ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Nimbus]

Elena remained stationary for over 24 hours before making her U turn. West coast of Florida is beginning to get over-saturated by Debbie's rain bands so I hope she doesn't decide to go stationary.

Even 24 hours stationary and the ridge would have her trapped.

[johngaltfla]

I do not know if anyone else noticed this but is there some kind of reason that Mississippi is not included in the warnings. Maybe I am wrong but La and Al are in the warning but Mississippi is not.

Trust me. If AFM's thinking is correct on this as per last night, then there is a major shift in watches/warnings coming with the 5 pm ET update. Mississippi MIGHT be out of the woods.

[CronkPSU]

well that was one of the craziest camp check in days ever...i am looking at the radar, all of you on the west coast of florida must be getting hammered considering what we are getting here in NW Orlando/Orange County and that the radar is even worse on your side of the state

[Jevo]

Big Joe B tweeted his new forecast track and intensity....

@BigJoeBastardi: Weatherbell track change at noon today back to ne path, which is climo path. Models added to confusion, not solution



PS: This is not NHC.. and yes... yes I did update my Avatar

[allicat1214]

I do not know if anyone else noticed this but is there some kind of reason that Mississippi is not included in the warnings. Maybe I am wrong but La and Al are in the warning but Mississippi is not.

The NOLA's Weather Service posted this on their FB page around noon regarding the lack of TS warnings for MS:



Concerning the confusion over the locations currently included in the tropical storm warning and the gap along the MS coast...

A Tropical Storm Warning specifically means that tropical storm force winds are expected within the next 36 hours. Based on the latest forecast from NHC, the onset of tropical storm force winds is outside of this window and thus a tropical storm warning is not currently needed for the MS Coast.

In fact, based on the current forecast, the storm is moving so slowly that the warnings are not currently needed for the LA coast, either. However, because the warnings were already issued yesterday, they were left in effect.

Basically what we're dealing with here is a timing issue and watches or warnings will be adjusted as necessary with future NHC forecasts. We hope this helps clear up any confusion.

[Ikester]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

Recon also found large patches of winds in the 70+ knot range (at flight level). The highest I saw was 78 knots (using a 0.8 reduction factor yields a 63 knot surface wind). Judging by the lack of convection on the western side, 0.8 might be a little too high...with winds closer to 55 or 60 knots. If convection builds up, especially on the western side, Debby could easily become a hurricane...so I believe that, yes, Hurricane Watches need to be hoisted.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So does this mean that Debby could become a hurricane as early as today , tonight, or tomorrow

Unlikely. Still has a lot of organizing to do and there is very little deep convection near the LLC. As a forecaster, I've always been leary of reductions from flight level to surface. Some of my fellow meteorology buddies would disagree but it's rare that you ever see the surface 1-min. wind observed. I noticed that during Beryl. However it should be noted that observation points are spaced miles apart so getting the highest sustained wind over an observation point is usually a crap shoot.

[psyclone]

well that was one of the craziest camp check in days ever...i am looking at the radar, all of you on the west coast of florida must be getting hammered considering what we are getting here in NW Orlando/Orange County and that the radar is even worse on your side of the state

we are getting very heavy rain here but a break may be in store for the immediate coast in about an hour based on radar trends here in the pinellas county area.

[ronjon]

Jevo love your avatar - too funny. Debby's LLC is exposed without convection - she seems subtropical to me.

[brunota2003]

Recon found winds of 58kts (67mph) at the surface on a Dropsonde. This supports 60kts (70mph). If the NHC makes it official at 5, I have a hard time believing they will not issue Hurricane watches along the Florida Panhandle.

Recon also found large patches of winds in the 70+ knot range (at flight level). The highest I saw was 78 knots (using a 0.8 reduction factor yields a 63 knot surface wind). Judging by the lack of convection on the western side, 0.8 might be a little too high...with winds closer to 55 or 60 knots. If convection builds up, especially on the western side, Debby could easily become a hurricane...so I believe that, yes, Hurricane Watches need to be hoisted.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So does this mean that Debby could become a hurricane as early as today , tonight, or tomorrow

It's hard to say. A dropsonde measured 58 knot winds at the surface (as noted above). Winds aloft went from about 65 to 70 knots earlier to 75 to 78 knots at max (which corresponds well with surface winds, winds aloft go up 10 knots, surface winds seem to go up 10 knots). If the NHC goes with 60 knots (70 mph) as the 5 pm advisory, only a 5 knot increase would result in a hurricane. Recon could find that on this evenings mission, or could find a weaker system, for all we know.

