
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Moderator: S2k Moderators
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Cough Cough. Uh no.bamajammer4eva wrote:So far GFS has been right about Debby for over 2 weeks now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO finally come around
GCANE wrote:The ULL looks to be firmly entrenched at about 27N 93W
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Looks like Debby will track into it and IMHO will put a lid on organizing Debby.
The UL vorticity will push down on Debby's ML / LL vorticity --> hindering spin up.
Could see a lot of displaced, deep convection from shear in the form of strong MCS's however.
Lane wrote:Apalachicola has to be feeling TS conditions, why have the not extended the watches/warnings east. Even if the storm goes West. If the conditions are experienced wouldn't that warrent an advisory?
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MARINERS...
AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG THE OFFSHORE LEGS OF GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FL. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES
AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED UNTIL THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 11 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ770-775-250915-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS MAY INCREASE SOON. THE LATEST AREA FORECAST
IS FOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15
TO 17 FEET...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE.
$$
ozonepete wrote:But more importantly it will now have an influence on track. The whole point has always been that if the ULL didn't move out soon enough and the ridge didn't build down deep enough into the southeast that Debby would have to go further east as opposed to moving into Texas. That scenario is becoming very likely now. If the weakness (troughing) over the east is weak enough Debby will turn to the north (more towards GFS solution) but if the ULL doesn't move much but does weaken then Debby can still strengthen anyway. It is still a really tough call and, as Pasch said, there's low confidence.
caneman wrote:With that large shift on the Euro, GFS consistency, the 5 AM disco and what is taking place the NHC should have shifted right to La. and points East. Looks like a little face saving going with shifts instead.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests