ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Just east of Destin, this is my weather station on the roof of my house for anyone that wants to keep track of things near the coast. I'm a mile north of the beach as a bird flies!

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLMIRAM6

[Hurricane Andrew]

NAM still offshore at 84
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

[MGC]

Sure don't like the 11am forecast track one bit....sill have a few day to worry though as Debby don't seem to be in any hurry. I wonder if the NHC has forgotten the Mississippi Coast exists as there are no watchs or warnings and Debby is forecast to pass not too far south of me.....MGC

[tropicwatch]

COC just out of radar range.



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[lebron23]

And the GFS wins.

Uh. No..

[ConvergenceZone]

I know the new track obviously isn't set in stone, but this is good news at least as far as the potential strength is concerned....If this would have been going to texas, I was really concerned that we may have been looking at a high end cat 2 at landfall...Now with the track more east, it doesn't have near as much time(or as good of an environment) to strengthen, so now probably looking at a very minimimal cat 1 storm(if that), and probably only a tropical storm if the track continues to shift east....

[Kingarabian]

20 mins until the Euro folks?

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 26/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0504A DEBBY
C. 25/2245Z
D. 28.5N 86.2W
E. 25/2315Z TO 26/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 26/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0604A DEBBY
C. 25/1045Z
D. 28.7N 87.0W
E. 26/1115Z TO 26/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION AT 26/2000Z

[jinftl]

All eyes were on day 5 or beyond solutions and bam! Good morning Florida Panhandle and maybe even tampa bay!

When NHC says they need to be ready to make additional track adjustments and given the wind field already...folks down to tampa need to pay attention

[tolakram]

[loon]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

[northjaxpro]

I'm a bit surprised given the track thus far has been dead on with the GFS. Think this swings east in time.

Dean, given that the center is already within 100-150 miles of the FL panhandle/Big Bend coast, and the forward NE motion of 6 mph has been discerned by Recon, I am inclined more and to believe that the GFS will come through the best with its solution it has held steadfast to for the past several days. At 6 mph, it is not moving at a crawl at the moment and it is only getting closer and closer to the coast with time. It is appearing in my view that there may be just enough of a weakness there from the East Coast trough to grab Debby during the next 36 hours or so. I agree with you that a more eastward shift will come with the track as time progresses.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lebron23]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Port O Connor, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is the main landfall threat area to me.... TS Winds may extend all the way down to the Tampa area...One crazy storm

[Vortex]

20 mins until the Euro folks?

12z GFS rolls in 15, Euro around 2pm

[lebron23]

20 mins until the Euro folks?

GFS you mean..
Euro is 1pm CDT

[Kingarabian]

Oh okay sorry I mixed up. Alarm clock just woke me up.

[gone2beach]

Not sure why the MS coast is not in any warnings? Or did I miss that somewhere?

We do have. You can monitor local weather here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 88.885&e=0

[tolakram]

Dean, given that the center is already within 100-150 miles of the FL panhandle/Big Bend coast, and the forward NE motion of 6 mph has been discerned by Recon, I am inclined more and to believe that the GFS will come through the best with its solution it has held steadfast to for the past several days. At 6 mph, it is not moving at a crawl at the moment and it is only getting closer and closer to the coast with time. It is appearing in my view that there may be just enough of a weakness there from the East Coast trough to grab Debby during the next 36 hours or so. I agree with you that a more eastward shift will come with the track as time progresses.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 0Z GFS did have Debbie moving west for a bit (nearly stalled), then back east. Only the Canadian has a steady NE track at the moment.

Step through both the 0z and 6Z GFS, and also the 0z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Nimbus]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Map provided by Accuweather.
----------------
Hurricane Andrew THREAT Outlook (HATO) 11am
RED means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area shortly, with winds, heavy rain, and other threats.

YELLOW means that a strong TS or hurricane could impact the area within 36 hours, and/or that a TS could effect the area in the shorter term with heavy rain, winds, and a tornado threat.

BLUE means that a weakish TS may effect the area within 36 hours, or that a TD/Weak TS is causing heavy rain, but lighter winds, and a tornado threat in the area.

Now in map form.


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Good heads up for Nola.

Following the JB link the ridge is quite evident in the WV rotating with winds east through South Dakota down through Chicago. The axis of the western gulf ULL is definitely losing latitude. Even if most of the mid level energy gets stripped NE, in 48 hours the forecast could look very different.

[jinftl]

At 11 AM EDT, Apaclachicola gusting to 54 mph!

APALACHICOLA E36G54