ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC note on all forecasts they release - the media (esp of a large metro area) ignores this generally. This is the average forecast error...that means half of storms have larger error 4 and 5 days out even
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20014
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Recon

0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 9
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 6:04 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Whoa, not saying they're wrong or flaming NHC, just genuinely curious what they see. This has been a pretty peculiar set of conditions, no?
0 likes
Not a meteorologist, didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Do not believe a word I say.
Do not believe a word I say.
- Annie Oakley
- Category 5
- Posts: 1103
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
- Location: Texas
000
UZNT13 KNHC 241432
XXAA 74148 99281 70862 08186 99994 26815 31503 00554 ///// /////
92634 23009 30501 85371 20215 35004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
XXBB 74148 99281 70862 08186 00994 26815 11850 20215 22823 20228
33812 /////
21212 00994 31503 11915 00000 22850 35004 33812 02504
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
;
UZNT13 KNHC 241432
XXAA 74148 99281 70862 08186 99994 26815 31503 00554 ///// /////
92634 23009 30501 85371 20215 35004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
XXBB 74148 99281 70862 08186 00994 26815 11850 20215 22823 20228
33812 /////
21212 00994 31503 11915 00000 22850 35004 33812 02504
31313 09608 81421
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2805N08620W 1423 MBL WND 31003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 34
502 993812 WL150 31004 084 REL 2805N08620W 142102 SPG 2805N08620W
142244 =
;
0 likes
- Annie Oakley
- Category 5
- Posts: 1103
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
- Location: Texas
000
URNT15 KNHC 241437
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 30 20120624
143000 2823N 08634W 8118 01799 //// +179 //// 032017 018 044 001 01
143030 2824N 08635W 8121 01798 //// +179 //// 029016 018 043 002 01
143100 2825N 08636W 8118 01804 //// +178 //// 027019 021 045 001 01
143130 2826N 08637W 8122 01799 //// +178 //// 026028 030 047 003 01
143200 2827N 08639W 8118 01804 //// +170 //// 028031 032 047 003 01
143230 2828N 08640W 8120 01803 //// +171 //// 036034 036 047 003 01
143300 2830N 08641W 8119 01803 //// +166 //// 036036 038 049 001 01
143330 2831N 08643W 8119 01803 //// +164 //// 038034 036 050 002 01
143400 2832N 08644W 8119 01806 //// +161 //// 037038 039 047 003 01
143430 2833N 08645W 8117 01808 //// +158 //// 037038 040 048 003 01
143500 2834N 08646W 8117 01809 //// +157 //// 035042 044 047 002 05
143530 2835N 08648W 8121 01808 //// +149 //// 034050 051 049 001 01
143600 2836N 08649W 8118 01814 //// +146 //// 035054 057 048 002 01
143630 2837N 08650W 8115 01818 //// +143 //// 035057 060 047 003 01
143700 2838N 08651W 8117 01815 //// +142 //// 036060 064 049 002 01
143730 2839N 08653W 8122 01813 //// +139 //// 034065 066 047 001 01
143800 2840N 08654W 8121 01814 //// +145 //// 030066 067 046 004 01
143830 2841N 08655W 8116 01823 //// +151 //// 030067 068 046 003 01
143900 2842N 08656W 8119 01823 //// +157 //// 030066 068 046 002 01
143930 2843N 08657W 8120 01819 //// +157 //// 032067 067 047 004 01
$$
URNT15 KNHC 241437
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 30 20120624
143000 2823N 08634W 8118 01799 //// +179 //// 032017 018 044 001 01
143030 2824N 08635W 8121 01798 //// +179 //// 029016 018 043 002 01
143100 2825N 08636W 8118 01804 //// +178 //// 027019 021 045 001 01
143130 2826N 08637W 8122 01799 //// +178 //// 026028 030 047 003 01
143200 2827N 08639W 8118 01804 //// +170 //// 028031 032 047 003 01
143230 2828N 08640W 8120 01803 //// +171 //// 036034 036 047 003 01
143300 2830N 08641W 8119 01803 //// +166 //// 036036 038 049 001 01
143330 2831N 08643W 8119 01803 //// +164 //// 038034 036 050 002 01
143400 2832N 08644W 8119 01806 //// +161 //// 037038 039 047 003 01
143430 2833N 08645W 8117 01808 //// +158 //// 037038 040 048 003 01
