ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251453
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 26 20120625
144600 2640N 08316W 8462 01523 0077 +179 +140 213035 036 031 002 00
144630 2641N 08318W 8456 01531 0081 +177 +140 209034 035 030 001 00
144700 2642N 08319W 8461 01523 0081 +169 +147 208035 035 030 001 00
144730 2643N 08320W 8462 01522 0082 +165 +148 208035 036 031 000 00
144800 2645N 08321W 8457 01524 0077 +169 +140 209036 036 031 001 00
144830 2646N 08323W 8463 01514 0075 +169 +127 213035 036 031 000 00
144900 2647N 08324W 8458 01520 0076 +169 +127 213035 035 031 000 00
144930 2648N 08325W 8454 01523 0076 +167 +129 212035 035 031 000 03
145000 2649N 08326W 8466 01509 0073 +168 +128 211035 036 030 001 00
145030 2650N 08328W 8462 01509 0067 +172 +122 208036 036 029 001 00
145100 2651N 08329W 8457 01514 0065 +170 +134 208036 037 029 001 00
145130 2653N 08330W 8462 01501 0058 +170 +141 210037 038 030 001 00
145200 2654N 08331W 8466 01496 0058 +167 +149 211038 038 030 001 00
145230 2655N 08333W 8463 01499 0053 +174 +140 210039 039 031 000 00
145300 2656N 08334W 8458 01503 0052 +175 +150 207039 039 030 000 00
145330 2657N 08335W 8459 01501 0052 +172 +154 209039 041 031 000 00
145400 2658N 08337W 8456 01505 0050 +174 +150 211041 041 030 000 00
145430 2659N 08338W 8464 01494 0054 +164 +157 211040 041 030 001 00
145500 2700N 08339W 8468 01490 0054 +163 +153 213040 040 031 000 03
145530 2702N 08340W 8457 01501 0050 +168 +157 219039 040 033 000 00
$$
;

[HurrMark]

If the circulation stays intact, wouldn't surprise me to see this eventually regroup in the Atlantic...but probably won't be anything but a fish at that point between the East Coast and Bermuda.

[northjaxpro]

Whether she dissipates or not, her winds were never the issue, rain was.

Some parts of Jax have seen 8+ inches since midnight.
Drainage ditches are near overflowing along I-10, any more rain and I can see parts of I-10 affected.
I had to drive through a foot of water just to get out of my neighborhood.
The ground has never had a chance to dry since Beryl. Rain is beneficial, too much in a short span is not.

Yeah, I received over 7 inches at my location in north Jacksonville from 4:00 yeterday to 8 :00 this morning. Also, when that Meso-Low feature moved through earlier this morning, I had received a wind gust in a torrential microburst of 53 mph.

We are in a dry slot currently, but it will fill in with much more rain to come as the deep moisture pump cirulating in from Debby will continue for the next few days. Flooding is really going to be a major concern here and across all of the region this week, along with these quick spin-up small scaled tornadoes that may happen as well in some areas.

[cycloneye]

If the circulation stays intact, wouldn't surprise me to see this eventually regroup in the Atlantic...but probably won't be anything but a fish at that point between the East Coast and Bermuda.

In fact,some models bomb Debby to hurricane while in the Gulfstream waters.

[jaxfladude]

Change of forecast track at 10 AM CDT advisory.

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/9977 ... w5nlsm.gif

Oh great !!!
My family is already starting to take floor-level items to higher places in the house...Waters are lapping at the end of my driveway due to roads flooded enough to have wakes by passing vehicles.....worst for me since Fay 2008....

[FutureEM]

The ever unreliable JMA pushes Debby into the ATL, and then yanks her back into the Gulf. Either that or it mixed it's data up.

[cycloneye]

Todays TCPOD for Tuesday and Wednesday.

NOUS42 KNHC 251345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-038

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 27/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0704A DEBBY
C. 26/2230Z
D. 29.0N 84.8W
E. 26/2330Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 27/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0804A DEBBY
C. 26/1015Z
D. 29.2N 84.5W
E. 27/1115Z TO 27/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[StarmanHDB]

If the circulation stays intact, wouldn't surprise me to see this eventually regroup in the Atlantic...but probably won't be anything but a fish at that point between the East Coast and Bermuda.

