ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[Ntxw]

She's looking more and more like a mid latitude storm. Wonder if they will reclassify her as subtropical.

[blazess556]

Looking like Debby may be downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses Florida. However, once Debby reemerges in the Atlantic, it definitely has a chance to restrengthen and may approach hurricane status.

Agree that it should be downgraded, don't agree that it will likely survive to regenerate east of Florida.

You may be right. Debby is looking poor right now and I think its best chance for survival may be to reform to the ENE in the Atlantic. If that were to occur just off the coast of GA/FL, it may be able to get its act together again. From what I see, there seems to be decent low-level convergence there. Both the GFS/Euro also seem to have Debby reinvigorate itself in the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

For recon images, try to always include some point of reference, and if possible keep the image width below 640 pixels. I shrink GE down so the entire viewable area ends up being about 620 pixels wide.

Right now they are running down the coast, trying to sample the strongest winds in the few remaining active bands.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking like Debby may be downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses Florida. However, once Debby reemerges in the Atlantic, it definitely has a chance to restrengthen and may approach hurricane status.

Agree that it should be downgraded, don't agree that it will likely survive to regenerate east of Florida.

I hope you are right Wxman! Interesting excerpt from the Marine forecast disucssion today out of Wilmington. Dont usually see those terms in the marine forecast I plan to move a boat saturday a little way (no going out of the waterway) so trying to stay flexible but am reworking storm plans.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...THE EVENTUAL PATH OF DEBBY IS STILL SO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THAT THE LONG TERM MARINE FORECAST OF WIND
AND WAVES IS ABOUT AS SCABROUS AS IT GETS. WILL MAKE FINAL
ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 400 AM CONFERENCE CALL WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATH ACROSS
FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHICH IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT
THAN THE FARCICAL FORECAST RIGHT NOW.

[wxman57]

The last observations in the latest recon set were interesting:

135400 2629N 08221W 8462 01531 0090 +174 +142 208054 055 036 000 00
135430 2628N 08221W 8459 01535 0092 +172 +141 207056 057 036 001 00
135500 2627N 08221W 8460 01535 0095 +170 +142 208056 056 036 001 00
135530 2625N 08220W 8461 01534 0096 +169 +142 207057 057 035 001 00
$$

That's enough to support the current 50mph, and readings could be stronger in the next data set.

Those winds are 200 miles SE of the center in that band of squalls streaming northeastward into the southwestern Peninsula. Debby has a distinctly non-tropical appearance now.

[GCANE]

LI in the core has gone from positive to negative.

Convective cap may be breaking.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[GCANE]

Definitely getting parcel lift on the west flank. CUs filling in nicely.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251403
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 21 20120625
135600 2624N 08220W 8462 01535 0097 +170 +136 205056 056 036 000 00
135630 2623N 08219W 8459 01537 0097 +170 +134 205056 056 035 002 00
135700 2622N 08219W 8462 01535 0095 +170 +134 206056 056 034 001 00
135730 2620N 08218W 8458 01540 0098 +170 +131 205054 054 035 001 00
135800 2619N 08218W 8458 01541 0099 +170 +127 205052 053 035 002 00
135830 2618N 08217W 8463 01535 0101 +170 +128 204053 053 035 000 00
135900 2617N 08217W 8464 01539 0103 +170 +127 205052 053 035 001 00
135930 2615N 08217W 8459 01541 0101 +170 +125 205051 052 036 000 00
140000 2614N 08216W 8463 01537 0103 +170 +129 205054 055 036 001 00
140030 2613N 08216W 8462 01542 0104 +170 +128 205052 053 035 001 03
140100 2612N 08215W 8461 01543 0105 +170 +130 204052 052 035 001 00
140130 2610N 08215W 8460 01543 0103 +170 +131 204049 049 034 001 00
140200 2609N 08214W 8462 01543 0107 +170 +132 205049 049 036 001 00
140230 2608N 08214W 8460 01548 0109 +170 +132 205048 049 035 000 00
140300 2607N 08213W 8459 01547 0108 +171 +132 205049 050 037 000 00
140330 2605N 08213W 8459 01547 0110 +170 +131 206049 050 036 000 00
140400 2604N 08212W 8463 01545 0108 +170 +128 206050 050 036 001 00
140430 2603N 08212W 8461 01547 0110 +170 +128 206053 054 035 001 03
140500 2602N 08211W 8461 01548 0111 +170 +127 205053 054 035 000 00
140530 2600N 08211W 8459 01550 0111 +170 +128 205053 054 035 000 00
$$
;

[dexterlabio]

what are the factors that will stop Debby from regenerating east of FL?

