ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241348
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 24 20120624
133000 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133030 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133100 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133130 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133200 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133230 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133300 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133330 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133400 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133430 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133500 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133530 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133600 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133630 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133700 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133730 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133800 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133830 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133900 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
133930 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
$$
;

[GCANE]

Nice loop showing the buildup of the west side

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

[jlauderdal]

From Dr. Jeff Masters this morning:

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%.

Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.

The only bright spot. Some parts of Florida can really use the rain.

We are in good shape in sofla




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[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241349
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 25 20120624
134000 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134030 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134100 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134130 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134200 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134230 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134300 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134330 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134400 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134430 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134500 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134530 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134600 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134630 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134700 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134730 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134800 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +178 //// 196027 029 020 003 01
134830 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +177 //// 193027 029 020 003 01
134900 2801N 08602W 8118 02124 //// +176 //// 191027 029 020 003 01
134930 2914N 08459W 8118 01842 //// +156 //// 139034 035 018 003 05
$$

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

The GFDL/GFS/CMC are now in remarkable agreement on a Florida Panhandle/big bend hit looking at the last runs. The 12Z runs will be telling.

NOGAPS sends it west then WSW towards the Lower Texas coast. I know it won't be going there then as it's the NOGAPS which has not had a good track record the past several years

[tolakram]

I can post the occasional graphic. If someone else wants to post graphics feel free.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241357
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 26 20120624
135000 2916N 08459W 8117 01841 //// +152 //// 139036 037 /// /// 05
135030 2917N 08500W 8114 01852 //// +150 //// 140034 035 /// /// 05
135100 2916N 08502W 8124 01835 //// +152 //// 138033 033 /// /// 05
135130 2915N 08503W 8117 01839 //// +151 //// 134033 033 /// /// 05
135200 2914N 08504W 8119 01838 //// +154 //// 134033 034 /// /// 05
135230 2913N 08506W 8121 01834 //// +152 //// 131033 034 /// /// 05
135300 2912N 08507W 8157 01794 //// +150 //// 132033 034 /// /// 05
135330 2911N 08508W 8166 01782 //// +150 //// 132034 035 /// /// 05
135400 2909N 08510W 8123 01825 //// +153 //// 129031 034 /// /// 05
135430 2908N 08511W 8120 01827 //// +150 //// 129027 030 030 003 01
135500 2907N 08513W 8121 01830 //// +141 //// 132031 034 032 006 01
135530 2906N 08514W 8118 01829 //// +142 //// 134033 034 032 006 01
135600 2905N 08515W 8118 01829 //// +141 //// 135032 033 031 005 01
135630 2904N 08517W 8118 01826 //// +138 //// 137033 034 030 006 01
135700 2903N 08518W 8120 01824 //// +135 //// 132034 038 033 010 01
135730 2901N 08519W 8116 01828 //// +130 //// 151029 031 033 009 01
135800 2900N 08520W 8116 01825 //// +133 //// 157032 033 034 011 01
135830 2859N 08522W 8118 01823 //// +131 //// 152034 036 040 016 01
135900 2858N 08523W 8119 01819 //// +127 //// 154033 034 041 017 01
135930 2857N 08524W 8120 01818 //// +131 //// 158036 038 044 021 01
$$

[Air Force Met]

I see a possible eye like feature south of appalach. Could it be the eye starting to form? On visible sat.

No. Debby is still a sheared, disorganized mess. No eye.

And the center continues to get tugged to the NE by the convection. Now at 28N, 86.3W. Almost 80 miles NE of where it was at 09Z.

[robbielyn]

I see a possible eye like feature south of appalach. Could it be the eye starting to form? On visible sat.

No. Debby is still a sheared, disorganized mess. No eye.

My bad I mean a new center not eye. Nevermind I thought I saw a center but Theres a few holes near it so I thought I saw circulation there. I still see where the main center is.

[KWT]

I'm seeing a slight NE motion at the moment, its not too much and it may jsut by the convection 'tugging' at the broader circulation as it moves quicker to the NE.

[jinftl]

Tyndall AFB buoy not far south of Apalachicola reporting sustained winds of 56 mph (49 kts) with a gust to 67 mph (59 kts)

[ocala]

From Dr. Jeff Masters this morning:

Forecast for Debby
Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%.

Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.

The only bright spot. Some parts of Florida can really use the rain.

