Global model runs discussion

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Cyclenall
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3881 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:08 am

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An ECMWF ensemble mean run on June 16 showing low pressure over the entire North American continent at once. There are pockets of neutral pressure but I've never seen this before.

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A NOGAPS model run on June 13 showing low pressure over the vast majority of the North American continent.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3882 Postby Peanut432 » Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:47 am

What would low pressure over all of North America mean? Certain death?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3883 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 17, 2012 3:36 am

Peanut432 wrote:What would low pressure over all of North America mean? Certain death?



its the NOGAPS....I wouldnt be to concerned over it....wait until July and August when the lid blows off.... :lol:
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#3884 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:08 pm

Don't see much from the low off Florida other than heavy rain
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3885 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:10 am

1985-Hurricane Elena..........she's baaaaaaaaaaack!
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Hi-Res ECMWF and other models

#3886 Postby arp2559 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:40 am

Raleigh is a good site for ECMWF and it updates maybe a few minutes sooner but the wunderground interactive map is really nice to supplement with. It gives the google map overlays and you can toggle through choices such as wind shear, slp, wind speed, etc. It also provides 3 hr increments which is nice as most other sites only give 24 hours. I'm not affiliated with wunderground in any way but just passing this along as it's very useful and fun to use for the hurricane season. Oh and you can use it for the GFS, NAM, and HWRF too. Not sure about GFDL.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=31.2&lon=-75.2&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0
That is the URL. Click on Model Data to select the model you want and then select the features you want.

This is an example screenshot from the 00z ECMWF for 6/21/2012 showing the gulf system at hour 180.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3887 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 21, 2012 5:54 pm

Very long range GFS showing a little bit of action in the MDR. I think the ECMWF has something too. Noise from these models or something to watch in two weeks?

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3888 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:04 pm

Something is over me,but is very long range so you know the drill about that. :) However,this model has shown this MDR thing for a few runs back so let's see if it continues to have it.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3889 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:27 pm

18Z GFS not showing a whole lot out there in the long range.....few T waves moving thru the carib.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3890 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2012 6:35 pm

ROCK wrote:18Z GFS not showing a whole lot out there in the long range.....few T waves moving thru the carib.


We need it badly as June has been very dry here so bring them!. Let's see if by July 5th,we can get a moderate wave over us.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3891 Postby ROCK » Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:25 pm

I hear ya....supposed to be 110F here in Pearland (near Galveston) on Tuesday....We are baking over here....
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3892 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:46 pm

ROCK wrote:I hear ya....supposed to be 110F here in Pearland (near Galveston) on Tuesday....We are baking over here....

Debbie would have been nice huh... Well on to the next! If there is as El-Nino seems to be intensifying.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3893 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:47 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
ROCK wrote:I hear ya....supposed to be 110F here in Pearland (near Galveston) on Tuesday....We are baking over here....

Debbie would have been nice huh... Well on to the next! If there is as El-Nino seems to be intensifying.



Yeah Debby would've been real nice. She was just a tease though. Definitely need some rain to cool us off soon Rock.
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#3894 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:48 pm

12z GFS Vort moving toward the Antilles early July still........

http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ ... 0_nam.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3895 Postby ROCK » Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:47 pm

Luis I think this your next rain maker. It shows with some 850mb vort. Not really focusing on convection right now but it does have rotation and nice structure.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... S/AMERICA/
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3896 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:50 pm

ROCK wrote:Luis I think this your next rain maker. It shows with some 850mb vort. Not really focusing on convection right now but it does have rotation and nice structure.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... S/AMERICA/


Yes,GFS has been showing a reflection of it and the 12z Euro also had a reflection. Aric has a thread about that wave.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3897 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:49 pm

12z Euro has a Strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane by 240 hours in EPAC.


However,12z GFS doesn't have anything that strong on the same 240 hours.But it has a TS on very long range.See loop here
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3898 Postby ROCK » Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:22 pm

12Z NOGAPS likes the wave out there in the MDR...also follows the EURO in the EPAC system.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3899 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 26, 2012 5:55 pm

You can trace the wave now in the East/Central Atlantic all the way to the Texas/Mexico border on this loop of the 18z GFS. :)

18z GFS loop
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3900 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 26, 2012 10:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:You can trace the wave now in the East/Central Atlantic all the way to the Texas/Mexico border on this loop of the 18z GFS. :)

18z GFS loop


So is that vortex, the one being depicted @ 35W

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