ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[KWT]

WHere does the GFS take it now..I know yesterday it was close to tampa and near orlando...whats it showing now?

Pretty much exactly the same thing, though that does rather depend IMO on it sheddng some energy off to the NE and that helps strengthend the weakness and take it NE/E.

This is going to be a most interesting day, we need to see whether it just stalls out or whether we start to see a west drift. Maybe Elena 85 is a decent analog afterall in terms of track?

[robbielyn]

How will track changes affect the weather in the Tampa area
?

Watch Josh on baynews9 for current forecast. Seems its going to be rain rain rain. Bands going north.

[KWT]

Lots of rain moving into the Big Bend region, going to be a very wet day up there and as long as they are on the north/eastern side its going to be a wet set-up.

To be fair, it does look like its wrapping around a littl better than yesterday.

[robbielyn]

WHere does the GFS take it now..I know yesterday it was close to tampa and near orlando...whats it showing now?

Pretty much exactly the same thing, though that does rather depend IMO on it sheddng some energy off to the NE and that helps strengthend the weakness and take it NE/E.

This is going to be a most interesting day, we need to see whether it just stalls out or whether we start to see a west drift. Maybe Elena 85 is a decent analog afterall in terms of track?

Boy do I remember elena. I was in Panama city had to go to a shelter 2 different times.

[linkerweather]

THanks Robbielyn! Minor track adjustments won't matter much. If GFS verifies then obviously wind and coastal concerns would increase especially along the Nature Coast, but not until Tues-WED. UNtil then, regardless of track, more rain and some gusty wind

How will track changes affect the weather in the Tampa area
?

Watch Josh on baynews9 for current forecast. Seems its going to be rain rain rain. Bands going north.

[linkerweather]

THanks Robbielyn! Minor track adjustments won't matter much. If GFS verifies then obviously wind and coastal concerns would increase especially along the Nature Coast, but not until Tues-WED. UNtil then, regardless of track, more rain and some gusty wind

How will track changes affect the weather in the Tampa area
?

Watch Josh on baynews9 for current forecast. Seems its going to be rain rain rain. Bands going north.

Hey by the way, you should all follow us on twitter @bn9weather

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds gusting to 35 mph almost constantly in St. Pete. Water level above normal in the backyard canal.
Low lying areas will experience tidal flooding near the coast.

[KWT]

Boy do I remember elena. I was in Panama city had to go to a shelter 2 different times.

Obviously its highly unlikely to get anything like as strong but trackwise some of the models are a splitting image of Elena's track. Of course the GFS maybe right and it'll scoot of way east into Florida.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

You called it yesterday kwt, a possible coast runner. If Debby does make the turn west does not look good for us. A possible hurricane going right along the coast. Days if rain and wind. Not good.

[GCANE]

What is a hot tower?

It is a rapidly rising cumulus-nimbus that punches thru the tropopause.

It creates rapid latent heating in the upper troposphere.

Usually rapid intensification occurs within 12 hrs after one fires.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQsKusqMdUU[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

Plane decending to operational altitud.

000
URNT15 KNHC 241047
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 07 20120624
104000 2858N 08652W 4847 06039 0239 -048 //// 092009 015 042 011 01
104030 2858N 08649W 4858 06029 0242 -052 //// 095009 010 044 010 01
104100 2857N 08647W 4858 06025 0241 -040 -040 091012 014 048 012 01
104130 2857N 08645W 4851 06040 0244 -047 //// 110012 015 050 011 01
104200 2856N 08643W 4853 06039 0247 -049 //// 112015 016 050 012 01
104230 2856N 08640W 4855 06035 0246 -046 //// 112018 020 051 012 01
104300 2855N 08638W 4849 06042 0246 -049 //// 131021 022 050 010 01
104330 2855N 08636W 4853 06040 0246 -049 //// 141019 024 051 007 01
104400 2854N 08634W 4853 06037 0249 -046 //// 142016 018 050 007 05
104430 2853N 08632W 5077 05693 0234 -033 //// 131018 021 051 007 01
104500 2853N 08629W 5282 05377 0211 -022 //// 109018 021 051 011 01
104530 2852N 08627W 5491 05065 0189 -015 //// 108022 024 051 010 01
104600 2852N 08625W 5676 04790 //// -019 //// 090028 032 052 014 01
104630 2851N 08623W 5855 04543 //// -007 //// 100026 033 051 015 01
104700 2851N 08621W 6066 04256 //// +020 //// 120019 023 055 017 01
104730 2850N 08619W 6188 04088 //// +025 //// 125016 023 054 017 05
104800 2848N 08618W 6446 03766 //// +054 //// 094007 011 055 013 01
104830 2846N 08618W 6632 03526 0005 +070 +070 073008 010 054 014 01
104900 2844N 08618W 6805 03309 //// +073 //// 064013 016 049 010 01
104930 2842N 08618W 6983 03095 //// +082 //// 063022 024 048 010 01

[cycloneye]

This morning's mission is underway and plane is already at operational altitud.