Especially the Cedar Key area. Just this week residents were told not to drink the water because of saltwater intrusion into the wells.
So far CK has received about 2 inches. Hopefully they get much more to help with the problem.

[Noah]

Sarasota Florida has been getting heavy rain for 3 days now.. Its been a wonderful thing for our drought. The lakes behind me were drying behind my house and I was worried about the fish and turtles.. The surf is coming over the sea walls in Sarasota bay.. Love this weather as long as things stay safe. But the peace river Im sure has topped, that will be issues.

[HouTXmetro]

The GFDL/GFS/CMC are now in remarkable agreement on a Florida Panhandle/big bend hit looking at the last runs. The 12Z runs will be telling.

NOGAPS sends it west then WSW towards the Lower Texas coast. I know it won't be going there then as it's the NOGAPS which has not had a good track record the past several years

What was the prior NOGAPS run?

[Nimbus]

I was expecting some of the models to show a WSW motion as Debbie moved under the SE edge of the ridge. That would throw all the current landfall potentials out the window if a surreal scenario like that verified.

Nola evac system is kind of complex requires 48 hour lead time and they will no doubt see at least TS winds and flooding from the rainbands.

I've got a bad feeling about Debbie, but as long as she doesn't start to sink WSW into a more favorable environment I guess it doesn't have any rational foundation.

[jinftl]

Wouldn't be surprised to see futher expansion of watches/warnings to include metro New Orleans and MS coast at update in an hour.

[Aquawind]

quote]

Very heavy rain and wind yes, but that area doesn't appear to be rotating any longer. Although East of Ft. Myers some cells look suspect moving North[/quote]


There was a warning in lee county as you posted that. Correction shortly after..unless my timing is off..lol

TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 830 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 900 AM EDT * AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF BABCOCK WEBB WMA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF FORT MYERS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BABCOCK WEBB WMA. BABCOCK RANCH.[/quote]


Sorry but again.. Multiple warnings here yesterday with damage and injury.. Already a warning today. Radar has cells developing and moving onshore. We have a organizing hence intensifying system that is basicaly stationary.. even if the watch is north of us it seems like more Warnings will be issued..With no other weather or watches related to the storm whatsoever so no real heads up for the public. What is the problem?

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241407
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 27 20120624
140000 2856N 08525W 8100 01836 //// +129 //// 164035 036 040 018 01
140030 2855N 08527W 8128 01806 //// +135 //// 177033 036 037 010 01
140100 2854N 08528W 8118 01821 //// +145 //// 170025 029 025 008 01
140130 2853N 08529W 8122 01814 //// +156 //// 164025 026 019 002 01
140200 2852N 08530W 8119 01818 //// +156 //// 166024 025 019 005 01
140230 2851N 08532W 8118 01821 //// +152 //// 163023 024 019 004 01
140300 2849N 08533W 8117 01818 //// +160 //// 165023 024 017 003 01
140330 2848N 08534W 8119 01814 //// +160 //// 163023 023 010 004 01
140400 2847N 08535W 8119 01815 //// +163 //// 161025 025 011 002 01
140430 2846N 08537W 8118 01814 //// +163 //// 152024 025 020 007 01
140500 2845N 08538W 8111 01823 //// +142 //// 149021 024 032 011 01
140530 2844N 08539W 8117 01812 //// +163 //// 156022 023 020 004 01
140600 2843N 08541W 8122 01806 //// +170 //// 154023 023 015 002 01
140630 2842N 08542W 8115 01812 //// +169 //// 154022 023 016 002 01
140700 2841N 08543W 8117 01808 //// +165 //// 155022 023 015 003 01
140730 2839N 08545W 8118 01806 //// +162 //// 149023 024 016 003 01
140800 2838N 08546W 8120 01802 //// +162 //// 146023 023 016 003 01
140830 2837N 08547W 8118 01803 //// +163 //// 139020 023 009 002 01
140900 2836N 08548W 8122 01798 //// +164 //// 141020 020 010 002 01
140930 2835N 08550W 8115 01804 //// +165 //// 134020 021 004 001 05
$$

[Javlin]

ULL is about the same it was at 5am this morning not booking it by no means (same terminology used yesterday) look to the ATL to see booking.The ULL is getting squashed right now but still a blocker W it may just dissenigrate later this evening?The new trof over the Great Lakes may not cut deep enough to have much influence N well over 600miles seperate the two wait wait....

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12