In fact,some models bomb Debby to hurricane while in the Gulfstream waters.

Interesting....Which models, Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

If the circulation stays intact, wouldn't surprise me to see this eventually regroup in the Atlantic...but probably won't be anything but a fish at that point between the East Coast and Bermuda.

In fact,some models bomb Debby to hurricane while in the Gulfstream waters.

Interesting....Which models, Cycloneye?

The main ones GFS/ECMWF.

[thetruesms]

Yeah, the 96 hr image is old - if it were from the same run, its valid time would be 00Z Friday

[northjaxpro]

Change of forecast track at 10 AM CDT advisory.

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/9977 ... w5nlsm.gif

Oh great !!!
My family is already starting to take floor-level items to higher places in the house...Waters are lapping at the end of my driveway due to roads flooded enough to have wakes by passing vehicles.....worst for me since Fay 2008....

Yeah, this event looks to surpass Fay I believe when it is all said and done. Fay in 2008 hung around for a couple of days and dropped 14 inches total at my location. Already, I have received over 7 inches and we have copious amounts of rain still to come as Debby will be around seemingly forever in this weak steering environment she's in right now. We may be looking at an historic rain event here and the peninsula for that matter with Debby.

[OuterBanker]

At least the 11am starts to take it somewhere before the July 4th holiday. And (hopefully) harmlessly out to sea. At least none of the models are taking it up the coast anymore. If I'm correct didn't some models take it off Carolinas arout the 4th?

I'm starting to think she will be around till Labor Day at this point

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251513
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 28 20120625
150600 2725N 08407W 8457 01483 0029 +168 //// 212039 040 029 003 01
150630 2726N 08408W 8465 01477 //// +165 //// 209038 040 031 001 01
150700 2727N 08409W 8463 01475 0027 +171 //// 208038 040 029 002 01
150730 2729N 08411W 8471 01469 0029 +169 //// 204036 037 030 000 01
150800 2730N 08412W 8455 01482 0024 +171 //// 209035 036 029 001 01
150830 2731N 08413W 8462 01473 0022 +170 +167 214034 035 029 002 00
150900 2732N 08415W 8461 01474 0023 +170 +166 213035 035 030 001 00
150930 2733N 08416W 8463 01469 0022 +174 +165 213036 037 031 000 00
151000 2734N 08417W 8462 01471 0022 +168 //// 213037 037 032 001 01
151030 2735N 08418W 8459 01471 //// +162 //// 214037 040 033 001 01
151100 2737N 08420W 8473 01462 //// +167 //// 208034 035 030 005 01
151130 2738N 08421W 8465 01465 0016 +173 //// 210036 037 030 001 01
151200 2739N 08422W 8459 01471 0014 +175 +174 212037 038 030 001 00
151230 2740N 08424W 8459 01468 0014 +172 //// 211037 038 030 001 01
151300 2741N 08425W 8462 01466 0015 +170 //// 211039 039 030 000 01
151330 2742N 08426W 8461 01465 0010 +173 //// 214039 039 030 000 01
151400 2743N 08427W 8461 01465 0013 +163 //// 214038 039 031 003 01
151430 2744N 08429W 8463 01461 //// +164 //// 220041 041 030 004 01
151500 2745N 08430W 8461 01462 0008 +171 //// 220038 040 031 002 01
151530 2747N 08431W 8459 01462 0003 +179 +176 217037 037 032 001 00
$$
;

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251523
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 29 20120625
151600 2748N 08432W 8461 01458 0000 +180 +173 217036 037 030 001 00
151630 2749N 08434W 8461 01458 0000 +180 +172 213037 037 030 002 00
151700 2750N 08435W 8467 01452 0001 +175 +175 216038 038 030 000 00
151730 2751N 08436W 8462 01456 0000 +175 //// 218036 036 029 003 01
151800 2752N 08438W 8463 01455 9998 +176 +176 218036 036 030 000 00
151830 2753N 08439W 8461 01455 9998 +175 //// 214037 038 029 001 01
151900 2754N 08440W 8459 01455 9997 +175 //// 217037 038 031 003 01
151930 2755N 08441W 8461 01454 9996 +177 //// 220037 038 032 002 01
152000 2756N 08443W 8462 01449 9994 +175 //// 220038 038 031 001 01
152030 2758N 08444W 8461 01449 9988 +180 +180 219038 039 032 001 00
152100 2759N 08445W 8462 01449 9989 +180 //// 221037 037 031 001 01
152130 2800N 08446W 8459 01450 9988 +179 //// 222037 037 030 001 01
152200 2801N 08448W 8461 01448 9986 +180 //// 221036 037 030 002 05
152230 2802N 08449W 8463 01445 9984 +181 //// 219035 036 033 001 01
152300 2803N 08450W 8463 01444 9985 +180 //// 220029 032 033 002 01
152330 2804N 08451W 8461 01444 9983 +180 //// 223026 027 032 001 01
152400 2805N 08453W 8460 01443 9979 +179 //// 225027 027 033 003 01
152430 2806N 08454W 8463 01439 9979 +180 //// 223027 028 033 002 01
152500 2807N 08455W 8459 01441 9978 +182 //// 225025 026 033 001 01
152530 2808N 08456W 8461 01443 9977 +185 +180 226025 025 029 003 00
$$
;

[Ptarmigan]

Well played...


WV_Enhanced




12:45 UTC Funktop

Debby looks pretty bad.

[bayoubebe]

:quote]

Debby looks pretty bad.

Any chance she will dissipate? It's hard to believe the center can survive much longer in the gulf, but this is viewing with my amateur eyes.

[Stormcenter]

You're being too nice......I mean she looks really baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

Well played...


WV_Enhanced




12:45 UTC Funktop

Debby looks pretty bad.

[TheBurn]

14:45z VIS / IR

[Hurricane Andrew]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251533
AF309 0404A DEBBY HDOB 30 20120625
152600 2809N 08457W 8462 01440 9975 +187 +177 229025 025 028 002 00
152630 2811N 08459W 8459 01440 9973 +185 +178 231024 024 021 002 00
152700 2812N 08500W 8462 01437 9974 +185 +180 232025 025 020 002 03
152730 2813N 08501W 8462 01438 9973 +186 +180 234025 026 022 001 00
152800 2814N 08502W 8461 01439 9972 +186 +177 233023 024 022 001 00
152830 2815N 08504W 8462 01435 9972 +185 +177 233023 023 022 001 00
152900 2816N 08505W 8462 01434 9971 +185 +175 236022 023 022 001 00
152930 2817N 08506W 8461 01435 9970 +185 +179 236021 021 021 001 00
153000 2818N 08507W 8462 01434 9971 +185 +181 238020 021 020 001 03
153030 2819N 08508W 8461 01437 9970 +186 +177 239020 021 021 001 00
153100 2820N 08509W 8462 01432 9966 +185 +176 242019 019 018 001 00
153130 2822N 08510W 8463 01429 9965 +185 +176 241018 018 016 002 00
153200 2823N 08511W 8461 01432 9965 +185 +175 244017 018 021 001 00
153230 2824N 08512W 8462 01428 9963 +188 +173 250016 017 017 000 03
153300 2825N 08513W 8459 01429 9961 +190 +173 252016 016 016 001 03
153330 2827N 08514W 8462 01427 9960 +190 +173 254015 015 017 001 03
153400 2828N 08515W 8462 01427 9959 +189 +175 253015 016 015 001 00
153430 2830N 08515W 8461 01428 9960 +185 +174 247014 015 017 000 00
153500 2831N 08516W 8461 01428 9961 +185 +172 244014 014 013 002 00
153530 2833N 08516W 8461 01428 9962 +185 +185 240013 013 017 001 00
$$
;

[Riptide]

At least the 11am starts to take it somewhere before the July 4th holiday. And (hopefully) harmlessly out to sea. At least none of the models are taking it up the coast anymore. If I'm correct didn't some models take it off Carolinas arout the 4th?

I'm starting to think she will be around till Labor Day at this point

Both the GFS and Euro take Debby off the coast in varying distances, with the euro being the closest and strongest. We will see if they continue doing this. Thinking huge wave action right now, no direct effects.