[KWT]

The GFS is also going for a slightly closer track to the coast, though this time it takes the shorter trip to the east towards Florida.

I think the 12z runs are going to be very important...

[KWT]

Also I wonder just how much rain some parts of S.Panhandle will have over the next few days, looks like regardless of track there could be some very large totals.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241057
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 08 20120624
105000 2840N 08618W 7173 02871 //// +087 //// 065020 024 045 016 05
105030 2838N 08618W 7310 02701 //// +112 //// 102016 019 028 006 05
105100 2837N 08616W 7475 02515 //// +131 //// 134018 023 /// /// 05
105130 2838N 08614W 7630 02344 //// +137 //// 136024 024 021 004 01
105200 2838N 08612W 7805 02153 //// +143 //// 130022 023 021 001 01
105230 2839N 08610W 7970 01976 //// +148 //// 124021 022 020 001 01
105300 2840N 08608W 8148 01791 //// +155 //// 123022 023 020 001 01
105330 2840N 08606W 8346 01590 //// +163 //// 119022 023 019 001 01
105400 2841N 08604W 8437 01484 //// +164 //// 119020 022 029 006 01
105430 2841N 08603W 8422 01494 //// +147 //// 122018 019 046 016 01
105500 2842N 08601W 8423 01490 //// +145 //// 129031 039 056 019 01
105530 2842N 08559W 8427 01479 //// +147 //// 129036 037 058 031 01
105600 2843N 08558W 8418 01487 //// +146 //// 123032 037 058 029 01
105630 2844N 08556W 8429 01478 //// +145 //// 126032 033 053 022 01
105700 2844N 08555W 8431 01474 //// +145 //// 124031 032 048 013 01
105730 2844N 08553W 8422 01485 //// +149 //// 124035 039 048 014 01
105800 2844N 08551W 8432 01474 //// +149 //// 128038 040 045 011 01
105830 2843N 08550W 8439 01470 //// +150 //// 117036 044 045 010 01
105900 2843N 08549W 8435 01477 //// +158 //// 119032 034 038 008 05
105930 2841N 08549W 8424 01495 //// +151 //// 115034 035 041 011 01
$$

[KWT]

Lets see what this next recon mission shows us...

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like some temporary weakening is about to ensue over the next couple of hours. That hot tower we saw earlier likely collapsed as well as the other plume of convection and sent out twin outflow boundaries. BTW, very off topic, but does Debby look like a bug or bee now with its head to the north and butt to the south?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 241107
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 09 20120624
110000 2841N 08549W 8424 01495 //// +155 //// 119030 032 038 011 01
110030 2839N 08552W 8428 01491 //// +148 //// 122029 032 037 013 01
110100 2838N 08554W 8435 01484 //// +150 //// 154021 028 038 011 01
110130 2837N 08555W 8428 01487 //// +155 //// 158016 020 029 006 01
110200 2836N 08556W 8430 01484 //// +169 //// 158017 017 014 003 01
110230 2835N 08558W 8429 01484 //// +167 //// 150016 017 009 002 01
110300 2833N 08559W 8430 01491 //// +165 //// 144013 014 010 001 01
110330 2832N 08600W 8429 01477 //// +165 //// 139014 015 007 001 01
110400 2831N 08602W 8432 01472 //// +169 //// 140015 015 002 001 01
110430 2830N 08603W 8432 01461 //// +171 //// 141016 016 005 003 05
110500 2829N 08604W 8432 01457 //// +170 //// 135016 017 004 003 05
110530 2828N 08606W 8429 01456 //// +173 //// 128016 016 003 002 01
110600 2826N 08607W 8430 01456 //// +175 //// 133016 017 003 002 01
110630 2825N 08608W 8429 01450 //// +177 //// 134014 015 004 001 01
110700 2824N 08610W 8429 01456 //// +177 //// 129015 017 013 004 01
110730 2823N 08611W 8430 01467 //// +177 //// 128017 017 019 006 01
110800 2822N 08612W 8429 01472 //// +166 //// 117013 017 023 005 01
110830 2821N 08614W 8433 01467 //// +166 //// 135011 012 020 005 01
110900 2820N 08615W 8429 01468 //// +178 //// 136010 011 010 001 01
110930 2818N 08616W 8429 01468 //// +175 //// 133010 011 009 001 01

[Javlin]

Well that ULL off of TX is hanging tough and even looks to exopanded some in size and shape forcing the only movement available N!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The close proxiemty of the ULL will keep Debby in check for the time being.The only way I see TX in this is if the ULL moves S enough and Debby gets slingshot into TX like Claudette.But,right now with all the models looking at NO to Big Bend looks like alittle rain and wind from a TS.

Yes it does John

[Janie2006]

KMOB still trying to take into account the model shift as they have yet to release this morning's HWO and AFD. However, rain chances have increased significantly, going from chance POPs today to categorical for early next week.

Odd morning along the Alabama coast with a light to moderate NE breeze and ominous clouds not too far off.