ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Annie Oakley]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241326
XXAA 74138 99280 70863 08186 99994 26813 15009 00556 ///// /////
92632 22604 16506 85369 20827 14004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81306
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 2801N08628W 1309 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16
006 993812 WL150 15008 084 REL 2801N08628W 130658 SPG 2801N08628W
130848 =
XXBB 74138 99280 70863 08186 00994 26813 11917 22203 22850 20827
33822 ///// 44812 19056
21212 00994 15009 11931 16505 22889 17010 33850 14004 44812 22502
31313 09608 81306
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 10
62626 EYE SPL 2801N08628W 1309 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 16
006 993812 WL150 15008 084 REL 2801N08628W 130658 SPG 2801N08628W
130848 =
;

[artist]

latest VDM
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 12:40:00Z

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 241331
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 23 20120624
132430 2758N 08509W 8117 01815 //// +164 //// 203047 047 027 002 01
132500 2757N 08507W 8119 01813 //// +166 //// 205046 047 026 003 01
132530 2757N 08505W 8122 01813 //// +164 //// 206045 046 026 003 01
132600 2757N 08503W 8117 01818 //// +159 //// 208043 044 028 003 05
132630 2757N 08501W 8117 01818 //// +153 //// 205044 045 030 002 01
132700 2757N 08459W 8119 01818 //// +153 //// 206044 044 030 002 01
132730 2757N 08457W 8118 01818 //// +150 //// 207044 045 025 004 01
132800 2757N 08455W 8119 01820 //// +150 //// 207045 046 024 001 01
132830 2756N 08453W 8120 01820 //// +150 //// 207045 046 022 003 01
132900 2756N 08451W 8103 01837 //// +147 //// 209042 044 029 006 01
132930 2756N 08449W 8128 01813 //// +139 //// 206047 049 027 008 05
133000 2758N 08448W 8123 01823 //// +142 //// 207046 047 /// /// 05
133030 2800N 08448W 8123 01819 //// +147 //// 204042 043 032 006 05
133100 2802N 08449W 8125 01821 //// +149 //// 203043 045 033 003 01
133130 2803N 08449W 8117 01829 //// +160 //// 201047 048 031 004 01
133200 2805N 08449W 8119 01830 //// +162 //// 197046 047 031 003 01
133230 2808N 08450W 8122 01827 //// +156 //// 195045 047 032 004 01
133300 2809N 08450W 8116 01833 //// +154 //// 196041 042 031 003 01
133330 2811N 08450W 8122 01825 //// +152 //// 190045 048 031 005 01
133400 2813N 08450W 8125 01827 //// +156 //// 197043 045 030 003 01
$$
;

[linkerweather]

Seems rather odd there is no Tornado Watch for Florida.. We had multiple warnings yesterday with damage and injury. This morning already had a Warning with plenty of cells firing up and yet no watch.. Rotation was noted earlier in cells off shore.

I am surprised looking what is approaching Tampa Bay right now...I would think they are going to issue some statements for Pinellas County. The band continues to intensify and is rapidly approaching the Pinellas County beaches.

Very heavy rain and wind yes, but that area doesn't appear to be rotating any longer. Although East of Ft. Myers some cells look suspect moving North

[Aquawind]

Seems rather odd there is no Tornado Watch for Florida.. We had multiple warnings yesterday with damage and injury. This morning already had a Warning with plenty of cells firing up and yet no watch.. Rotation was noted earlier in cells off shore.

I am surprised but looking what is approaching Tampa Bay right now...I would think they are going to issue some statements for Pinellas County.

Absolutely.. Down here we are along ways from the system with no watches or warnings and yet Tornado warnings are poping regularly..some lasted a long time as well.. These cells arent blasting at 40 mph to make it moot like in a core of a system.. Frankly there is no heads up for locals down here..

[RL3AO]

Go ahead and take over Annie

[jinftl]

From Dr. Jeff Masters this morning:

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%.

Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.

[Aquawind]

Seems rather odd there is no Tornado Watch for Florida.. We had multiple warnings yesterday with damage and injury. This morning already had a Warning with plenty of cells firing up and yet no watch.. Rotation was noted earlier in cells off shore.

I am surprised looking what is approaching Tampa Bay right now...I would think they are going to issue some statements for Pinellas County. The band continues to intensify and is rapidly approaching the Pinellas County beaches.

