ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[FutureEM]

That NW quadrant seems to be a haven of 70kt+ fl winds, such a sheared cyclone but it still packs a punch.

[rockyman]

Interesting the Euro has Debby moving WEST of north at landfall

[brunota2003]

I do have to say...the GFS is usually pretty good when it comes to the "whole picture" sort of deal...so even without a precise center, it was showing that everything in general should head off to the N/NE. The other models have a tendency to take what is given to them as a center too literally, versus looking at the thing as a whole. Great for when you have a confirmed center (and it is the correct center, versus 5 little centers all rotating around one big one, pick the wrong one and the wrong motion gets inputted into the model, etc., etc)...and now that we have recon and a REAL center fix, along with motion, wham...everything comes into a much better agreement.

[barometerJane61]

Why does the official map for this site have Debby going to Louisiana?

[Annie Oakley]

Put it back Dave lol

[AdamFirst]

Why does the official map for this site have Debby going to Louisiana?

Because that was the 11 AM NHC forecast.

Expect more changes soon.

[StormingB81]

Still raining pretty good in orlando

[brunota2003]

And with that...recon is heading home! Next flight departs at 6:45 pm this evening, if I remember correctly. Thanks!

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Webinar streaming here (Quality is bad)

http://www.rickeystokesnews.com/

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like they are going home.

[WeatherGuesser]

Amen to that. In less than one month we've gone from drought to surplus down here in SWFL. The price of living in paradise and the tropics. But I've had enough rain thank you very much.

But that's part of the problem. FL is mostly sand or swamp. It's easy to get too dry since rain just drains through back into the bigger bodies of water.

Up here in the Ohio valley, we're not used to being 10" or more below average rainfall and we were REALLY hoping for this to be driven north somehow.

[tolakram]

Why does the official map for this site have Debby going to Louisiana?

The map shows the NHC forecast track, which has not changed yet.


All,

I have had to delete some posts. This thread is for model output and discussions directly related to it. Pictures and other useless posts that do not add to the conversation will be removed. If it continues warnings will be issued.

[Dave]

Annie you and I were pulling the info at the exact same time. lol

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241817
XXAA 74188 99290 70868 08196 99000 23623 03058 00502 ///// /////
92677 21023 04079 85408 18627 03559 88999 77999
31313 09608 81751
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2898N08687W 1754 MBL WND 03068 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03566 999812 WL150 03058 083 REL 2902N08684W 175142 SPG 2898N0
8686W 175351 =
XXBB 74188 99290 70868 08196 00000 23623 11966 21216 22850 18627
33812 /////
21212 00000 03058 11987 03057 22969 03571 33956 03576 44948 03575
55940 04080 66924 04079 77905 04069 88850 03559 99812 03554
31313 09608 81751
61616 AF302 0204A DEBBY OB 25
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2898N08687W 1754 MBL WND 03068 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 03566 999812 WL150 03058 083 REL 2902N08684W 175142 SPG 2898N0
8686W 175351 =
;

That's it...Mission Over.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why does the official map for this site have Debby going to Louisiana?

I don't think the next NHC map comes out until 5pm est, if I am not mistaken.

[Jevo]

Why does the official map for this site have Debby going to Louisiana?

Because that was the 11 AM NHC forecast.

Expect more changes soon.

No she's right... the Intermediate still has a hurricane into LA

[Evil Jeremy]

Intermediate advisories do not have changes to the track. Next change will be at 5pm.

[Annie Oakley]

Dave you have me scared lol........you are much quicker on the trigger than I am..........

[robbielyn]

I don't understand why anyone would rely on a computer model more heavily than real time synoptic data. If you every 6 hours see the conditions doing one thing and u see that an ull is present and changing the game, why would someone just go with the euro because its more reliable? Im a major amateur and I just kept watching visible sat and it clearly showed the ull's influence pushing Debby eastward. Last night when I heard stacy's explanation for the gfs solution, I bought it hook line and sinker cause I knew he knew tons more than me and I have nothing but respect for his and nhc's wisdom. I wake up this a.m. And find that ull still keeping debby eastward. So my ? Is: wouldn't it be better to use models in conjunction with real time synoptic data rather than the other way around? Since they tweaked the gfs, maybe that is now the more reliable model. That should have gotten more creedence than it got. I don't think this would hv been so hard to forecast if all they had was visble satellite. While I respect the need for models I do think they can get in the way of the obvious d/t putting them above everything else.

Ps: I'm not bashing nhc they do do an awesome job I'm just wondering if they relied more heavily on conditions vs. Models instead of vice versa thats all.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

[FutureEM]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

They didn't for Beryl, which made it to 70mph and had a more concentric look at landfall. Not saying they won't issue it though, we will have to see.