ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes I see where Aric is talking about as you can see some cyclonic turning there looking at the VIS loops. Either way the system seems to be behaving as expected as it slowly moves North or NNW into the Southern GOM as a disorganized and broad low. Developments chances look possible for the weekend so I would up the chances to 60% at this point. Shear continues to be an issue though and that combined with the influence of the mid-lattitude trough to the north should keep this system in check if it moves to the east instead of west. Note that if it goes west and misses the trough, it has a chance to have an anticyclone (minimal shear) building overtop in the Western GOM that could allow it to strengthen as the CMC and Euro show.

[Ivanhater]

Just be weary of any trends with certain models, as many of you have been here a while, we do not have a center yet and any relocation's which could be happening will throw a wrench in it....

3 runs for the EURO, 5 runs of the CMC, 6 runs with the UKMET, god knows how many runs of the NAM.....

that is consistency for a west solution...all showing the trof aint going to be deep enough to pick it up and out....

True, however looking at the big picture (not just where the storms ends up on the particular model run) it is a close call on whether it gets picked up or left behind. My point is, we do not have a center yet and with the complex set-up, this is a more challenging forecast than usual.

[Air Force Met]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2012062218, , BEST, 0, 227N, 881W, 25, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Is that the position you have it Aric?

That's where I would put it. You have a couple of swirls to the west/SW...and one to the east and they are all rotating around that center point. If you look at a high res vis there is some cu just sitting there in the middle...spinning in a counter clockwise loop like its on an axle.

[bqhurricane]

I'm not met, but it really looks like it's coming together just NE of the Yucatan. I can clearly see a spin in the visible sat imagery.

[Weatherfreak000]

Nobody is doubting the west solution is viable. But without a center to track its so hard to tell. The trofs should be still strong enough if the timing is right.

[petit_bois]

Just be weary of any trends with certain models, as many of you have been here a while, we do not have a center yet and any relocation's which could be happening will throw a wrench in it....

3 runs for the EURO, 5 runs of the CMC, 6 runs with the UKMET, god knows how many runs of the NAM.....

that is consistency for a west solution...all showing the trof aint going to be deep enough to pick it up and out....

Did you see the GFS? has it going over Florida!

[tolakram]

Shear has dropped significantly in the last 3 hours.



from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[AHS2011]

Does anyone think that we'll have Tropical Storm Debby by tomorrow morning, or at least TD #4?

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is no trough that strong this time of year that will take future Debbie across Florida. Definitely west of Florida. I say from Louisiana to Texas. Once it's named and a center is established. The models wil go west.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

[Evil Jeremy]

There is no trough that strong this time of year that will take future Debbie across Florida. Definitely west of Florida. I say from Louisiana to Texas. Once it's named and a center is established. The models wil go west.

That's an incredibly bold statement to make so early in a storm's life cycle. Heck, it's not even a storm yet. To early to rule any part of the gulf coast out.

[Ikester]

There is no trough that strong this time of year that will take future Debbie across Florida. Definitely west of Florida. I say from Louisiana to Texas. Once it's named and a center is established. The models wil go west.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

Clearly you have not looked at the height anomolies over Greenland. The clear difference between the Euro and the GFS lies right there. The ridging over Greenland is huge and that's what would dig the trough. IMO, after reviewing my charts, I find that the ridging over Texas is going to be huge as well. I would be shocked to see a storm make landfall anywhere north of Corpus---and even that's being generous.

[bqhurricane]

I think one of the local pro mets in Houston said that if Debby forms, this would be the first time ever to have 4 names storms in June.

[Sanibel]

Tropical rain bands pushing over us here. Light winds.

[tolakram]

Bigger picture, 15 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Pretty large system!

[ROCK]

There is no trough that strong this time of year that will take future Debbie across Florida. Definitely west of Florida. I say from Louisiana to Texas. Once it's named and a center is established. The models wil go west.

That's an incredibly bold statement to make so early in a storm's life cycle. Heck, it's not even a storm yet. To early to rule any part of the gulf coast out.

yeah, someone might be eating a helping of crow with that statement....I would post that picture but cant find it....

[adam0983]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the organization of invest 96L on radar and the good outflow of the system. I believe that Invest 96L is a tropical depression right now.

[ROCK]

heres your trof.....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ge_14km_wv

[jabman98]

What's the recon schedule? They cancelled the flight today, right? Are they flying it tomorrow?

[Sanibel]

Tolakram's loop shows potential to snap together quickly. All depends on that huge synoptically-sheared dry NW quadrant I guess.

[Florida1118]

I think one of the local pro mets in Houston said that if Debby forms, this would be the first time ever to have 4 names storms in June.

But we didnt have 4 storms in June. We had 2 in May, and if Debby forms, 2 in June.