143500 2834N 08646W 8117 01809 //// +157 //// 035042 044 047 002 05
143530 2835N 08648W 8121 01808 //// +149 //// 034050 051 049 001 01
143600 2836N 08649W 8118 01814 //// +146 //// 035054 057 048 002 01
143630 2837N 08650W 8115 01818 //// +143 //// 035057 060 047 003 01
143700 2838N 08651W 8117 01815 //// +142 //// 036060 064 049 002 01
143730 2839N 08653W 8122 01813 //// +139 //// 034065 066 047 001 01
143800 2840N 08654W 8121 01814 //// +145 //// 030066 067 046 004 01
143830 2841N 08655W 8116 01823 //// +151 //// 030067 068 046 003 01
143900 2842N 08656W 8119 01823 //// +157 //// 030066 068 046 002 01
143930 2843N 08657W 8120 01819 //// +157 //// 032067 067 047 004 01
$$
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145769
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories
TORNADO WARNING
FLC049-105-241515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0010.120624T1431Z-120624T1515Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT
* AT 1031 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR ONA...OR NEAR WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAUCHULA...ONA.
FORT GREEN.
FORT MEADE.
HOMELAND.
BARTOW...MULBERRY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.
FLC049-105-241515-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0010.120624T1431Z-120624T1515Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1031 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT
* AT 1031 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR ONA...OR NEAR WAUCHULA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WAUCHULA...ONA.
FORT GREEN.
FORT MEADE.
HOMELAND.
BARTOW...MULBERRY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
this should be 10/11pm advisory A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 14:21:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°03'N 86°12'W (28.05N 86.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 150 miles (242 km) to the SSW (192°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Still 994mb
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°03'N 86°12'W (28.05N 86.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 150 miles (242 km) to the SSW (192°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Still 994mb
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL
JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM
JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT
* AT 1040 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 10
KNOTS.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL
JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM
JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT
* AT 1040 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH AT 10
KNOTS.
0 likes
- Annie Oakley
- Category 5
- Posts: 1103
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
- Location: Texas
VORTEX
000
URNT12 KNHC 241436
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/14:21:20Z
B. 28 deg 03 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 44 kt
E. 042 deg 67 nm
F. 131 deg 38 kt
G. 042 deg 75 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 13 C / 1822 m
J. 19 C / 1830 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 12:40:00Z
;
000
URNT12 KNHC 241436
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/14:21:20Z
B. 28 deg 03 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 44 kt
E. 042 deg 67 nm
F. 131 deg 38 kt
G. 042 deg 75 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 13 C / 1822 m
J. 19 C / 1830 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 12:40:00Z
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The radar loop here seems to imply the center is somewhere (good deal) south of Pensacola or Panama City Beach.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145769
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Impressive shield of heavy rain covering a large area.


0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Impressive shield of heavy rain covering a large area.
http://media.pnsdigital.com/weather/wea ... 123000.jpg
Yes. Staying on Cape San Blas here and it's rained HARD for several hours solid. Might be getting a short break soon though.
