ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

[Ikester]

Do you all think the NHC will pull the trigger at 5?

More than likely. The NHC at 2pm already gave multiple clues that they were considering it. "Per buoy...Sat. data and preliminary recon data...." That tells me right there they just need confirmation of a closed center. If they find it, it's Debby.

I think you meant to say a well defined closed center. The center is certainly closed. There is NO DOUBT about that.

And for the record...I do not see how they DON'T upgrade it at 4...other than the fact it's Avila working the desk. This is a TS.

Yes, thank you. Small "slips of the tongue" are huge mistakes in weather, aren't they

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL962012
A. 23/18:37:40Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
087 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 15 kt
E. 063 deg 14 nm
F. 165 deg 17 kt
G. 065 deg 73 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C / 340 m
J. 24 C / 338 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF302 01AAA INVEST OB 07
MAX FL WIND 17 KT NE QUAD 18:11:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 26 KT SW QUAD 18:52:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 231927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL962012
A. 23/18:37:40Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
087 deg 50 min W
C. NA
D. 15 kt
E. 063 deg 14 nm
F. 165 deg 17 kt
G. 065 deg 73 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C / 340 m
J. 24 C / 338 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF302 01AAA INVEST OB 07
MAX FL WIND 17 KT NE QUAD 18:11:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 26 KT SW QUAD 18:52:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
PEAK SFC WND 32KTS NW QUAD AT 17:08:20Z
;

[Air Force Met]

Yes, thank you. Small "slips of the tongue" are huge mistakes in weather, aren't they

Yep. I know what you meant...but some out there might have been confused. And for the record...I think its organized enough. I've seen them upgrade uglier garbage than this...

[Dave]

Thanks Chris for the info ^^ there!

[Ivanhater]

It will be interesting to see the first track...the NHC likes to follow the TVCN model (blend) which currently loops around Nola into the Florida Panhandle...we will see

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231936
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 24 20120623
192900 2457N 08655W 9736 00275 0046 +241 +223 227034 034 026 001 00
192930 2457N 08652W 9731 00280 0046 +240 +231 224034 036 025 001 00
193000 2457N 08649W 9737 00274 0046 +239 +232 223034 035 022 002 00
193030 2457N 08647W 9736 00276 0047 +237 +232 222034 035 020 003 00
193100 2457N 08644W 9735 00276 0047 +240 +227 222035 036 021 002 00
193130 2457N 08642W 9736 00276 0047 +236 +235 221032 035 020 002 00
193200 2457N 08639W 9735 00277 0048 +230 +230 220032 033 017 003 01
193230 2457N 08637W 9737 00277 0049 +235 +230 220036 037 022 000 00
193300 2457N 08634W 9734 00279 0049 +238 +222 220037 038 022 000 00
193330 2457N 08631W 9736 00279 0050 +238 +221 215036 037 021 002 00
193400 2458N 08629W 9733 00282 0050 +220 +220 219036 037 023 002 01
193430 2458N 08626W 9739 00276 //// +204 //// 221035 036 023 006 01
193500 2458N 08624W 9734 00279 0051 +230 +230 214031 035 017 005 01
193530 2458N 08621W 9756 00264 0054 +230 +230 211035 036 023 012 01
193600 2458N 08619W 9752 00266 //// +206 //// 216036 037 032 012 01
193630 2458N 08617W 9731 00285 //// +214 //// 221037 038 027 009 01
193700 2458N 08615W 9736 00281 //// +221 //// 216034 037 025 008 01
193730 2458N 08613W 9728 00287 //// +225 //// 210036 038 022 009 01
193800 2458N 08612W 9738 00279 //// +231 //// 207036 039 026 013 01
193830 2458N 08610W 9737 00279 //// +229 //// 203035 038 025 014 01
$$
;

Flt lvl: 39 kts; SFMR 27 kts

[Cainer]

And we have Debby! Hard to believe that we've had 4 named storms already. For the record, Debby forming today beats Dennis 05's record by 12 days, as Dennis became a TS on July 5. If the NHC upgrades the Azores system in mid-May to a TS (which is possible IMO, especially since they classified Chris and it became a hurricane in a similar environment), then Chris was the earliest 4th storm by 16 days, and Debby will be the earliest 5th storm by 19 days, beating out Emily of '05.

And with that, I'm all out of fun stats. In any case, Debby will be a very interesting storm to track.

[gatorcane]

This WV loop shows the two main features very well: 96L and the upper-level low anchored in the NW GOM. That upper-level low is keeping this system in check right now as it is inducing a good bit of SW shear over 96L keeping all of the convection to the east of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

The oranges on the top of the loop show dry air and ridging from High pressure building over the Central U.S. Just how much it can build eastward will dictate the further track of 96L.

