Texas Summer 2012

[Portastorm]

Weatherdude is going to be excited about this EWX forecast discussion.


(forecast discussion deleted after seeing weatherdude's post!)

[weatherdude1108]

Out of curiosity, I checked the San Angelo office since they are further north than us. If they have a shot of getting moisture, then Austin certainly does. Also, the CPC 14-day outlook changed just from yesterday.

San Angelo Discussion 3:15 PM 6/22/12
ONE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING THE HEAT WAVE...MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND...AND MOVING WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK(6/29). IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE TURN
TOWARD TEXAS...AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN JUNE FAVOR A
DUE NORTH TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA. BUT THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC WANTS TO BRING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ALSO...HPC DAY 3-7 SURFACE MAPS
AND CPC 6-10 DAY FORECASTS ARE AGREEING WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK.THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA. IF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES IT TO TEXAS...SOME OF THE
MOISTURE/HEAVY RAINFALL MAY MAKE IT TO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 6/30 TO 7/1. AGAIN...THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE POSSIBLE TRACK(ANYWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST IS STILL OPEN FOR
POSSIBLE LANDFALL). THE NHC IS GIVING THIS SYSTEM(CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA) A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Austin Discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY VERY
WET LATE NEXT WEEK.

ALL MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND TROPICAL STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEAST INTO FLORIDA WHILE
THE NON-GFS GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST INTO TEXAS. NHC
SIDES WITH THE NON-GFS GLOBAL MODELS TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER SPEED. IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM INCREASE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE MID WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
SHOULD A FASTER SPEED DEVELOP...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
EARLIER NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND SPEED...HAVE
GONE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MUGGIER WITH LOWER DAYTIME AND HIGHER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.


CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2012 Prognostic Discussion issued 6/22/12

“THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST, TEXAS, AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE MANY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS PREDICT A WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS, ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TILT THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS
REGION.”
CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2012 Prognostic Discussion issued 6/22/12

“NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL LEADING INTO THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT EMERGES FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2 ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.”

[weatherdude1108]

Weatherdude is going to be excited about this EWX forecast discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND THEN POSSIBLY VERY
WET LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AIRMASS DRIES WITH PWS LESS THAN 1.3
INCHES. PWS LOCALLY UP TO 1.7 INCHES DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CAP THE AIRMASS AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
BECOME WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY. DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS...
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S...
EXCEPT SOME UPPER 60S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACTUALLY "COOLER" THAN AIR TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS.

ALL MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND TROPICAL STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEAST INTO FLORIDA WHILE
THE NON-GFS GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST INTO TEXAS. NHC
SIDES WITH THE NON-GFS GLOBAL MODELS TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER SPEED. IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM INCREASE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND LEAD TO
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE MID WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
SHOULD A FASTER SPEED DEVELOP...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
EARLIER NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND SPEED...HAVE
GONE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. INCREASED DEWPOINTS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MUGGIER WITH LOWER DAYTIME AND HIGHER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.

Oh man, you beat me to the punch Portastorm!
I'm loving it! Amazing how one day can make a difference!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Quick move your State up here and plop it on top of my province! Please!

[horselattitudesfarm]

Brownsville early morning discussion.....Giant Elephant in the Room! lol

THE GIANT ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. NHC HAS INDICATED THERE IS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY FROM ONE MODEL TO THE NEXT AND ONE RUN
TO THE NEXT WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGESTING A
PLETHORA OF FINAL LANDFALLS FROM NEAR THIS REGION ALL THE WAY TO
WESTERN FLORIDA. OTHER GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WELL BEFORE IT
MOVES TOWARDS SHORE OR LEAVES IT STALLED IN THE GULF FOR DAYS AT A
TIME. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT IS VERY EARLY IN THE PROCESS AND ABOUT
THE ONLY THING WE CAN RELIABLY SAY IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AND UPDATED FORECASTS REGARDING IT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDING THE FORECAST...HEAVY MANIPULATION OF THE WIND GRIDS AND
SEAS WAS REQUIRED WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE. FOLLOWED HPCS BASIC
GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OR A
BROAD/LARGE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSUMED WE WOULD BE IN
A GENERALLY NORTHERLY AND SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS. WITH THAT KEPT RAIN
CHANCES LOW AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY HIGH.

