ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Cyclenall]

There is just way too much shear this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico for Invest 96L to strengthen into a major storm.

Late June 1957 didn't care .

There are some huge reg flags with this future TC and if Hurricane Chris can form in waters that cold, Debby can certainly become a major hurricane which was shown by the models more than a couple times (even the Euro). There is uncertainty with the shear profiles and the track could go anywhere. I was even amazed some didn't even think it would ever become a TC as recently as yesterday! Weren't the models showing this feature since the 4th? Very long time.

Also this:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

*Cut*

BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

*Cut*

FORECASTER BROWN

[tropicwatch]

heres your trof.....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ge_14km_wv

Towards the south west end of the trough looks to be flattening out. Which might indicate a forthcoming stalled front on the tail with the eastern edge separating and moving of before it can get to the lower latitudes.

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[Macrocane]

The FIM that was in agreement with the GFS in previous day has changed its solution in the latest run and now it has joined ECMWF, CMC and UKMET. In 144 hours:

[stormandan28]

I always thought Joe followed the Euro

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
I know the GFS siding with me makes odd bedfellows, but it fits the pattern that lead to all this. So in this case GFS fits with my idea

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Many of you remember Derek Ortt...here is his thoughts on the Pensacola News Journal

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl ... 2306220022[/quote]


I really miss his input on the board. He was my personal favorite Met...looks like the Tallahassee NWS is buying in to the Euro solution as they have for the second day in a row mentioned that they believe that Debby will ultimately go West my friend and the closest approach point for Debby to the Fl Panhandle will be sometime Sunday when she is projected to be about 250 southwest of Panama City. If she sends us a few decent dousings I'll be satisfied. My yard is a thirstin' for some water...

[Cuda17]

Bigger picture, 15 frame live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Pretty large system!

Man... you are not kidding! Just look at how far out the cloud bands reach!

[Ivanhater]

Many of you remember Derek Ortt...here is his thoughts on the Pensacola News Journal

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl ... 2306220022

I really miss his input on the board. He was my personal favorite Met...looks like the Tallahassee NWS is buying in to the Euro solution as they have for the second day in a row mentioned that they believe that Debby will ultimately go West my friend and the closest approach point for Debby to the Fl Panhandle will be sometime Sunday when she is projected to be about 250 southwest of Panama City. If she sends us a few decent dousings I'll be satisfied. My yard is a thirstin' for some water...

Mobile/Pensacola AFD siding with the GFS solution...it is an interesting forecast all around.

[psyclone]

There is just way too much shear this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico for Invest 96L to strengthen into a major storm.

Late June 1957 didn't care .

There are some huge reg flags with this future TC and if Hurricane Chris can form in waters that cold, Debby can certainly become a major hurricane which was shown by the models more than a couple times (even the Euro). There is uncertainty with the shear profiles and the track could go anywhere. I was even amazed some didn't even think it would ever become a TC as recently as yesterday! Weren't the models showing this feature since the 4th? Very long time.

Also this:

[

isn't it telling that you need to go back more than 50 years (1957) for your example? the fact is June storms are usually junk from a tropical perspective and rarely amount to more than a rain threat (although i do think that can be serious as allison 2001 proved). the upper levels are usually lousy and oceanic heat content is marginal. Alex of 2010 was a very impressive cane so it can happen. but if you're a probabilities person as i am, betting against june canes usually lets you cash a ticket.

[WeatherCat]

Don't like those Hou/Galv runs!

[Ivanhater]

Tropical moisture surging in the Gulf

[KatDaddy]

Any word on what Joe B is saying?

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Ivanhater"]Many of you remember Derek Ortt...here is his thoughts on the Pensacola News Journal

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl ... 2306220022[/quote]


I really miss his input on the board. He was my personal favorite Met...looks like the Tallahassee NWS is buying in to the Euro solution as they have for the second day in a row mentioned that they believe that Debby will ultimately go West my friend and the closest approach point for Debby to the Fl Panhandle will be sometime Sunday when she is projected to be about 250 southwest of Panama City. If she sends us a few decent dousings I'll be satisfied. My yard is a thirstin' for some water...[/quote]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD siding with the GFS solution...it is an interesting forecast all around.[/quote]


It sure is...I realize that it's not uncommon to have a lot of uncertainty at this point in the formation of a potential TC but to have two viable solutions that are basically 180 degrees apart is very intriguing. I guess I'd have a little more interest if there were a decent chance on Debby directly impacting NW Florida / Panhandle but since that is an outlier I'm probably not as engaged as I might be.

[Ivanhater]

Any word on what Joe B is saying?

Apparently he tweeted he is going with the GFS/Eastern solution.

[Bad_Hurricane]

Any word on what Joe B is saying?

Apparently he tweeted he is going with the GFS/Eastern solution.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
For a global model, ecmwf this far out has a pretty good looking storm, but heading for S Texas, opposite of GFS and me.

[ROCK]

lest not forget JB went with the Eastern (GFS) solution with IKE and we all know how that turned out.....

[ROCK]

not familair with that model? is that experimental?


18Z NAM rolling....21hrs...still holding serve...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ivanhater]

I'm sure the NHC is glad this does not have to be classified today. Usually, they follow the TVCN closely, which currently heads toward Tampa. However, with reliable models split, I wonder what they would do

[KatDaddy]

Thanks everyone. It's one large messy system

[Cyclenall]

isn't it telling that you need to go back more than 50 years (1957) for your example? the fact is June storms are usually junk from a tropical perspective and rarely amount to more than a rain threat (although i do think that can be serious as allison 2001 proved). the upper levels are usually lousy and oceanic heat content is marginal. Alex of 2010 was a very impressive cane so it can happen. but if you're a probabilities person as i am, betting against june canes usually lets you cash a ticket.

For the first line, not really. Some of the analogues point to 1957 so that is more wood to the fire. Its extremely rare but this June and set-up is better suited than any I've ever seen other than maybe 2005. If you bet against a June hurricane then you've already lost (Chris).

[ROCK]

it is a big dillema for sure...I bet they are hoping by tonight that either the GFS flips over or the others flip over to the GFS....that would solve a lot of problems...