Very heavy rain and wind yes, but that area doesn't appear to be rotating any longer. Although East of Ft. Myers some cells look suspect moving North

There was a warning in lee county as you posted that. Correction shortly after..unless my timing is off..lol

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 900 AM EDT * AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF BABCOCK WEBB WMA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF FORT MYERS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BABCOCK WEBB WMA. BABCOCK RANCH.

[HouTXmetro]

ULL starting to book it SW and structure wise Debby beggining to respond. You can see clouds beginning to build around the LLC. Although shear is still their it's starting to somewhat relax. Thank God for the ULL or we would have been looking at a more powerful storm heading west.

ULL
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

Vis
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Annie Oakley]

Ok-thanks RL3AO

[cycloneye]

Debby's place in history by Dr Jeff Masters:

Debby's place in history
Remarkably, Debby's formation on June 23 comes a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5. An early start to the Atlantic hurricane season has been increasingly common in recent years. In 2008, I blogged about the research of Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, who published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, titled "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". Three out of four of this year's early quartet of storms--Alberto, Beryl, and Debby--formed in ocean areas that were more than 1°F above average, which is an unusually high amount of warmth. We should expect to see more early-season Atlantic tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, since cool ocean temperatures are a key impediment to formation of such storms. However, this assumes that factors such as wind shear and atmospheric stability won't grow more hostile for tropical cyclone formation during the early part of hurricane season, and this is uncertain. If we do end up seeing a substantial increase in early-season tropical storms as a consequence of global warming, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Early-season tropical storms are often more boon than bane, bringing much-needed drought-busting rains, like Tropical Storm Beryl did for North Florida last month. With drought frequency and intensity predicted to increase for much of the Gulf Coastal states in coming decades, an increase in rainfall from early-season tropical storms may do more good than the damages inflicted by the high winds and flooding these storms may bring. There is typically a lot of wind shear around in May, June, and July, making it difficult for early season storms to reach major hurricane status. According to Wunderground's list of major early-season hurricanes, since record keeping began in 1851, there has been only one major hurricane in May, two in June, and nine in July. Three of these occurred in the past ten years, so there has not as yet been an observable large increase in early-season major hurricanes due to global warming.

[Meteorcane]

ULL starting to book it SW and structure wise Debby beggining to respond. You can see clouds beginning to build around the LLC. Although shear is still their it's starting to somewhat relax. Thank God for the ULL or we would have been looking at a more powerful storm heading west.

ULL
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

Vis
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Yeah does appear to finally be some banding around/ just to the north of the COC, hopefully the fact that there will be some land interaction on its northern/eastern periphery during its trek across the Gulf (whichever way it ultimately chooses) that could possibly keep it high end t.s/low end Cat.1. Although unlike say Don last year dry air entrainment probably won't be as big an issue. Although upwelling could be.


Disclaimer: Listen to the NWS/NHC for official decisions, not me.

[jinftl]

Back to spaghetti plots - officials in New Orleans area must be watching closely

[GCANE]

CUs building on the west side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[gatorcane]

Look at the trough digging now across the Great Lakes, diving quickly southeast. Can't see how Debbie won't get picked up and sent NE or at least north. I see a weakness developing over the Eastern half of the United Sates. The ridge doesn't look like it will be strong enough to spread far enough to the Southeast. It seems the Texas solution is looking less and less likely:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[GCANE]

Small hot-towers firing again in the SE band

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... xico.0.jpg

[SoupBone]

From Dr. Jeff Masters this morning:

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%.

Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.

The only bright spot. Some parts of Florida can really use the rain.

[linkerweather]

Small hot-towers firing again in the SE band

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... xico.0.jpg

First lightning strikes offshore Tampa Bay with that spot. Common with higher tops. Buoys near that with gusts to 45 knots

[robbielyn]

I see a possible eye like feature south of appalach. Could it be the eye starting to form? On visible sat.

[KWT]

Look at the trough digging now across the Great Lakes, diving quickly southeast. Can't see how Debbie won't get picked up and sent NE or at least north. I see a weakness developing now over the Eastern half of the United Sates. The ridge doesn't look like it will be strong enough to spread far enough to the Southeast. It seems the Texas solution is looking less and less likely:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Yeah that trough is digging well, I think given the relocations that have happened that will probably put it just close enough to that diving trough to pick Debby up.

Models still totally split on whether it takes the western or eastern set-up, though hopefully the 12z suite will clear things up.