Its funny how they can always forcast where the Death Ridge is going to go (i.e. Texas) but can't forecast where something that is going to bring us lots of rain (i.e. tropical low) is going to go.

[Rgv20]

Dallas early morning discussion.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WILL BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS THOUGH MIDWEEK. THERE
IS A BIG DIVERGENCE IN HOW THE COMPUTER MODELS HANDLE THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/UKMET ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY TRACK IT WESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND ALLOWS A TROUGH TO PICK UP THE SYSTEM
AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST INTO FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE CANADIAN LIFTS
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAY
RESULT IN LOWERING HEIGHTS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INCREASED EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS.

Brownsville early morning discussion.

REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES TO CARRY AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL AND NESTED
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON THIS STORM ARE SPLIT INTO
TWO CAMPS. THE GFS CAMP PUSHES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SWEEPS IT EASTWARD...WHILE THE
OTHER...ECWMF/CANADIAN/NAM STALLS THE SYSTEM AND BEGINS TO PULL IT
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS BULLISH ON ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.

[Texas Snowman]

Recon showing Tropical Storm Debby has formed.

Now...does she go to Florida? Louisiana? Or Texas? And how strong does she get?

Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) has made it clear in the last hour (via his Tweets) where he thinks she is headed:

* Now that I can see the low level center, believe GFS is wrong with east move as its developing for enough west to miss ne trough.

* Gulf storm to turn west, with Wed or Thur hurricane threat to texas increasing. Northern gulf energy interest affected next 5 days.

* This could be cat 2, worst case cat 3 by landfall.AudreyJune, 57 got to cat 4, so well within limits of what weather is capable of.

* Wednesday will be one heck of summer weather day. cold ne, california. Heat northern and central plains. hurricane heading for Texas.

* @RyanMaue GFS will lose . this morning, when I saw where center was committed to west track into Texas with hurricane hit.

[Texas Snowman]

What's interesting about this to me is that Joe thought earlier in the week the storm would form but would take the NE track.

He seems pretty set on a westward track today after seeing where center is.

Does that center weaken and die out since convection is to the east of it?

[Texas Snowman]

Houston Chronicle's SciGuy blogger Eric Berger seems to be in the "Debby coming to Texas" camp this afternoon.

His latest blog post at -- http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06/lo ... aten-texas :

"The storm, which increasingly looks like it will have some effect on Texas during the middle of next week, is already affecting activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Anadarko Petroleum Corp said today it was shutting in production at four oil and natural gas platforms in the eastern Gulf. Other companies are taking similar action as well. Floodgates in some areas of southeastern Louisiana are already being closed.

The latest forecast models, which have come out between noon and 2 p.m. today, suggest the storm may approach Texas as a hurricane during the middle of the coming week. Please bear in mind that forecast track models for systems that have not yet developed into full-fledged tropical storms are not wholly reliable.

Nevertheless Texas appears to be in play. Let’s take a look at some of the new model runs:
-----
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What’s important to note in this image above is that some of the models that brought the storm to Florida have moved to Texas. Of the most important hurricane models only the GFS and GFDL models, which belong to the same “family” of models, bring the storm toward Florida. These are now distinctly outliers.

As we’ve been discussing for awhile now, the most likely scenario for this storm is to move north for the next day or two near the southern coast of Louisiana, before bumping into a ridge of high pressure and being pushed westward.

An exception to this is the Canadian model, which brings a substantial hurricane into Louisiana and Mississippi in about five days, and while this is possible most forecasters now favor a more distinct westward turn toward Texas in a couple of days.

