ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Buck]

Pretty big track shift. Both AL and FL panhandle now in possible landfall cone.

[northjaxpro]

Debby picked up forward speed a bit Now moving NE at 6 mph.

[stormhunter7]

no bite in east track.. still going west

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[mutley]

The radar loop here seems to imply the center is somewhere (good deal) south of Pensacola or Panama City Beach.

Looking at visible, the COC seems considerably further NE than the last NHC fix, if you turn on Trop. Forecast points. This is getting very interesting for hurricane geeks.

And with convection beginning to the west.

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 241458
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 28.5N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 28.5N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 88.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 29.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 30.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241452 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/14:21:20Z
B. 28 deg 03 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 44 kt
E. 042 deg 67 nm
F. 131 deg 38 kt
G. 042 deg 75 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 13 C / 1822 m
J. 19 C / 1830 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 13 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 14:40:30Z
;

[FutureEM]

"WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME."

[cycloneye]

Avila explains well the eastward shift.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.

[Annie Oakley]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241456
XXAA 74158 99288 70870 08187 99002 25437 04046 00021 25236 04045
92701 20010 03559 85430 17841 03067 88999 77999
31313 09608 81441
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2875N08707W 1444 MBL WND 04055 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03562 002812 WL150 04551 084 REL 2880N08703W 144134 SPG 2875N0
8707W 144442 =
XXBB 74158 99288 70870 08187 00002 25437 11947 20811 22850 17841
33823 17858 44812 /////
21212 00002 04046 11999 04045 22991 04554 33980 04052 44975 04057
55967 04058 66964 04054 77953 04060 88920 03559 99887 03567 11850
03067 22812 03068
31313 09608 81441
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 15
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2875N08707W 1444 MBL WND 04055 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03562 002812 WL150 04551 084 REL 2880N08703W 144134 SPG 2875N0
8707W 144442 =
;

[Frank P]

Not sure why the MS coast is not in any warnings? Or did I miss that somewhere?

[lebron23]

[quote="FutureEM"]New track map sends it right at LA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents[/quote


Not really. New track shows it between Texas and Florida.

Disregard the line

[ObsessedMiami]

Miami really dodged the rainfall bullet. Sun is out here. Hang in there our brother Floridians up the peninsula. Still, tornados even down here in Boca

[jinftl]

Sounds like they are not done shifting the track...this was just a first go at that...

Avila explains well the eastward shift.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm a bit surprised given the track thus far has been dead on with the GFS. Think this swings east in time.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241500
AF302 0204A DEBBY2 HDOB 32 20120624
145000 2906N 08723W 8119 01848 //// +145 //// 051066 067 039 001 01
145030 2907N 08724W 8119 01847 //// +141 //// 053068 068 036 003 01
145100 2908N 08726W 8119 01848 //// +142 //// 051066 068 037 002 01
145130 2909N 08727W 8121 01849 //// +134 //// 051065 067 034 003 01
145200 2910N 08728W 8116 01857 //// +137 //// 051061 064 033 003 01
145230 2912N 08730W 8117 01860 //// +128 //// 049060 061 033 001 01
145300 2913N 08731W 8117 01863 //// +124 //// 050060 061 032 003 01
145330 2914N 08732W 8122 01857 //// +125 //// 050059 060 033 001 01
145400 2915N 08734W 8122 01859 //// +131 //// 050058 060 033 002 01
145430 2916N 08735W 8119 01865 //// +126 //// 047054 057 032 001 01
145500 2917N 08736W 8118 01868 //// +126 //// 049055 056 030 002 01
145530 2918N 08738W 8119 01869 //// +131 //// 047055 055 028 001 01
145600 2919N 08739W 8117 01874 //// +133 //// 041052 055 024 002 01
145630 2921N 08740W 8121 01871 //// +133 //// 039049 050 027 002 01
145700 2921N 08742W 8109 01885 //// +136 //// 044051 052 023 002 05
145730 2920N 08743W 8118 01876 //// +141 //// 037048 051 /// /// 05
145800 2918N 08742W 8126 01870 //// +139 //// 034044 046 027 002 05
145830 2916N 08742W 8118 01873 //// +137 //// 038050 052 027 002 01
145900 2914N 08742W 8119 01869 //// +135 //// 042052 053 027 002 01
145930 2912N 08742W 8122 01865 //// +135 //// 041052 053 028 001 01
$$

[jinftl]

Tropical storm watch on west coast of florida to just north of tampa bay area...given that all the winds are on the east side, any further track adjustments could bring t.s. conditions to more of west coast of FL

[johngaltfla]

And the GFS wins.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1102 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DELRAY BEACH...BOCA RATON...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1057 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BOCA
RATON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BOCA RATON...
WHISPER WALK...
DELRAY BEACH...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE

[Buck]

"WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME."

This one is very difficult even for the big-leaguers!

[Hurricane Andrew]

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