0 likes
- Annie Oakley
- Category 5
- Posts: 1103
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
- Location: Texas
000
URNT15 KNHC 241447
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 31 20120624
144000 2844N 08658W 8116 01829 //// +164 //// 031068 068 046 003 01
144030 2845N 08659W 8120 01821 //// +165 //// 032067 069 045 003 01
144100 2847N 08701W 8121 01820 //// +163 //// 031068 069 047 004 01
144130 2848N 08702W 8119 01824 //// +162 //// 032069 069 047 001 01
144200 2849N 08703W 8122 01824 //// +161 //// 032068 069 044 003 01
144230 2850N 08704W 8119 01827 //// +160 //// 031067 068 043 003 01
144300 2851N 08705W 8118 01826 //// +159 //// 033067 068 042 003 01
144330 2852N 08707W 8112 01834 //// +156 //// 033065 067 042 003 01
144400 2853N 08708W 8125 01826 //// +148 //// 033065 067 036 001 01
144430 2854N 08709W 8117 01838 //// +140 //// 035063 064 038 002 01
144500 2855N 08710W 8120 01837 //// +143 //// 037059 062 039 004 01
144530 2856N 08711W 8117 01840 //// +132 //// 039054 060 039 004 01
144600 2857N 08713W 8133 01825 //// +146 //// 044061 066 037 006 01
144630 2858N 08714W 8121 01840 //// +150 //// 045064 065 036 004 01
144700 2859N 08715W 8118 01843 //// +154 //// 044064 065 036 003 01
144730 2900N 08717W 8117 01843 //// +147 //// 045064 065 036 004 01
144800 2901N 08718W 8119 01841 //// +146 //// 046064 066 036 003 01
144830 2903N 08719W 8121 01841 //// +142 //// 049068 069 037 003 01
144900 2904N 08720W 8114 01852 //// +140 //// 049063 069 036 005 01
144930 2905N 08722W 8121 01846 //// +147 //// 050065 067 038 003 01
$$
URNT15 KNHC 241447
AF302 0204A DEBBY HDOB 31 20120624
144000 2844N 08658W 8116 01829 //// +164 //// 031068 068 046 003 01
144030 2845N 08659W 8120 01821 //// +165 //// 032067 069 045 003 01
144100 2847N 08701W 8121 01820 //// +163 //// 031068 069 047 004 01
144130 2848N 08702W 8119 01824 //// +162 //// 032069 069 047 001 01
144200 2849N 08703W 8122 01824 //// +161 //// 032068 069 044 003 01
144230 2850N 08704W 8119 01827 //// +160 //// 031067 068 043 003 01
144300 2851N 08705W 8118 01826 //// +159 //// 033067 068 042 003 01
144330 2852N 08707W 8112 01834 //// +156 //// 033065 067 042 003 01
144400 2853N 08708W 8125 01826 //// +148 //// 033065 067 036 001 01
144430 2854N 08709W 8117 01838 //// +140 //// 035063 064 038 002 01
144500 2855N 08710W 8120 01837 //// +143 //// 037059 062 039 004 01
144530 2856N 08711W 8117 01840 //// +132 //// 039054 060 039 004 01
144600 2857N 08713W 8133 01825 //// +146 //// 044061 066 037 006 01
144630 2858N 08714W 8121 01840 //// +150 //// 045064 065 036 004 01
144700 2859N 08715W 8118 01843 //// +154 //// 044064 065 036 003 01
144730 2900N 08717W 8117 01843 //// +147 //// 045064 065 036 004 01
144800 2901N 08718W 8119 01841 //// +146 //// 046064 066 036 003 01
144830 2903N 08719W 8121 01841 //// +142 //// 049068 069 037 003 01
144900 2904N 08720W 8114 01852 //// +140 //// 049063 069 036 005 01
144930 2905N 08722W 8121 01846 //// +147 //// 050065 067 038 003 01
$$
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145769
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories
WTNT24 KNHC 241455
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.5W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 86.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1500 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 86.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.5W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 86.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Wouldn't be surprised to see an early evacuation issued for Cape San Blas because they've got such extreme erosion issues. There actually used to be a fair amount of land on the other side of the stumphole/rip rap in the mid-90s, and last time I was there, the water was pretty much hitting concrete hunks.
0 likes
ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...DEBBY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD
POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
52 MPH...84 KM/H.
THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 241455
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012
...DEBBY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO ANCLOTE KEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
RIVER FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANCLOTE KEY FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD
POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
52 MPH...84 KM/H.
THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Per the Vis Loop... "structurally" Debby is really starting to look good. Classic banding beginning to take shape in all quads. She could be attempting to stack. Still virtually stationary with ever so slight NE tug.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc
0 likes
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests