ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

#1321 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:48 am

GGEM came east again to MS/LA border........

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al962012.png

#1322 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:49 am

vaffie wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:I think we are close to having Debby.

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
06/23/2012 1450 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 33.0 kts gusting to 44.7
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 °F
Water Temperature: 82.4 °F

Pressure dropping pretty fast now, impressive considering that at this time of the day pressures typically rise and we are close to the diurnal minimum. One minute windspeed of 39 knots. At this rate of strengthening, "Debbie" should have winds of 55+ mph by 1 pm central time and hurricane force winds later tonight.

Uh...no. It will not be a hurricane by later tonight. It's right on track per what we were saying yesterday. I'm not surprised at where it is (to quote you yesterday). It's deepening...but not explosively and it can't. There are no thunderstorms over the center.

LET'S NO LOSE OUR HEADS.

ROCK · #1323 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:49 am

that is one huge vort not to be the LLC....it aint some ticky tack eddies we have seen over the last few days.....

#1324 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:50 am

I wonder if the GFS this run is doing an Elena...we will see

Aric Dunn · #1325 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:51 am

ROCK wrote:that is one huge vort not to be the LLC....it aint some ticky tack eddies we have seen over the last few days.....

look just to east of that next to the convection .. you can see another vort about to show up .

#1326 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:51 am

robbielyn wrote:Brian Norcross just said its looking like its already a ts but obviously waiting for nhc to call it and they are not ready I guess to call it.

Its normal to meander when center is forming.

Im not a met I can't even say I stayed at an holiday inn express last night :either

It is a TS. A sheared, baroclinically forced TS. They are waiting for recon.

And again we will have a storm that goes STRAIGHT to TS...skipping the TD phase.

#1327 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:51 am

H72, moving barely SE
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif

ROCK · #1328 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:52 am

well it ejected Ernesto and now its going to stall in the GOM at 69hr...

SouthFLTropics · #1329 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:52 am

The fork in the road. Which way to go??? Take the red pill...take the blue pill...

#1330 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 am

Moves faster to NE at H78
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal078.gif

SunnyThoughts · #1331 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 am

How soon do you guys think TS watches and warnings go out and how on earth will the NHC determine the location of those watches and warning? With the divergence in the models, probably be a large portion of the Gulf Coast in the warned area? I remember last night even one or two of the models had it moving north to the point where it was almost brushing the coastline BEFORE starting its westward movement.

#1332 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:53 am

Sloooow crawl East....still in the Gulf Tuesday...

HouTXmetro · #1333 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:54 am

Looks like Elena is Deeper storm

ROCK · #1334 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:55 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Looks like Elena is Deeper storm

I think its Ernesto next up.....he was talking about Elena from awhile back...

#1335 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:56 am

H84, moving E
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal084.gif

HouTXmetro · #1336 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:56 am

My bad, I need to keep up! Lol

floridasun78 · #1337 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:56 am

my sister may see hurr hunter in gulf she fly in to miami from cali i want to cali their do fly over gulf on way to their and way back

#1338 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:56 am

I would have liked to see a Gulfstream jet mission to sample the upper enviroment,but so far is not on the list of future missions.

Hurricaneman · #1339 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:How soon do you guys think TS watches and warnings go out and how on earth will the NHC determine the location of those watches and warning? With the divergence in the models, probably be a large portion of the Gulf Coast in the warned area? I remember last night even one or two of the models had it moving north to the point where it was almost brushing the coastline BEFORE starting its westward movement.

I'm starting to think the models are starting to catch on to the midwestern shortwave and are starting to shift east, if I were a betting man I would put watches out from Beaumont to Pensacola

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1340 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:57 am

LF H90, FL
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif

ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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