ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Hurricane Andrew
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#1301 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

H36, moving slowly SE
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal036.gif
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#1302 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

GFS @ 36 hrs has the ridge building back in. Westward it goes!
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Re:

#1303 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:39 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like GFS might go west this run!



at 36hr its splitting energy out and over FL.....same as other runs IMO...
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Re:

#1304 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:40 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:1001mb, 24hours.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif


this is already at 1001mbs so it may be underdoing the strength just a tad

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon Discussion

#1305 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:40 am

Here is Saturday's TCPOD:

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 231530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
       A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 23/2245Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
       A. 25/1200,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
       C. 25/1045Z
       D. 27.5N 88.2W
       E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
    3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
       WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.
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Re:

#1306 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:41 am

Dean4Storms wrote:GFS @ 36 hrs has the ridge building back in. Westward it goes!



If by West..you mean North East..then yes :lol:
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#1307 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:41 am

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 25/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 23/2245Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 25/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 25/1045Z
D. 27.5N 88.2W
E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: MISSION FOR 24/1200-1800Z FORM POD 12-035
WILL FLY AS ALREADY TASKED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
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#1308 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:42 am

Wow, it dropped the ridge in a hurry by 42 hrs.

My bad, looks like GFS is holding firm!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1309 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:43 am

maybe the GFS is shearing out 96 and that is what its picking up on....ejecting the MLC to the NE...IDK.....
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#1310 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:43 am

H48, sub 1000, attatched to trof?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal048.gif
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#1311 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:44 am

it will likely keep spiiting ot vorts till the shear relaxrs ... if it does. not going to stregthen much.
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#1312 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:44 am

H54, hatching Ernesto again.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal054.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1313 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

well the GFS has stuck to its guns....now we see if any other models follow...what a weird storm this has been to track...
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#1314 Postby Jevo » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

12Z GFS Initialized
Image

12Z GFS +24
Image

12Z GFS +48
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1315 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:45 am

ROCK wrote:maybe the GFS is shearing out 96 and that is what its picking up on....ejecting the MLC to the NE...IDK.....


IDK...pressure continues to drop on the GFS with 96L...Just odd
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#1316 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

H60, moving slowly SSE or SE
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal060.gif
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#1317 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

If the GFS does not verify (IMO likely not) this is going to be embarrassing! lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1318 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:47 am

gives birth to Ernesto at 66hr.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1319 Postby Sanibel » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 am

Once again, an undetermined center usually resolves poleward. I disagree with Aric. I think this one is obviously it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1320 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 am

Is it getting left behind?
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