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251413
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 22 20120625
140600 2559N 08211W 8462 01546 0110 +170 +133 206054 055 035 000 00
140630 2558N 08210W 8462 01546 0111 +170 +133 206054 054 036 000 00
140700 2557N 08210W 8459 01550 0111 +170 +132 206054 054 035 002 03
140730 2555N 08209W 8461 01547 0111 +170 +133 206054 054 035 001 00
140800 2554N 08209W 8459 01550 0112 +170 +131 206052 052 035 001 00
140830 2553N 08208W 8463 01547 0113 +166 +140 208053 053 035 000 03
140900 2552N 08208W 8455 01556 0115 +165 +144 209054 054 035 000 00
140930 2550N 08207W 8462 01548 0115 +166 +138 209054 054 035 001 03
141000 2549N 08207W 8466 01546 0115 +167 +128 208052 053 035 000 03
141030 2548N 08206W 8457 01554 0115 +166 +126 209050 051 034 001 00
141100 2547N 08206W 8463 01547 0115 +169 +125 210050 050 035 001 00
141130 2545N 08206W 8457 01557 0117 +166 +129 211051 052 036 000 00
141200 2544N 08205W 8461 01552 0117 +165 +131 211052 052 034 001 03
141230 2543N 08205W 8462 01552 0119 +165 +139 211052 053 034 000 00
141300 2541N 08204W 8462 01552 0118 +165 +137 211053 053 034 001 00
141330 2540N 08204W 8461 01553 0120 +165 +132 211052 053 034 002 00
141400 2539N 08203W 8461 01557 0121 +165 +128 211051 051 034 001 03
141430 2538N 08203W 8458 01558 0120 +166 +129 212050 051 033 001 00
141500 2536N 08202W 8466 01551 0122 +165 +141 213051 051 035 001 00
141530 2535N 08202W 8459 01557 0124 +165 +131 213051 052 034 001 00
$$
;

[artist]

FLC105-251445-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120625T1445Z/
POLK FL-
1018 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EDT FOR EASTERN
POLK COUNTY...

AT 1018 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. LOCATED NEAR LAKE WALES...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE WALES.
POINCIANA.

[Dave]

Mark I'll grab a few pictures but at 11 am edt I've got to leave & will be gone until this evening.



Center fix is 995 mb...can't get the marker to show very well again today.

[Evil Jeremy]

what are the factors that will stop Debby from regenerating east of FL?

The fact that Debby might not even make it east of Florida, as a tropical cyclone or at all.

[wxman57]

what are the factors that will stop Debby from regenerating east of FL?

Lack of low-level convergence, dissipating circulation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251423
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 23 20120625
141600 2534N 08201W 8461 01557 0125 +165 +124 213050 050 033 000 00
141630 2532N 08201W 8462 01557 0125 +165 +123 214049 049 033 001 00
141700 2531N 08201W 8462 01556 0124 +165 +122 212046 047 029 003 03
141730 2531N 08202W 8463 01556 0123 +165 +124 208049 049 /// /// 03
141800 2533N 08203W 8461 01558 0128 +165 +137 207049 050 029 001 03
141830 2534N 08204W 8462 01562 0131 +165 +146 208050 051 030 002 00
141900 2535N 08206W 8461 01558 0124 +165 +148 209049 050 031 000 00
141930 2536N 08207W 8462 01556 0121 +164 +148 209049 050 032 001 00
142000 2538N 08208W 8459 01558 0122 +163 +151 207050 051 033 000 00
142030 2539N 08210W 8462 01553 0121 +165 +150 206050 050 033 001 00
142100 2540N 08211W 8459 01557 0121 +164 +151 209049 050 033 001 00
142130 2541N 08212W 8461 01553 0118 +165 +148 211049 049 032 003 00
142200 2543N 08214W 8461 01551 0116 +162 +151 210050 051 032 000 00
142230 2544N 08215W 8462 01548 0116 +162 +150 210052 053 032 002 00
142300 2545N 08216W 8458 01550 0113 +163 +148 211053 053 033 002 00
142330 2546N 08218W 8462 01541 0109 +160 +157 211051 051 033 000 00
142400 2548N 08219W 8461 01547 0112 +160 +158 210050 050 031 002 00
142430 2549N 08220W 8462 01535 0095 +160 +158 210051 052 035 001 00
142500 2550N 08222W 8458 01543 0105 +160 +158 212052 052 035 002 00
142530 2551N 08223W 8462 01541 0108 +160 +159 211051 052 033 002 00
$$
;

[jdray]

Whether she dissipates or not, her winds were never the issue, rain was.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...TORNADO WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
UNTIL 2 PM...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

.UPDATE...MESO-LOW WHICH FORMED OVER JAX THIS MORNING MOVED NNE
AND IS ALONG THE SE GA COAST. MOST OF THE BANDS OF STEADY PCP
THAT WERE OVER THE AREA WERE MOVING OFFSHORE AND IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE PCP. HAVE LOWERED POPS DOWN INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECTING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PUSH NNE FROM CNTL FL INTO
THE SE ZONES AS WELL FROM THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SO KEPT PREVIOUS CATEGORICAL POPS
GOING AFT 18Z. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF AROUND
250 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. WHILE THERE IS A LULL IN PCP...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
GET GOING WILL THE POTENTIAL TO BE TORNADIC. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS THE GROUNDS ARE MORE THAN SATURATED
WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 8 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA

Some parts of Jax have seen 8+ inches since midnight.
Drainage ditches are near overflowing along I-10, any more rain and I can see parts of I-10 affected.
I had to drive through a foot of water just to get out of my neighborhood.
The ground has never had a chance to dry since Beryl. Rain is beneficial, too much in a short span is not.

[tropicwatch]

I dont think we can write off Debby yet. The shear above her has relaxed, circulation evident on radar and thunderstorms trying to fire up closer to center.

[otowntiger]

what are the factors that will stop Debby from regenerating east of FL?

Lack of low-level convergence, dissipating circulation.

So for selfish reason and slightly off topic, any ideas on what the weather will be like in St. Augustine Thursday-Sunday? I'm hoping that she will have cleared out by then, much less re-strengthen nearby.

Thanks!

[ROCK]

IMO, looks like a naked swirl with no convection.... it will take some time for the LLC to spin down...