ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

I didn't saw it posted this afternoon so here it is.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 221600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.6N 88.3W TO 26.0N 88.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221545Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.5N 88.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT 221544Z,
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS.
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 231600Z.//

[ROCK]

current steering....that is one big monster AC.....btw

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[NDG]

So far this is the best surface vorticity that 96L has spit out, perhaps it could become the dominant circulation.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 840_an.gif

Where would you put that at NDG ?

Near 24N & 87.7W

[Rgv20]

12zCMC Ensembles and 12zECMWF Ensembles favor the Western Gulf.....Its hard to go against the ECMWF Ensembles, IMO this possible TC more than likely is going to pose a threat to the Western Gulf. FWIW the 12zECMWF EPS Control Run has it making landfall about 50 to 75 miles south of Brownsville on Wednesday Evening while the Operational run has on top of Brownsville. Do not be surprise if the Euro trends a little further south in future runs.

12zCMC Ensemble Means Forecast Valid for Tuesday Morning....TC off the South Texas Coast.


12zECMWF Ensemble Means Forecast Valid for Tuesday Morning....TC just SE of Brownsville.

[NDG]

Compared to this morning it looks way better, with an impressive outflow on its eastern quadrant, quite a big circulation, no wonder is taking so long to get going.

I placed the L over where that possible LLC is getting going.

[MGC]

"Patience Grasshopper"

96L is a large disturbance. These large disturbances sometimes take quite a while to consolidate. I've witnessed this scenario unfold many times in my 45+ years of tracking hurricanes. The low north of the Yucatan is going to slowly lift north and acquire more convection. I'm going with a general northward motion with a turn to the west. The trough looks to have made its way about as far south as it is going to get and 96L is going to miss it. The ridge will build back from the Atlantic and push the system westward with time. It may take until late Sunday or Monday for the system to be named.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What sort of intensity are we looking at? Which model is the best for intesity? Im having trouble believing the GFS and CMC doomsday models. Tis the season

[SouthDadeFish]

I think it is starting to slowly wrap up. 21Z Vorticity analysis from CIMSS shows that the vort maxes are finally starting to consolidate off the tip of the NE Yucatan. Also, the mid and low level vort centers are becoming better aligned. It will be interesting to see what the 00Z analysis shows. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC give it 80% at 8pm.

[TheShrimper]

So far this is the best surface vorticity that 96L has spit out, perhaps it could become the dominant circulation.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 840_an.gif

Where would you put that at NDG ?

Near 24N & 87.7W

Better check again. 24N isn't even in the running and 87.7W is not even close to the focal point in the Vis. Loop you provided. Just my take on what stood out in the Vis.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Steve H.]

I believe that the center is further east than where 96L is shown. That small vorticity is spinning off to the west. The center is firing up just to the west of western Cuba. Not saying that will change the ultimate outcome of where it will go - but the center is further east then is shown on the map.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Lol, my post was removed so somebody else repost it?

[cycloneye]

Lol, my post was removed so somebody else repost it?

The TWO was already here when you posted it.

[TheShrimper]

I believe that the center is further east than where 96L is shown. That small vorticity is spinning off to the west. The center is firing up just to the west of western Cuba. Not saying that will change the ultimate outcome of where it will go - but the center is further east then is shown on the map.

That's what I see Steve, and you haven't been drinking all day like I have. I've got it closer to 86.0W give or take a few fifth's.... I mean tenths.

[Portastorm]

I believe that the center is further east than where 96L is shown. That small vorticity is spinning off to the west. The center is firing up just to the west of western Cuba. Not saying that will change the ultimate outcome of where it will go - but the center is further east then is shown on the map.

That's what I see Steve, and you haven't been drinking all day like I have. I've got it closer to 86.0W give or take a few fifth's.... I mean tenths.

Alright Shrimper ... we get it. You've been drinking all day. Now, let's focus our posts on 96L, shall we? Thanks.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFDL is somewhat Texas bound. The model looses the storm in the Gulf but sends the leftover energy west:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is somewhat Texas bound. The model looses the storm in the Gulf but sends the leftover energy west:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Ummm a change in track.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If you look at the VIS loop, anyone think there is a low in the centerish of the convection, at about 22.8N 86W? It's messy down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFDL is somewhat Texas bound. The model looses the storm in the Gulf but sends the leftover energy west:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Ummm a change in track.

Yep. Now we await the 18z HWRF, lets see if it sticks by big brother GFS.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Guys, that 4 panel HRW you post, where can I get that?