ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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#2261 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:26 am

DABHou wrote:Is it too early for Houston/Galveston to breathe a sigh of relief?



Yes. Very very early.
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#2262 Postby Jevo » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:26 am

DABHou wrote:Is it too early for Houston/Galveston to breathe a sigh of relief?


Indeed.. HWRF still verified its 18z track with the latest 0z run..

Somewhere between Corpus and Galv.... Keep an eye out
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#2263 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 am

A little off topic, has their ever being a TC that has given models such fits like this current situation?? I mean for being in the short term forecast this is crazy!
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#2264 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 am

AJC3 wrote:Gang... please keep the model discussion in the model thread. Thanks.


What do you think about whats going on right now?
Do you think Debby will still track to the west?
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Re:

#2265 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 am

DABHou wrote:Is it too early for Houston/Galveston to breathe a sigh of relief?


Not at all.... Never let your guard down with a stalled Storm. Keep in mind one model still has a Texas landfall, even though it's an outlier. I think we will know a lot more by morning.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2266 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:27 am

Wow I'm pretty stunned with this latest Euro run. Big question is will it continue to waver or are we moving into a consensus for a northern GOM landfall.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2267 Postby sponger » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:28 am

Wow! I was hoping for TX as they need the rain way more than we do. But now LA in play big time.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Models

#2268 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:28 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Wow I'm pretty stunned with this latest Euro run. Big question is will it continue to waver or are we moving into a consensus for a northern GOM landfall.




As am I...but we will find out today wheather or not Debbys makes its move west.
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Re: Re:

#2269 Postby DABHou » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:28 am

Jevo wrote:
DABHou wrote:Is it too early for Houston/Galveston to breathe a sigh of relief?


Indeed.. HWRF still verified its 18z track with the latest 0z run..

Somewhere between Corpus and Galv.... Keep an eye out


Thanks You. I've got 2 elderly parents on oxygen. I will keep on getting things in order. Never hurts to be ready early. :)
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#2270 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:28 am

I was saying we shouldn't rule out a NOLA landfall.

IMO I think we might see a compromise of the Euro and GFS solutions. So it could be anywhere from NOLA all the way to Florida.

Just my opinion folks.

Props to the GFS however. While the Euro flip-flopped the GFS stayed put.
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#2271 Postby psyclone » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:29 am

that is a remarkable shift by the Euro. and a rather abrupt turn northward after landfall.
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#2272 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:30 am

ULL appears to be weakening, not sure of the significance.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2273 Postby USTropics » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:30 am

BTW looks like the COC is coming into range on the Tampa radar.

Image
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#2274 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:31 am

Looks like a New Orleans nightmare from the Euro. Can't believe the Euro bulked to the GFS! What an embarrassment!! :( :oops: Biggest one since Hurricane Ernesto of 2006 in which I still have bad memories of :roll: .
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Re: Re:

#2275 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:32 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So for the 0z summary, major shifts to the East by most major models and the GFS remaining persistent with it's solution. Interesting to see how the NHC responds.


They never should had thrown out the TVCN/TVCA models, they never fail.

Yeah it was really weird why they did that...

But it all goes back to Debbie! Just because some super computer model says so and so might happen, they could be very wrrong.

Stay safe everyone!
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#2276 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:32 am

I'm not sold on anything.....I think Texas to Fl. are still under the gun. IMO
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#2277 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:32 am

Looks like New Orleans could get battered....but, we have time to wait and see. Need to see another round of runs with the same scenarios before I start to get concerned about buying a few supplies if the lights were to go out....
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#2278 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:34 am

Perhaps these models are changing because of the information gathered by the Hurricane hunters today. I would imagine this latest model run has the entire package of info.
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#2279 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:35 am

Now the question is whether or not this is just the beginning of a trend for the Euro. It will be very very interesting to see if they move even further East for the 12z. I tend to trust the Euro but it is looking more and more likely that they had it pretty wrong for a long time on this one so I don't know if I can trust them yet, although we are getting closer and closer and the Euro should be pretty reliable at this point.

When does the NHC update their track? Very curious to see what they do now. A lot of people may wake up tomorrow and be quite shocked/confused.
Last edited by BigB0882 on Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2280 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:37 am

Cyclenall wrote:Looks like a New Orleans nightmare from the Euro. Can't believe the Euro bulked to the GFS! What an embarrassment!! :( :oops: Biggest one since Hurricane Ernesto of 2006 in which I still have bad memories of :roll: .


Not yet, The GFS is still way out to lunch. So it wouldn't say it buckled. It still has a westward component.
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