[ronjon]

I don't understand why anyone would rely on a computer model more heavily than real time synoptic data. If you every 6 hours see the conditions doing one thing and u see that an ull is present and changing the game, why would someone just go with the euro because its more reliable? Im a major amateur and I just kept watching visible sat and it clearly showed the ull's influence pushing Debby eastward. Last night when I heard stacy's explanation for the gfs solution, I bought it hook line and sinker cause I knew he knew tons more than me and I have nothing but respect for his and nhc's wisdom. I wake up this a.m. And find that ull still keeping debby eastward. So my ? Is: wouldn't it be better to use models in conjunction with real time synoptic data rather than the other way around? Since they tweaked the gfs, maybe that is now the more reliable model. That should have gotten more creedence than it got. I don't think this would hv been so hard to forecast if all they had was visble satellite. While I respect the need for models I do think they can get in the way of the obvious d/t putting them above everything else.

Ps: I'm not bashing nhc they do do an awesome job I'm just wondering if they relied more heavily on conditions vs. Models instead of vice versa thats all.

I think you've made some good points, robbielyn. I mentioned earlier that it would have been wise just to stall the system south of La in the first advisory and admit the uncertainty. Sometimes, I think the 5-day track forces some decisions that might not have been made. More than anything, I think the NHC needs to make sure they have consensus from both the euro and GFS in the future before committing to a determined track.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC discussion (Stewart) on why they went with the western solution was right on and with merit. To say otherwise is insulting since they were going off guidance at that time like all of us were doing. You had the majority of the globals pointing that way so really a no brainer to ditch the GFS at that time.

This was confirmed by just about every weather media I was able to access as well so lets not get carried away with "MIGHTY GFS" banter.


Personally, I think the GFS got it right for all the wrong reasons. It wasnt the center relos or the sheared mess that it was seeing, it was the trof that was dragging it out to the NE or it was giving birth to Ernesto that weakened the ridging.....so before you all GFS huggers get all worked up into a frenzy about how wonderful the GFS is the EURO still is at that top in verification the last what oh say 8 years now. That is a fact.

It was a hard loss for me too, ROCK.

I get what ROCK is saying. El Nino effects on TC's is still difficult to understand. However, CMC and GFS have gotten substantial upgrades. Technology is not like "rooting for a sports team", as a promet put before, but utilizing the best model we have and to recognize that technology replaces itself. Is the EURO truly dethroned? Probably not, but the CMC just yesterday saw the center relocations and sent it inland over the Eastern GOM which now seems accurate.

[ROCK]

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

[Aric Dunn]

big shifts by all the models. this a few days out but looks like the ridging is not nosed in there enough.

[AHS2011]

Anyone else noticing the clouds beginning to fully wrap around the center?

[tolakram]

It was a hard loss for me too, ROCK.

I get what ROCK is saying. El Nino effects on TC's is still difficult to understand. However, CMC and GFS have gotten substantial upgrades. Technology is not like "rooting for a sports team", as a promet put before, but utilizing the best model we have and to recognize that technology replaces itself. Is the EURO truly dethroned? Probably not, but the CMC just yesterday saw the center relocations and sent it inland over the Eastern GOM which now seems accurate.

The pro's never use one model, and would never make a change based on one storm. The Euro has a verifiable history of being the most accurate model in most situations. If the GFS was right for the right reasons then it did a great job. Was it? I'm certainly not qualified to tell you.

[ROCK]

well shes not on shore yet....and the west run might still happen...I think she is finally feeling the ridge....

[AdamFirst]

Anyone else noticing the clouds beginning to fully wrap around the center?

Aye. While not real visible on the infrared satellites, on the visible it's clear as crystal

[Evil Jeremy]

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed this up for full effect. You can clearly see the LLC now that the clouds have cleared. Is it still moving?

[Weatherfreak000]

well shes not on shore yet....and the west run might still happen...I think she is finally feeling the ridge....

Saw that....would be amusing if HWRF was right all along. HWRF sends it west across the GOM to those who may not know.