ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Due south of P'Cola and still drifting north............


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[northjaxpro]

With the shift in track and the uncertain statements, it probably would have been prudent to extend warning eastward or issue a watch. THE NHC typically doesn't make drastic track changes from advisory to advisory but they did indicate in discussion the likelihood of a trend in track forecast

Look for more adjustments with the track toward the east today. Oh what a day potentially we are in for and the near term with the changes we are going to see.

[ozonepete]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.

Well that's not good if it really is moving in more rapidly towards Louisiana.

[GCANE]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.

Well that's not good if it really is moving in more rapidly towards Louisiana.

MSLP taking a nose dive at the buoy under the hot-tower

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[ozonepete]

Funny in the end that if you had just split the difference between the Euro and the GFS you would have come up with Louisiana anyway.

[Dean4Storms]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.

I'm concerned with that heavy of convection that some of the flight level winds seen in earlier Recon of 60kts might be making it down to the surface under those!!

[Dean4Storms]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.

Well that's not good if it really is moving in more rapidly towards Louisiana.

Actually unless the shear really lets up and this wraps that heavier convection will be well east of LA over MS, AL and FL Panhandle IMO.

[GCANE]

Another view from TRMM.

Very impressive to say the least.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.18pc.jpg

[GCANE]

Cloud tops a good 55K ft if not more

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... RESALT.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

06Z GFS hasn't changed hardly a bit!

[Dean4Storms]

With the shift in track and the uncertain statements, it probably would have been prudent to extend warning eastward or issue a watch. THE NHC typically doesn't make drastic track changes from advisory to advisory but they did indicate in discussion the likelihood of a trend in track forecast

Yep, the C-Man tower just offshore Appalachicola is already sustained over TS Force and that is well ENE of the center.......

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SGOF1

[Hurricane Alexis]

Nothing new from the 06z GFS....stalls it for a couple of days and pushes it towards the big bend

[bucman1]

How will track changes affect the weather in the Tampa area
?

[GCANE]

GOES shows that the hot-tower fired for about 2.5 hrs

Pretty cool feature when hit the ANIMATE Button

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... atest.html

[Dean4Storms]

GOES shows that the hot-tower fired for about 2.5 hrs

Pretty cool feature when hit the ANIMATE Button

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... atest.html

That also shows the LLC pretty good on a bee line toward Mobile, IMO!

This is my opinion and I'm not an official source. You should get all your info from Official Sources!

[KWT]

Well things certainly have got interesting, models have trended eastwards a good deal and the ECM is looking quite bad right now!

Also organisation seems to have really improved, depending on track looks like a hurricane is very possble now.

[StormingB81]

WHere does the GFS take it now..I know yesterday it was close to tampa and near orlando...whats it showing now?

[GulfHills]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.

What is a hot tower?

[linkerweather]

00z CMC also has shifted to a N. Florida solution. What a forecast mess.

[KWT]

Ouch, ECM has shifted way far north and east, thats quite the bust from that model and whilt at the moment its not a win for the GFS, its looking quite good at the moment!

GFS heads north and then bends back eastwards which is still somewhat different to the ECM which heads northwards then bends west/North-west and heads into NOLA, same thing as the UKMO does.