ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Dry air entrainment put a number on the convection. But there is a surge of moisture working northward from the lower gulf region so I wouldn't say she's done. She could very well refire deeper convection later. She is over cooler waters but not so cool she couldn't recover especially if the shear slackens a bit.

[ROCK]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

[Evil Jeremy]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

... Really? Recon is still finding 60mph winds, and the pressure has dropped. Just because it doesn't look pretty doesn't mean it's close to dying. It's not even close at all.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250115
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 19 20120625
010830 2845N 08626W 8429 01453 9955 +180 +180 042028 029 033 002 01
010900 2843N 08625W 8426 01455 9953 +180 +180 039028 029 030 002 01
010930 2842N 08623W 8429 01451 9951 +180 +180 037027 028 027 004 01
011000 2841N 08622W 8430 01447 9949 +180 +180 041025 027 021 002 01
011030 2840N 08621W 8428 01450 9948 +180 +180 041024 024 015 002 01
011100 2839N 08619W 8429 01448 9946 +180 +180 043023 023 014 002 01
011130 2838N 08618W 8428 01446 9944 +180 +180 041022 023 007 001 01
011200 2836N 08617W 8429 01443 9943 +180 +180 042020 022 006 002 01
011230 2835N 08615W 8429 01444 9941 +180 +180 044020 020 003 004 01
011300 2834N 08614W 8429 01442 9939 +180 +180 041020 021 006 002 01
011330 2833N 08613W 8430 01440 9938 +180 +180 037020 020 004 002 01
011400 2832N 08611W 8432 01437 9936 +185 +183 034020 020 002 005 00
011430 2830N 08610W 8429 01439 9937 +184 +183 029021 021 004 004 03
011500 2829N 08609W 8425 01443 9936 +180 +180 024021 022 000 003 05
011530 2828N 08607W 8432 01435 9935 +181 +180 022021 021 000 001 00
011600 2827N 08606W 8430 01432 9934 +180 +180 028017 020 000 003 05
011630 2826N 08604W 8430 01434 9929 +190 +181 034013 016 001 003 00
011700 2825N 08602W 8426 01437 9928 +189 +179 021011 012 000 003 03
011730 2825N 08601W 8428 01435 9927 +194 +172 033010 011 /// /// 03
011800 2824N 08559W 8430 01430 9926 +193 +170 031010 011 /// /// 03
$$

[jdray]

This shouldn't come as a shock.

[Annie Oakley]

Dropsonde

000
UZNT13 KNHC 250114
XXAA 75018 99292 70870 08197 99000 25421 02040 00000 25421 /////
92682 20204 03557 85413 17603 04053 88999 77999
31313 09608 80056
61616 AF302 0304A DEBBY OB 09
62626 SPL 2916N08697W 0059 MBL WND 02550 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03555
000843 WL150 02045 084 REL 2919N08695W 005653 SPG 2916N08697W 005
901 =
XXBB 75018 99292 70870 08197 00000 25421 11961 22007 22850 17603
33843 16400
21212 00000 02040 11987 02049 22981 02546 33975 02551 44966 02547
55955 02556 66922 03557 77914 04564 88855 04055 99843 04052
31313 09608 80056
61616 AF302 0304A DEBBY OB 09
62626 SPL 2916N08697W 0059 MBL WND 02550 AEV 20802 DLM WND 03555
000843 WL150 02045 084 REL 2919N08695W 005653 SPG 2916N08697W 005
901 =
;

[CrazyC83]

Will daytime heating slow down the severe weather in Florida overnight? (only to see it come back tomorrow)

[Evil Jeremy]

[ROCK]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

... Really? Recon is still finding 60mph winds, and the pressure has dropped. Just because it doesn't look pretty doesn't mean it's close to dying. It's not even close at all.

yes really... do you see any NEW convection firing? do you see anything that resembles a core? do you see the dry air get sucked into the circulation and the response the last few hours? it doesnt have long at all...IMO...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[CronkPSU]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

sure seems like it is coming down as hard as ever here, definitely windier than it has been all day

[jdray]

Those of us inland are still under some fun times. Jeez, less than 1 month time and some areas could see 30+ inches of rain or more between Beryl, stalled fronts and now Debby. Holy crap.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
824 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

[ROCK]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

sure seems like it is coming down as hard as ever here, definitely windier than it has been all day

of course, FL will take the bands from Debby and most likely that is where all the action will be......

