ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nice map houtex. Can clearly see the ull moving southward now and the shear impacting Debby.becoming more southerly. In response she is definitely blowing up convection wise tonight since the storms aren't being blown off to the east

[Weatherfreak000]

Models seem to be consolidating now, east solution seems alot more viable.

[lebron23]

Models seem to be consolidating now, east solution seems alot more viable.

There not even close to consolidating lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree vaffie. Has a much better overall appearance tonight and for the first time can actually see storms blowing up closer to the center as time goes by. Could have a formidable storm in the morning if it can sustain it.

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian did shift Eastward a bit but it was already saying Biloxi area earlier so it was being discounted

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This satellite loop gives you a pretty good visual idea of where the LLC is. As you can see, it's still clearly exposed. Just a tad bit East of where the NHC progged it to be but I can see it crawling west now.

[thundercam96]

11 PM GFS Ensambles... Most Having Taking The East Solution Into Florida....

[Rgv20]

The 0zUKEMT which has been pretty consisting in a Texas Landfall, Flips to a NO landfall by Wednesday Evening

[TampaCE]

Impressive -- the feeder band approaching Tampa Bay appears to be showing some reds on the radar and is actually getting stronger. Will be interesting what conditions are seen across the Bay area from this one.

Here is St Pete the rain is coming down at a pretty good clip, probably 0.5 inch per hour rate or so and for the first time the winds have started to pick up a bit, they're probably in the 15 to 20 mph range. I noticed quite a bit of street flooding here in NE St Pete and the water level seems to be elevated by a couple feet which is causing some additional street flooding but nothing too severe. The street flooding was worse at 6 PM than now.

[CrazyC83]

Indeed the GFS may have been right all along?

I'd say the NHC should leave it to see if it is a trend, but by 12Z if the movement continues then change the track.

[Evil Jeremy]

11 PM GFS Ensambles... Most Having Taking The East Solution Into Florida....

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

Those are actually the ensembles from the 5:30pm, 18z GFS run.


As for the UKMET and CMC making big shifts east.... the migraines returned. Just when you think it's all figured out, the UKMET, the first model to indicate Texas, leaves the state for NOLA... ugh...

[lebron23]

I trust the NHC more than these flip flopping models.

[HouTXmetro]

Hmm...one more hour till the Euro. about to get real interesting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Rgv, at what heading does it show debby going to new Orleans?And what direction afterwards?

[crimi481]

Debbie does N.Y. - then makes left

Ridge to her North is breaking down - I believe -as seen on this WV Loop
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

Disclaimer: I do not know

[Rgv20]

Its traveling NW and continues NW after it..

[Weatherfreak000]

More time passes more NGOM looks good. EURO might be ready to fold tonight....

[lebron23]

I'm sorry, but the Tropical Forecast Points when placed on this loop are missed well to the north and east already or my eyes are playing tricks on me!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I Agree. It's Missed The So Called "Turn" ( So I Think )

Its not suppose to turn west until 20-24 hours from now..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: Its traveling NW and continues NW after it..

Thanks. I think it was kwt who mentioned earlier tonight this could be a coast runner. Looking more possible. Not good for flooding

[Stormcenter]

IMO it sure looks like Debby is either still stationary or maybe drifting ever so slowly northward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html