ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

#861 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:07 pm

18z HWRF is also westbound.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

#862 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:11 pm

TheShrimper wrote:
NDG wrote:
TheShrimper wrote:Where would you put that at NDG ?

Near 24N & 87.7W

Better check again. 24N isn't even in the running and 87.7W is not even close to the focal point in the Vis. Loop you provided. Just my take on what stood out in the Vis.

I am sure 100%, that LLC started slowing down and convection is starting to get closer to it and everything is starting to rotate around it at the surface.
MLC is still displaced due to the light westerly shear that is still present.

#863 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:13 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:If you look at the VIS loop, anyone think there is a low in the centerish of the convection, at about 22.8N 86W? It's messy down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Is not on the surface, that's a mid level vorticity.

Weatherfreak000 · #864 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:15 pm

Models backing away from development hmmmmm....

#865 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:17 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Models backing away from development hmmmmm....

Which models?

KatDaddy · #866 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:18 pm

Complex VIS satellite loop over the GOM this evening. A well defined tight LLC is spinning just N of the Yucatan and moving NW while a mid level circulation is spinning to its SE midway between the Yucatan and W tip of Cuba.

#867 Postby **lester** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:18 pm

AL96, 233N 879W, 30kts, 1004mb, DB INVEST

#868 Postby **Rgv20** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:19 pm

GFDL and HWRF are notoriously bad when there is a developing TC......Once their is a TD or TS then they are pretty good.

#869 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:19 pm

Watching the last of the visible loop this evening, I think I see what will probably be the LLC. Even the vortex that was spit out earlier is rotating around this loop.

We shall see.

Live loop (quick before it gets dark

): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

#870 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:20 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Models backing away from development hmmmmm....

Which models?

The HWRF has a very weak system, but see the post below yours.

#871 Postby **Nikki** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:20 pm

NDG wrote:
TheShrimper wrote:
NDG wrote:So far this is the best surface vorticity that 96L has spit out, perhaps it could become the dominant circulation.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 840_an.gif

Where would you put that at NDG ?

Near 24N & 87.7W

GOOD CALL NDG!!

#872 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:20 pm

lester wrote:AL96, 233N 879W, 30kts, 1004mb, DB INVEST

Here is the link to the 96L Best Track.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

#873 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:21 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Models backing away from development hmmmmm....

Which models?

The HWRF has a very weak system, but see the post below yours.

Yes, I know. Thank you. My point was to get the poster to clarify the comment.

#874 Postby **USTropics** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:23 pm

I've been following this all day on enhanced NASA satellite loops zoomed in and NDG is spot on with the vortex that scooted out towards the north/northwest of the persistent convection located in and around the Yucatan Channel about 2-3 hours ago but has since slowed down with some of the convection catching up and beginning to wrap around. The circluation noted in the Yucatan Channel is at the midlevels, with some hot towers looking to be firing up currently.

Weatherfreak000 · #875 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:24 pm

GFDL seems to stay weak, GFS spat out a random dissipation run last night. Either ukmet or nogaps keeps it weak can't remember which.

#876 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:24 pm

Text of 18z GFDL.

WHXX04 KWBC 222337
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUN 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.6 88.4 30./ 1.9
6 22.9 88.8 310./ 5.1
12 23.6 89.5 314./ 9.6
18 24.6 89.7 351./ 9.9
24 25.3 89.6 6./ 7.3
30 25.8 89.5 13./ 5.1
36 26.6 89.3 14./ 8.6
42 27.2 89.2 9./ 6.0
48 27.4 89.6 288./ 4.1
54 26.9 90.6 243./10.1
60 26.6 91.3 249./ 6.9
66 26.6 91.8 264./ 4.0
72 26.6 92.3 275./ 4.8
78 26.0 93.7 247./13.6

STORM DISSIPATED AT 78 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

#877 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:29 pm

I still stand by my estimate.

#878 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:30 pm

Here is the little eddy that looks to be a possible LLC... my untrained humble opinion only.. whether or not if sustains is anyone guess... very nice on the beach in Biloxi this evening...
q

#879 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:31 pm

NDG wrote:I still stand by my estimate.

Could I please have a link to that loop?

caneman · #880 Postby **caneman** » Fri Jun 22, 2012 7:31 pm

Cycloneye, that run has a 25 kt. storm though. Not seeing much here to get worked up about right now. Lots of rain though.

ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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