That’s in part because the influential European model continues to bring the storm west, with the latest run bringing a hurricane to Matagorda Bay in five days. It’s not time to panic along the Texas coast, to be sure, but this is a sign that this system is to be taken seriously.

-----
-----

What’s going to happen now is that the storm should form within the next 12 to 24 hours, and when that happens it should have a fairly well defined center of circulation. Once that’s in place, track models should begin to get a better handle on the system. I expect that by this time tomorrow we’ll have a more precise track forecast.

How strong is it going to get? As for intensity, the waters in the Gulf are warm, but as I noted on Friday, they’re not explosively warm.

So while this could very well become a hurricane, odds do not favor its intensification into a major hurricane. But it’s the Gulf. It’s summer. And it’s happened before."

[Texas Snowman]

TS Debby is named. Has winds of 50 mph and pressure of 1001 mb at 4 p.m. CDT.

For now, NHC going with Euro and bringing Debby west towards Texas:

[Ntxw]

DFW once again fell short of the forecasted high today. Still awaiting the 100 degree day. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer and may come even closer. Monday though looks to the best shot. Soil moisture and green fauna has proven to be stubborn and is not enhancing the ridge in the region. If we can live through early week late week MAY get some help from Debby in terms of diurnal thunderstorms depending on her track.

PNA is spiking and will be positive in a few days while NAO remains negative. I feel good about our chances for rain and warm (still no extreme heat) as summer continues.

[weatherdude1108]

Deleted previous post

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
831 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
T.S. DEBBY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARDS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. A SINKING AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF DEBBY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN PROLONGED EXCESSIVE
POWER CONSUMPTION. IF THE 12Z ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY...A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT WOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
THE 18Z GFS IS STILL THE OUTLIER MOVING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. THERE
ARE STILL MANY MODEL RUNS TO GO.

[horselattitudesfarm]

This is not looking good, except for the cooler part :

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST TRACK FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH AND IS CURRENTLY
DIRECTED MORE TOWARD THE HOUSTON/BEAUMONT AREA. THIS WILL MEAN LESS
OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS S TX...ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPS
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EXTENDED...THEREFORE DID NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS BUT DID
LOWER THEM TO SLIGHT CHC THROUGH MID WEEK. ALSO KEPT A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH MID WEEK. REGARDLESS OF T.S.
DEBBY`S TRACK...AM STILL EXPECTING AN ISSUE WITH MINOR TIDAL
OVERFLOW AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO LONG WAVE SWELLS. FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP GOING AS
MODELS BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO S TX AND PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS/MOISTURE...AM ALSO EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

[weatherdude1108]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

What happened to the high pressure that was supposed to steer it towards Texas??

[Portastorm]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

What happened to the high pressure that was supposed to steer it towards Texas??

Nothing, really ... but the center of Debby keeps reforming north and northeast closer and closer to the north-northeast Gulf Coast. The latest developments appear to favor a rightward-moving forecast track. For those of us wanting rain, right deviations of track -- bad, left devations-good.

[weatherdude1108]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

What happened to the high pressure that was supposed to steer it towards Texas??

Central Texas rather???

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

What happened to the high pressure that was supposed to steer it towards Texas??

Central Texas rather???

That is the same thing I was wondering - I thought the dreadful high pressure would work in our favor for once in my life- I went for a run today and thought I was going to die - well to be honest it was a skip and walk mostly- measly 3 miles -

[horselattitudesfarm]

The Portastorm Weather Center is issuing a Sprinkler Watch for the Austin metropolitan area. The watch is in effect for the next week. That means a sprinkler may be needed in the watch time frame. Stay tuned for more details.

What happened to the high pressure that was supposed to steer it towards Texas??

Nothing, really ... but the center of Debby keeps reforming north and northeast closer and closer to the north-northeast Gulf Coast. The latest developments appear to favor a rightward-moving forecast track. For those of us wanting rain, right deviations of track -- bad, left devations-good.

Like I said before, they are really good at forecasting when high pressure is supposed to come to Texas, but not good when forecasting low pressure coming here.