ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241632
AF302 0204A DEBBY3 HDOB 41 20120624
162000 2831N 08549W 8117 01774 //// +170 //// 142019 020 015 004 01
162030 2832N 08548W 8117 01775 //// +171 //// 145020 021 015 004 01
162100 2833N 08546W 8117 01778 //// +171 //// 150021 022 015 003 01
162130 2835N 08545W 8122 01774 //// +167 //// 146021 022 015 003 01
162200 2836N 08544W 8117 01780 //// +167 //// 144020 020 018 002 01
162230 2837N 08542W 8119 01779 //// +168 //// 140020 020 018 002 01
162300 2838N 08541W 8118 01780 //// +166 //// 137020 020 019 001 01
162330 2839N 08540W 8120 01779 //// +168 //// 137019 020 022 000 01
162400 2841N 08538W 8121 01780 //// +165 //// 142021 022 020 002 01
162430 2842N 08537W 8118 01785 //// +165 //// 142023 024 021 001 01
162500 2843N 08536W 8119 01784 //// +162 //// 141026 027 022 001 01
162530 2844N 08535W 8119 01784 //// +160 //// 139025 026 022 003 01
162600 2845N 08533W 8118 01784 //// +165 //// 139027 028 024 001 01
162630 2847N 08532W 8121 01784 //// +164 //// 141028 028 025 003 01
162700 2848N 08531W 8117 01787 //// +161 //// 140029 030 026 003 01
162730 2849N 08529W 8118 01786 //// +163 //// 141031 032 026 003 01
162800 2850N 08528W 8121 01786 //// +161 //// 142031 032 024 003 01
162830 2851N 08527W 8121 01787 //// +160 //// 140033 034 026 003 01
162900 2853N 08525W 8118 01791 //// +163 //// 139035 036 027 003 01
162930 2854N 08524W 8117 01795 //// +161 //// 140036 037 027 003 01
$$

[Portastorm]

(tornado watch quote deleted)


Finaly!!!! They Have failed and are wayy to late with this!!! Warnings all over down here!!! I called them and emailed them! Also spoke with Tom in Tampa NWS.

Aquawind ... I understand your concern but be careful as you are toeing the line in violating the following Storm2K rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT12 KNHC 241628
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 24/16:11:10Z
B. 28 deg 09 min N
086 deg 11 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. 38 kt
E. 223 deg 52 nm
F. 336 deg 48 kt
G. 224 deg 67 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 15 C / 1829 m
J. 19 C / 1829 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 18
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 14:49:00Z
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT pass from 16:30z
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... BBY_as.png
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... BBY_as.png

[SeminoleWind]

she looks like she is trying to wrap all the way around, but she sure is having a hard time keeping together on the southwest side, what a sheared mess.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... hannel=vis

[robbielyn]

Carl Parker says d/t the llc being so far east it seems that the trough will pick it up and send into fl. He said there's more clarity now as to what Debby will do. He said European model underestimated the strength and influence of the ull pushing debby eastward and Debby now is too far east to go westward.

[brunota2003]

That pass is from 0225 UTC: Look at the purple numbers on the bottom side of the image.

[Buck]

After a brief respite from the stronger rains here on Cape San Blas (near Port St. Joe and Apalachicola), they've picked back up. The winds are howling... I would guess between 30 and 40 mph sustained with gusts up towards 50. Walked out to the "beach" (I know, I know) and its nasty. Angry waves about 1,000 feet further inland than usual. Wind very strong at the beach.

[Dave]

Without Clouds...

[Kennethb]

JB has packed up his tent and moved to the GFS camp.

[StormTracker]

I know we like to geek out on tracks, predictions and crow... but can we all just give one HOLY CRAP for NHC for Debby? I for one would hate to be in that forecaster chair today. =)

I'm in that forecast chair, and I'm hoping I awaken from this nightmare any minute...

Wxman57, I have a confession to make! You used to be that guy on the opposite team that I couldn't stand because he was so good at what he did! Over the last couple of seasons, I've learned to really appreciate what you stand for & what you do to help others like myself here at STORM2K! You are now what I refer to as a "go-to-guy"! There is a compliment in here somewhere! Keep up the great work and go GFS! And now, back on topic...(sorry mods, I had to serenade him publicly)...ST

[Aquawind]

(tornado watch quote deleted)


Finaly!!!! They Have failed and are wayy to late with this!!! Warnings all over down here!!! I called them and emailed them! Also spoke with Tom in Tampa NWS.

Aquawind ... I understand your concern but be careful as you are toeing the line in violating the following Storm2K rule:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

Gotcha.. We have had constant tornado warnings for 4 hours and finally they issue a watch..fact is all.

[Flakeys]

Over an inch and a half of rain so far. Wind is not bad, highest gust at 28. Starting at 2pm Citrus county will give out sandbags to those in need.

[loon]

24 hours ago (still 96L:


Now:


There is still much uncertainty, but the consensus has tightened up. How things change in just a day.

I'm not sure i call that a tightening of consensus.. I mean, BAM* went from way west/south to now LOOPING and going west. I mean granted they are closer together but still some pointing east some west. Just glad we get to Monday morning QB this and fight over GFS vs EURO instead of actually having to make that call that peoples lives depend on! =)

[Jevo]

12z HWRF Initialized


12z HWRF +12

[northjaxpro]

Carl Parker says d/t the llc being so far east it seems that the trough will pick it up and send into fl. He said there's more clarity now as to what Debby will do. He said European model underestimated the strength and influence of pushing debby eastward and Debby now is too far east to go westward.

Well, for the most part, I agree with his reasoning. Debby also in my view as made it far enough north into the NE Gulf as well in which will also allow her to feel the weakness in place.

[loon]

Hm...what if the models are picking up on two different things? What if the upper half of Debby decouples and shoots NE over Florida while leaving behind the LLC of Debby? Wouldn't the LLC then drift/move westward as the ridge builds back in behind the trough? What a forecast nightmare that would create, though.

I forget which model it was but I swear I remember people talking about that exact scenario going happening.

[KWT]

Its getting hard to ignore the eastward idea into Florida now. Personally not what i was expecting given the model suite was more pitched towards the western solution but thats what happens with the weather sometimes!

[tailgater]

Hm...what if the models are picking up on two different things? What if the upper half of Debby decouples and shoots NE over Florida while leaving behind the LLC of Debby? Wouldn't the LLC then drift/move westward as the ridge builds back in behind the trough? What a forecast nightmare that would create, though.

Yeah that's possiblily why the NAM and HWRF take a weakening system west. Also looking at the rain shield, it's northernly motion is slowing so I'd be looking for an east or west motion if any in the short term

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z HWRF Initialized


12z HWRF +12

1285?!