ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1001 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:01 am

Ukie is a northern shift
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1002 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:01 am

[quote="Ivanhater"]CMC looks like Louisiana/Texas border....

Northern shift....however, look how close it gets to the New Orleans

it had a similar run a few days ago.... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1003 Postby lebron23 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:02 am

CMC staying fairly consistent..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1004 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:06 am

JonathanBelles wrote:The models remain split down the middle, but hurricane hunters will investigate tomorrow afternoon. 3-4" of rain expected on the Florida gulf coast. What made the NHC bump it up the 80%, and what happens after 24 hours?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... continues/

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How do they tell difference between mid-level and low-level circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1005 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:06 am

Please tell me this is not an east shift in the models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1006 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:07 am

CMC still prefers the west solution for sure....that 6 runs now...EURO might clear some things up...
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#1007 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:08 am

IMO it's pretty easy to see where the center is trying form....shear is still an issue for it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1008 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:10 am

The models are split on where 96L will go.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1009 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:11 am

ROCK wrote:CMC still prefers the west solution for sure....that 6 runs now...EURO might clear some things up...


Even if the models stay the same..they GFS and TVCN still are split and we are in the same boat.But the NHC will have to issue a track at some point
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#1010 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:11 am

0zGFS Ensemble means show a very weak signal of the low in the Western Gulf due east of Brownsville by Wednesday Morning.....This is going to be such a delicate forecast!

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#1011 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:13 am

Between the lack of model agreement, and piss poor organization but claims of imminent organization, this has to be one of the most frustrating systems to follow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1012 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:14 am

That little vortex might actually be the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1013 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:14 am

Ivanhater wrote:Ukie is a northern shift


The UKMET moves it NW from 96hrs to 120hrs, I cant see that happening since the west coast trough should flatten out the ridge and keep moving whatever is in the Gulf west.....Orientation of the Ridge is going to be crucial.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1014 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:15 am

Invest 96 Blob is giving me a headache. I can easily see a scenario in which it does nothing but sloshes around the GOM for a few days, for example. Sooner or later one of the big players has to make a move, but in the meantime...let the model madness continue.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1015 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:15 am

The GFS Ensembles look to be like a split between the eastern solution into Florida and the other half have it going to Texas if Im reading this right so no real consensus

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1016 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:16 am

Actually...00z Canadian is a big shift east...takes it into central Louisiana then north into Arkansas

Image

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#1017 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:19 am

Man what if the GFS turns out to be correct :double:
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#1018 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:20 am

So if the storm splits the difference and heads into Louisiana, which models do we declare the victor? lol
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Re:

#1019 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:21 am

HouTXmetro wrote:So if the storm splits the difference and heads into Louisiana, which models do we declare the victor? lol


The Canadian model would be pretty close in that reguard
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#1020 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 12:25 am

The Past three runs of the CMC

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