ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Air Force Met]

Its not the trough being stronger, its simply the whole thing has kept on shifting towards the convection which in turn continues to get sheared off to the east/north. Its like a game of chase!

Or like that game in PE when you are tied to a partner. Except in this case the partner is bigger than you and you go where he goes.

Convection fires...low moves to convection...convection gets sheared off...low is exposed and stalls. Repeat. Before you know it...you're in the Northern Gulf at almost 28N...which is the forecast point for TOMORROW.

[stormywaves]

Thanks for the advice and info. I will go ahead and get my prep items instead of waiting!

[Dave]

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what do you think in terms of strength, providing it stays over water for the next 48hrs how strong can it get?

Shear is relaxing...and convection starting to bubble on western side. I think a hurricane is a better than 50/50 thing. Upper air AC looking more and more like it wants to ridge over Debby. Looks like small upper low near center is dropping S. This should give enough of a boost for a run at hurricane strength. If pressure can come down to 994 give the upper levels it HAS...should be no problem.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241227
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 17 20120624
122000 2636N 08600W 8427 01518 //// +179 //// 241043 044 037 003 01
122030 2636N 08557W 8430 01517 //// +171 //// 237044 045 038 003 05
122100 2637N 08555W 8433 01514 //// +174 //// 236046 050 039 004 01
122130 2637N 08553W 8435 01511 //// +185 //// 238053 054 037 003 01
122200 2636N 08551W 8432 01516 //// +184 //// 235053 054 036 004 01
122230 2636N 08549W 8430 01517 //// +184 //// 237054 055 036 003 01
122300 2636N 08547W 8426 01520 //// +180 //// 238055 055 036 001 01
122330 2636N 08544W 8427 01520 //// +178 //// 236055 055 036 003 01
122400 2635N 08542W 8430 01516 //// +177 //// 234056 057 032 003 01
122430 2636N 08540W 8433 01514 //// +175 //// 235055 056 032 003 01
122500 2636N 08538W 8428 01518 //// +176 //// 235057 057 035 003 01
122530 2636N 08535W 8433 01514 //// +177 //// 234056 057 035 002 01
122600 2636N 08533W 8430 01517 //// +176 //// 235056 056 035 001 01
122630 2636N 08531W 8430 01519 //// +176 //// 235056 056 035 002 01
122700 2636N 08529W 8426 01526 //// +178 //// 234056 056 037 001 01
122730 2636N 08526W 8428 01524 //// +177 //// 233054 055 036 000 01
122800 2636N 08524W 8425 01526 //// +182 //// 234055 055 032 001 01
122830 2636N 08522W 8429 01524 //// +185 //// 233054 055 031 004 01
122900 2636N 08520W 8433 01518 //// +182 //// 233055 056 033 002 01
122930 2636N 08517W 8434 01517 //// +180 //// 233056 056 034 002 01
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

Bald Point east of Aplachicola has winds above 40 mph.

[ronjon]

AFM, what do you think in terms of strength, providing it stays over water for the next 48hrs how strong can it get?

Shear is relaxing...and convection starting to bubble on western side. I think a hurricane is a better than 50/50 thing. Upper air AC looking more and more like it wants to ridge over Debby. Looks like small upper low near center is dropping S. This should give enough of a boost for a run at hurricane strength. If pressure can come down to 994 give the upper levels it HAS...should be no problem.

Rut-Roh, I live 40 miles north of Tampa on the GOM. I don't want to here that.

[gatorcane]

I would say a decent right shift of the nhc track for the next advisory. The west coast of Florida is in the dirty side and if this ends up following the gfs solution....some very rough weather in store for the entire west coast of Florida for the next couple of days. The feeder bands are starting to roll into the Tampa area and stronger ones are offsore

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone beginning to form - hot towers always do the trick

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[linkerweather]

Pretty strong rotational signatures on some cells in Gulf WNW of Ft. Myers neading NNE at about 40 mph

[cycloneye]

Anti-cyclone beginning to form - hot towers always do the trick

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

That ULL that was yesterday in the NW GOM is moving away right?

