ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Looks like a New Orleans nightmare from the Euro. Can't believe the Euro bulked to the GFS! What an embarrassment!! Biggest one since Hurricane Ernesto of 2006 in which I still have bad memories of .

To make you feel better, I don't think the GFS is 100% right either.

I said it a couple of days ago, that it always seems that when the GFS and Euro seem to be apart so far, they are neither right nor wrong, an average between the two always seems to be the correct solution.
Tonight, we have started seen a concensus between the two.

[HeeBGBz]

This will make my week more interesting.

[Kingarabian]

Now the question is whether or not this is just the beginning of a trend for the Euro. It will be very very interesting to see if they move even further East for the 12z. I tend to trust the Euro but it is looking more and more likely that they had it pretty wrong for a long time on this one so I don't know if I can trust them yet, although we are getting closer and closer and the Euro should be pretty reliable at this point.

I don't think they had it wrong. The ULL shearing Debbie has not let up up yet and Debbie remains a some what shallow and exposed system.

Faster and stronger Debbie intensifies the more likely it goes west.

[sponger]

Huge increase in convection tonight. Anyone know whose on tonight at the NHC? I don't envy their job. The good thing is there is plenty of time to adjust the track if need be. My guess is they will wait until the 5:00 pm. Just my opinion!

[Jevo]

Huge increase in convection tonight. Anyone know whose on tonight at the NHC? I don't envy their job. The good thing is there is plenty of time to adjust the track if need be. My guess is they will wait until the 5:00 pm. Just my opinion!

I can imagine this was the scene inside...

"Uhh Stacy remember how we were going to base our entire forecast off of the ECMWF..... Well yeah the 0z run smacks it right into New Orleans"



Thought I'd lighten the mood around here since we have a long 3 days ahead of us

[Lane]

Outer bands starting to reach Apalachicola and port st joe.

[Stormcenter]

It "looks" like Debby is now drifting westward. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[HouTXmetro]

His forecast is not a bust just yet... keep in mind the cone of uncertainty includes the latest Euro scenario. Cutting it close though. I can foresee the models changing again before it's all said and done. The question is where.

[Stratosphere747]

Huge increase in convection tonight. Anyone know whose on tonight at the NHC? I don't envy their job. The good thing is there is plenty of time to adjust the track if need be. My guess is they will wait until the 5:00 pm. Just my opinion!

Pasch

[Jevo]

His forecast is not a bust just yet... keep in mind the cone of uncertainty includes the latest Euro scenario. Cutting it close though. I can foresee the models changing again before it's all said and done. The question is where.

Oh no doubt.. I was just being silly

[HouTXmetro]

It "looks" like Debby is now drifting westward. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

I can't tell, however I do see the convection expanding towards the LLC. May not be nakes too much longer. if that occurs it's all systems go.

[Lane]

This storm is starting to remind me of hurricane Erin back in 93 or 92 in some ways. She drifted along the coast west then back east and made landfall in P'cola FL.

[SunnyThoughts]

It "looks" like Debby is now drifting westward. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

Not sure if the center is moving, or the entire system is just expanding and growing in size.

[Jevo]

some 0z Spaghetti for yas

[sponger]

Question for all of you model guru's. Where is this big strong high on the gfs runs? Is it missing it completely or does it retro grade all the way to the pacific?

[BigB0882]

I wouldn't be surprised to find out by this time tomorrow that NOLA is the western outlier with the models. FL seems like a big magnet at the moment. I love storms but I'm trying to finish a program to get certified to teach and I don't feel like going any extra days to make up for what we might miss if Debby follows the EURO track. It would come directly over my area.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

[SunnyThoughts]

Area of convection firing up to the south...Just above Cuba also

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir4.html

And to the poster about Hurricane Erin, yeah I remember that one well, rode it out at home thinking it wouldn't be so bad...boy was I wrong. It HAMMERED us here in Santa Rosa county.

[Jevo]

Looks like Joe B saw the Euro and changed his tune a little... He's been a Tweeting madman over the last 15 mins

‏

@BigJoeBastardi: Worst possible scenario is for this to deepen and move slowly, coming in N of mouth of Miss as cat 2 or 3. Horrible track for New Orleans

@BigJoeBastardi: In fact the slow moving, intensifying hurricane this close will be piling water back west into Lakes Bourne and Ponchartrain next 3 days

@BigJoeBastardi: There is no change in my idea, except to say the increased threat to se louisiana is disturbing I dont believe tracks off to ne or e

@BigJoeBastardi: Guess what.We do have a slow moving pain in the neck storm in the gulf in June as per the pattern ideas from preseason.End game even tougher

Bed time.. see you all in the in 6 hours or so

[sponger]

Huge increase in convection tonight. Anyone know whose on tonight at the NHC? I don't envy their job. The good thing is there is plenty of time to adjust the track if need be. My guess is they will wait until the 5:00 pm. Just my opinion!

I can imagine this was the scene inside...

"Uhh Stacy remember how we were going to base our entire forecast off of the ECMWF..... Well yeah the 0z run smacks it right into New Orleans"



Thought I'd lighten the mood around here since we have a long 3 days ahead of us

That is exactly how I picture Stewart. Except with a overflowing ash tray of half smoked cigs.

[ozonepete]

Wow, Debby has certainly drifted more northward over the last few hours. It better make the turn west soon, but even if it turns soon it now looks like the northern part of the convective shield could strafe the whole Gulf coast with some intense rain as it moves westward, especially if that ULL keeps moving away and the lowering shear allows it to intensify.


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