ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Latest Visible

[Jevo]

Not sure if any of you have ever seen this site.. Http://www.chasertv.com

It shows you live streaming images of all current chasers at the moment that broadcast, you click on their little car icon on the map and it opens the stream. It seems currently there is one guy hauling butt up from Naples towards the big bend..

Not sure if Mark and the HIRT was heading out so I thought Id offer another live alternative

As always we have http://www.hurricanetrack.com

['CaneFreak]

Who cares what the models say? Look at the satellite loop. I see a definite west wobble in the last several frames.

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

[bamajammer4eva]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Speed this up for full effect. You can clearly see the LLC now that the clouds have cleared. Is it still moving?

Did it look like it jumped west a few miles there?

[Hammy]

To me it seems to still be moving northeast, but slowing down somewhat (which it also did last night for a short time) but if you put the visible satellite on, and put the forecast plots on, it's almost to the 00Z position if that swirl is the center

I don't think Debby will become a hurricane at this point though given the seemingly steady wind shear and what appears to be dry air wrapping into the east

disclaimer: not an official forecast

[ROCK]

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

let me rephrase.. ..high anticipated west turn that was progged just 3 runs ago by just about every model known to man except the GFS....better?

[Evil Jeremy]

Who cares what the models say? Look at the satellite loop. I see a definite west wobble in the last several frames.

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

I don't know what you guys are seeing. I see a slow drift east, if not stationary movement. As for "Who cares what the models say"..... well.... forecasters for starters? The models have changed today, and backed off the overall western path. Is it possible that Debby will move west? Of course. Wobble watching doesn't discount the models though. We finally have a consensus.

[loon]

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

let me rephrase.. ..high anticipated west turn that was progged just 3 runs ago by just about every model known to man except the GFS....better?

+1

[tolakram]

Low cloud product (who introduced this to us last night? I love this loop), speed can be adjusted in the FPS drop down.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

[djmikey]

well shes not on shore yet....and the west run might still happen...I think she is finally feeling the ridge....

I sure wish it came to TX, but I think at this point it's a done deal. New here, but from what I can tell, no models even going to TX now, huh? I dont think NHC will stray from the GFS/EURO to go with HWRF....JMO! Love your hopeful posts ROCK!

[ronjon]

TVCN - which is a multi-model blend brings Debby into the FL Big Bend near Perry. GFS brings the storm in just north of Cedar Key. The mean of the GFS ensembles brings Debby ashore at Cedar Key.

[thetraveler]

Even though I am from east Texas I am working in the Lake Placid area for now and we have been under tornado warnings for over 2 hours now. I think that is a record for me. LOL

[brunota2003]

There seems to be a swirl embedded within the overall center that is moving west (and convection is building toward the west, too). The overall circulation is still heading to the NE though.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PALMDALE...
NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LA BELLE...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 324 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MUSE...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MUSE...
PALMDALE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF VENUS...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PALMDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VENUS.
ARCHBOLD.
LAKE PLACID.
LAKE ISTOKPOGA...SEBRING REGIONAL AIRPORT.

[artist]

Even though I am from east Texas I am working in the Lake Placid area for now and we have been under tornado warnings for over 2 hours now. I think that is a record for me. LOL

how is it there, I have family up there on vacation for the weekend.

[ROCK]

[

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

[/quote]

I don't know what you guys are seeing. I see a slow drift east, if not stationary movement. As for "Who cares what the models say"..... well.... forecasters for starters? The models have changed today, and backed off the overall western path. Is it possible that Debby will move west? Of course. Wobble watching doesn't discount the models though. We finally have a consensus.[/quote]



not really a strong concensus when you have the NOGAPS, EURO, and HWRF still showing somewhere other than the GFS NE track. Personally I dont give a rats butt where it goes as long as its not NE.

[Kingarabian]

The ULL pretty much dictated that forecoming west turn. Euro over played it while the GFS low balled it. They could have been either right or wrong... It's just that models have a hard time initializing ULL's.

Lets just be thankful we now have some kind of guidance agreement for the NHC to use.

[EmeraldCoast93]

From the NWS Mobile/Pensacola graphicast

Tropical Storm Debby is moving into a weakness within the base of an east coast upper level trof and an upper high nosing eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Forecast uncertainty continues to be high with some weather guidance bringing the center of Debby into the Southeast while some want to stall the center south of the Big Bend...over the Northern Florida Panhandle...possibly turning it back to the west early in the week. Regardless of the track...impacts from large breakers bringing some minor beach erosion and potentially deadly rip currents will be felt well away from the center in the near term.

[artist]

[

she is right on NHC forecast points so far and looks like a wobble to the west...maybe this is the west turn that has been highly anticipated by about every model out there except for the GFS...we shall see....

Debby has been continually to the right of the NHC points, and the west turn is no longer the favored solution. GFS, GFDL, UKMET, and CMC all show east from here. EURO shows a little west, but then north. The highly anticipated west turn isn't that highly anticipated anymore.

[/quote]

I don't know what you guys are seeing. I see a slow drift east, if not stationary movement. As for "Who cares what the models say"..... well.... forecasters for starters? The models have changed today, and backed off the overall western path. Is it possible that Debby will move west? Of course. Wobble watching doesn't discount the models though. We finally have a consensus.[/quote]



not really a strong concensus when you have the NOGAPS, EURO, and HWRF still showing somewhere other than the GFS NE track. Personally I dont give a rats butt where it goes as long as its not NE. [/quote]
now, now rock, I know you hate to see your king euro busted but...
On the conference call they did mention it stalling for around 24 hours and the possibility of another burst in its intensity. Seems it is a waiting game at this point.