[Dave]

[jlauderdal]

I would say a decent right shift of the nhc track for the next advisory. The west coast of Florida is in the dirty side and if this ends up following the gfs solution....some very rough weather in store for the entire west coast of Florida for the next couple of days. The feeder bands are starting to roll into the Tampa area and stronger ones are offsore

yep and it prolongs what has already been a wet few days by at least two more days

one hour rainfall total



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tolakram]

..TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA GULF COAST...


edit: Looks like 40 minutes ago, apologies if this has been posted earlier.

000
WTNT84 KNHC 241200
TCVAT4

DEBBY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.TROPICAL STORM DEBBY

ALZ061-062-063-064-FLZ001-002-003-004-005-006-108-112-114-115-
241500-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1004.120624T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W
OCHLOCKONEE-RIVER-FL 29.96N 84.40W

$$

LAZ056-059-065-066-067-068-069-070-241500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W
MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W

$$

ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...

[KWT]

I would say a decent right shift of the nhc track for the next advisory. The west coast of Florida is in the dirty side and if this ends up following the gfs solution....some very rough weather in store for the entire west coast of Florida for the next couple of days. The feeder bands are starting to roll into the Tampa area and stronger ones are offsore

I'm not sure I believe the GFS solution, looking at the precip charts the GFS shears the whole lot way to the NE again in 12hrs time. I suspect now we'll just see a slow drift into the W.Panhandle. ECM will have busted big time though this time...

ps, impressive one hour rainfall totals there!

[rockyman]

06z GFDL has Debby meandering slowly northward until Wednesday, then it gets shunted off to the NE (and possibly ripped apart)...with landfall east of Panama City Beach:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Dave, I got graphics for a bit.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241237
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 18 20120624
123000 2636N 08515W 8428 01523 //// +180 //// 233056 057 036 002 01
123030 2636N 08513W 8432 01520 //// +178 //// 230058 058 038 002 01
123100 2637N 08511W 8428 01526 //// +170 //// 229057 058 038 002 01
123130 2637N 08509W 8429 01526 //// +171 //// 228055 057 038 003 01
123200 2637N 08506W 8326 01626 //// +173 //// 230054 055 036 002 01
123230 2637N 08504W 8153 01803 //// +146 //// 232054 055 035 006 05
123300 2639N 08503W 8111 01850 //// +128 //// 226052 054 /// /// 05
123330 2640N 08504W 8124 01838 //// +144 //// 229050 052 037 003 01
123400 2641N 08505W 8114 01847 //// +160 //// 230053 053 036 002 01
123430 2642N 08507W 8122 01837 //// +160 //// 231054 054 037 001 01
123500 2643N 08508W 8119 01842 //// +161 //// 231054 054 037 001 01
123530 2644N 08509W 8121 01839 //// +161 //// 234054 055 033 001 01
123600 2645N 08510W 8113 01844 //// +169 //// 232053 054 030 001 01
123630 2646N 08512W 8125 01836 //// +168 //// 232053 054 030 001 01
123700 2647N 08513W 8117 01842 //// +169 //// 233054 055 028 002 01
123730 2649N 08514W 8117 01837 //// +169 //// 232052 053 028 002 01
123800 2650N 08515W 8123 01831 //// +166 //// 234053 054 026 002 01
123830 2651N 08517W 8118 01836 //// +164 //// 233053 053 030 003 01
123900 2652N 08518W 8115 01837 //// +166 //// 231053 054 032 002 01
123930 2653N 08519W 8118 01833 //// +164 //// 234054 054 032 003 01
$$
;


I'll pickup one more set of hdobs then I need someone to take over for awhile, have to leave for a couple hours. Thanks!

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks guys for staying on this, much appreciative!

[ronjon]

I am more concerned of a prolonged battering of heavy storm tides along the FL west coast (ala Elena) which will cause much damage and perhaps evacuations - If this becomes a hurricane and If it stalls and then slowly drifts to the E-NE like the GFS forecast.