[tailgater]

Here's the VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 18:37:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°54'N 87°50'W (25.9N 87.8333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 313 miles (503 km) to the SSE (154°) from New Orle

[cycloneye]

This WV loop shows the two main features very well: 96L and the upper-level low anchored in the NW GOM. That upper-level low is keeping this system in check right now as it is inducing a good bit of SW shear over 96L keeping all of the convection to the east of the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

That ULL will move SW allowing better conditions in the next couple of days.

[Dave]

[Cyclenall]

The center is going to continue to reform under intense convection, until conditions are a little better. I think the Panhandle is a pretty safe bet for landfall.

I think any area predicted for landfall is an unsafe bet. I've rarely if ever have seen such disagreement within a confined space and timeframe and find it comical and fascinating.

TS Debby has been a TS probably since this morning and with a pressure of 1002 mb eariler, that would be a first for an invest so likely it was a TS. It's almost like a Wpac system as some said yesterday. Its under the Gulf loop current right now.

Do you guys think the nhc will just put the northern gulf coast in the cone for now? That's my guess since there's a shorter amount of notice for this area than there is for Texas

For the track, I think the NHC will just show it moving northwards slowly and then close to stationary near LA to split the difference and show the tremendous uncertainty.

And for the record...I do not see how they DON'T upgrade it at 4...other than the fact it's Avila working the desk. This is a TS.

Yep, I saw no way for them not to trigger it. LOL at the Avila working the desk part . Don't they come to agreement before releasing advisories with the rest of the staff? It can't just be one person's opinion right?

And for the record...I do not see how they DON'T upgrade it at 4...other than the fact it's Avila working the desk. This is a TS.

I'm on page refresh mode waiting for the maps to hit at any moment.

Not for another hour unless its a special package.

[USTropics]

Same Here, I Have Not Got An Update Yet...It Shows INVEST At End Of Line

for anyone dealing with this issue, the problem may be with your cache. Since this is the renaming of a previous document, clearing your cache should fix the problem.

[HurricaneBrain]

We have Debby.

[Ikester]

Same Here, I Have Not Got An Update Yet...It Shows INVEST At End Of Line

for anyone dealing with this issue, the problem may be with your cache. Since this is the renaming of a previous document, clearing your cache should fix the problem.

Ahhh! Thank you!!

[thundercam96]

Same Here, I Have Not Got An Update Yet...It Shows INVEST At End Of Line

for anyone dealing with this issue, the problem may be with your cache. Since this is the renaming of a previous document, clearing your cache should fix the problem.

I Missed The Updated (invest_al042012.invest) Line

[Rgv20]

It will be interesting to see the first track...the NHC likes to follow the TVCN model (blend) which currently loops around Nola into the Florida Panhandle...we will see

I will be surprised if they used the TVCN, I'm more interested as to what they have to say about the GFS. Personally I would use a blend of the 12zECMWF, 12zUKMET, and 12zHWRF. But the safest bet is just showing Debby stationary south of LA for a couple of days and stress to the public that this is a very very low track forecast.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231946
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 25 20120623
193900 2458N 08608W 9734 00283 //// +234 //// 204034 035 022 008 01
193930 2458N 08606W 9735 00282 //// +236 //// 206033 034 020 007 01
194000 2458N 08604W 9734 00282 //// +238 //// 205033 034 019 005 01
194030 2458N 08602W 9737 00282 //// +237 //// 205032 033 017 002 01
194100 2458N 08601W 9733 00285 //// +236 //// 206031 032 017 002 01
194130 2458N 08559W 9733 00286 //// +236 //// 209032 033 016 002 01
194200 2458N 08557W 9733 00286 //// +238 //// 209032 034 016 001 01
194230 2459N 08555W 9732 00287 //// +235 //// 209032 033 016 003 01
194300 2459N 08553W 9671 00344 //// +230 //// 211033 034 015 003 01
194330 2459N 08551W 9621 00391 //// +228 //// 212034 035 015 002 01
194400 2459N 08550W 9634 00380 //// +228 //// 212032 034 014 002 01
194430 2459N 08548W 9627 00387 //// +228 //// 211032 033 012 003 01
194500 2459N 08546W 9629 00385 //// +230 //// 210032 034 012 003 01
194530 2459N 08544W 9630 00384 //// +229 //// 210033 034 018 004 01
194600 2459N 08542W 9627 00387 //// +225 //// 212034 035 019 005 01
194630 2459N 08540W 9631 00384 //// +226 //// 211035 035 019 005 01
194700 2459N 08538W 9629 00386 //// +227 //// 209034 035 019 003 01
194730 2459N 08537W 9630 00385 //// +225 //// 209034 034 018 005 01
194800 2459N 08535W 9630 00386 //// +227 //// 210033 034 018 006 01
194830 2459N 08533W 9631 00384 //// +229 //// 214034 036 023 004 01
$$
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