thing it could pass near west tip cuba too a bit to west of their
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#457 Postby boca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:44 am

Off topic does anyone remember the size of hurricane Gilbert?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145313
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#458 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:46 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#459 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:46 am

Edit: cycloneye beat me to it. 00z GFDL says nothing to worry about. Don't think I'll stay up for Euro. Head is spinning after tonights models :lol: .
0 likes   

bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

#460 Postby bella_may » Fri Jun 22, 2012 12:49 am

HWRF looks like a landfall around the alabama/florida border before it shifts to the NE
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests