ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

I wake up this morning thinking surely guidance has come together better and then my first look was this....


http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

[Portastorm]

Is there an ULL forming over SE TX? Will that help to stear it towards Florida? And do you guys see any swells likely for the TX coast? It seems to far North for a TX hit. I've never seen a storm that far North come back and hit TX. Been here 35 years

Thanks

Irak, the ULL is south of Sabine Pass and slowly sinking south. Right now it is providing enough shear to displace a lot of the convection to the east of the "center." It is progged to continue moving south into the Bay of Campeche and may ultimately help ventilate this system in a few days, IF, 96L moves into the WGOM. Air Force Met had a great post yesterday explaining all of this.

[bella_may]

30 to 40 MPH winds now being reported along the west coast of Florida. This thing is really intensifying.

[AHS2011]

Anyone seeing R.I. happening in the next few days?

[robbielyn]

30 to 40 MPH winds now being reported along the west coast of Florida. This thing is really intensifying.

Must be south of Tampa cuz its quiet here unless u talking marine winds

[mutley]

At this point, it seems the storm is headed northward and head faking both northeast and west, giving forecasters and computers some anxiety. But are air patterns moving fast enough that the northeast/west directional choice will be settled as the day goes by today?

no headfaking, its right on schedule as the system(no center) was supposed to be heading N at this point, as far as development goes that is on schedule..there was no true center so all this east west north south stuff was just guessing but today we seem to be well on the way if not already there to a center and hopefully a better solution..its a sheared system so the action is to the E, maybe that changes down the road but regardless there is plenty of moisture being run into florida today..if gfs verifies then that continues into next week if the others verify then that will decrease obviously, its been very wet in south florida since early may

Thanks, jlauderdal. I just started reading here about 96L and what's happening, and I'm trying to catch up. I was really just wondering when, during the next couple days, the models will become more confident and begin to establish a consensus.

[northjaxpro]

I wake up this morning thinking surely guidance has come together better and then my first look was this....


http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

Well Dean, that's about as much as divergence with the models as one would ever see with them.

[vaffie]

A ship an hour ago came within 75 miles (ESE) of the predicted center and reported the lowest pressure I've seen with this storm (1002.1 mb) and a sustained wind from the south at 28 knots.

[Dean4Storms]

So far the GFS has been right with the track, pretty much due north to a position south of the FL Panhandle whereas the ECMWF had it back near 90W on Friday's runs.

[robbielyn]

Could know at noon when gfs comes out

[Vortex]

Based on the latest Hi-res vis, surface reports, and the fact that organization is underway I fully anticipate TS debbie either on the 5pm advisory or a special advisory once recon confirms....Could make a run at Cat 1. Regardless flooding is going to be a big issue along the cental Gulf coast/FL....

[Hurricane Andrew]

0z ECMWF ensembles agree with the op.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

3z SREF is split, showing two lows.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... TUS087.gif

[lrak]

Is there an ULL forming over SE TX? Will that help to stear it towards Florida? And do you guys see any swells likely for the TX coast? It seems to far North for a TX hit. I've never seen a storm that far North come back and hit TX. Been here 35 years

Thanks

Irak, the ULL is south of Sabine Pass and slowly sinking south. Right now it is providing enough shear to displace a lot of the convection to the east of the "center." It is progged to continue moving south into the Bay of Campeche and may ultimately help ventilate this system in a few days, IF, 96L moves into the WGOM. Air Force Met had a great post yesterday explaining all of this.

Thanks Portastorm, I'll look for that discussion.

[StormingB81]

I know if this comes to florida the winds wont be the main worry.....all over Florida we have had so much rain here it could flood very quickly

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

Just looking at the Euro, it would seem it spins up pretty fast tonight. As AFM has stated, shear will still be an issue so well see if the Euro is correct in spinning this up by tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Based on the latest Hi-res vis, surface reports, and the fact that organization is underway I fully anticipate TS debbie either on the 5pm advisory or a special advisory once recon confirms....Could make a run at Cat 1. Regardless flooding is going to be a big issue along the cental Gulf coast/FL....

Yeah, a Carnival Cruise liner in the vicinity of where the broad Low pressure center is approximately located reported having barometric pressure of 1002 mb.

I think when Recon gets in there, we will likely see this system designated straight to TS Debby this afternoon. NHC had already hinted in their TWO at 8 a.m. that they may initiate TS watches/warningsalong portions of the Northern Gulf coast, and it definitely looks like that will happen later today.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Andrew]

CIMSS Shear Tendency
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[bella_may]

30 to 40 MPH winds now being reported along the west coast of Florida. This thing is really intensifying.

Must be south of Tampa cuz its quiet here unless u talking marine winds

That's what the WC Guy must of been talking about. Still though that's a big increase from yesterday!

[Rgv20]

The 0z Operational ECMWF has the majority of the Ensembles supporting the idea of a South Texas landfall.

0zECMWF Ensemble Means forecast valid for Tuesday Evening.


0zCMC Ensembles still agree on a more westward track to Texas rather than LA like the operational run showed.

[cycloneye]

This is from Bryan Norcross Facebook page:

Still on track and still just as confused a forecast for the Gulf system this morning. Winds in the Gulf have been measured right at tropical-storm strength, so the NHC might skip the Tropical Depression stage and go right to Tropical Storm Debby when it gets sufficiently organized. Right now, the upper winds are just unfavorable enough to limit organization (and they are pushing the rain toward... Florida). They are expected, however, to become somewhat more favorable, though not perfect, giving the system a chance to fully consolidate around the center. The first area of concern will be the northern Gulf. Flooding high tides, high waves, and dangerous beach conditions are expected. Watch for local warnings. The storm is expected to stay in the northern Gulf until Monday, then move either toward Florida or toward Texas/Mexico. When the NHC puts out its first track forecast, it will be interesting to see which scenario they choose. There is logic to each of them... though the historically best-performing model is the one aiming toward TX/MS. Stay tuned.