[JamesCaneTracker]

dry air, lack of convection and large disorganized center...bones is close to calling this one....IMO

... Really? Recon is still finding 60mph winds, and the pressure has dropped. Just because it doesn't look pretty doesn't mean it's close to dying. It's not even close at all.

yes really... do you see any NEW convection firing? do you see anything that resembles a core? do you see the dry air get sucked into the circulation and the response the last few hours? it doesnt have long at all...IMO...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Don't forget we are in the time of day when Convection should be at it's lowest... It's about this time when Convection should start increasing again and then through the night and early morning.

[Annie Oakley]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250125
AF302 0304A DEBBY HDOB 20 20120625
011830 2823N 08557W 8432 01429 9926 +189 +175 028009 011 /// /// 03
011900 2823N 08556W 8429 01431 9927 +180 +180 035008 009 /// /// 05
011930 2822N 08554W 8432 01428 9928 +180 +180 033008 009 /// /// 05
012000 2821N 08552W 8436 01423 9926 +180 +180 032005 008 004 004 05
012030 2820N 08551W 8425 01435 9924 +180 +180 041004 005 /// /// 05
012100 2819N 08549W 8432 01426 9926 +180 +180 036002 003 /// /// 05
012130 2819N 08547W 8430 01428 9926 +180 +180 138003 004 /// /// 05
012200 2818N 08546W 8429 01429 9925 +180 +180 190008 009 /// /// 05
012230 2817N 08544W 8430 01431 9929 +190 +190 192010 010 /// /// 05
012300 2816N 08543W 8429 01432 9927 +180 +180 201012 014 001 004 01
012330 2815N 08542W 8429 01431 9926 +180 +180 207015 016 002 003 01
012400 2813N 08540W 8430 01432 9926 +180 +180 212017 017 001 003 01
012430 2812N 08539W 8429 01432 9928 +180 +180 217020 022 004 003 01
012500 2811N 08538W 8429 01434 9929 +187 +183 213022 023 006 003 00
012530 2810N 08537W 8429 01435 9931 +188 +176 213024 025 011 001 00
012600 2809N 08535W 8430 01434 9930 +192 +170 219024 025 004 003 00
012630 2808N 08534W 8430 01438 9931 +194 +171 220025 026 010 000 00
012700 2807N 08533W 8429 01438 9932 +195 +171 221025 026 007 001 00
012730 2805N 08531W 8426 01443 9935 +191 +170 220026 027 003 001 00
012800 2804N 08530W 8432 01439 9935 +195 +172 214025 026 001 004 00
$$

[Evil Jeremy]

[FutureEM]

Parts of Florida will finally get a rain break.

[crimi481]

I just noticed the NHC Forecast points show landfall in N. Fl on Thurs/Friday? Oh my
Does that imply it will say as a "Storm" that whole time? On antd off bands/ squall/ coastal action?

[jaxfladude]

Those of us inland are still under some fun times. Jeez, less than 1 month time and some areas could see 30+ inches of rain or more between Beryl, stalled fronts and now Debby. Holy crap.

Great
I got some really good rains during Beryl, not wanting even close to the same amounts from Debby....

[CronkPSU]

I just noticed the NHC Forecast points show landfall in N. Fl on Thurs/Friday? Oh my
Does that imply it will say as a "Storm" that whole time? On antd off bands/ squall/ coastal action?

this is what my weather underground Apopka forecast looks like right now, so I guess they are still thinking it will be a TS at that point


Tonight
Chance of a Thunderstorm 75 °F
Chance of T-storms
70% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow
Chance of a Thunderstorm 84 °F
Chance of T-storms
70% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm 75 °F
Chance of T-storms
50% chance of precipitation

Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm 88 | 70 °F
Chance of T-storms
60% chance of precipitation

Wednesday
Fog 84 | 68 °F
Fog
Tropical Storm Debby

Thursday
Fog 86 | 68 °F
Fog
Tropical Storm Debby

[ROCK]

I am very familar with D-max and yes it could fire something off later tonight.....that big gulp of dry did a number and it headed straight into the COC....also land proximity is not helping.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html