ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Air Force Met]

Convection exploding and the low is once again headed to the convection.

Repeat until inland.

[Evil Jeremy]

Winds across peninsula Florida and adjacent waters. Notice the large area of sustained high winds off the west coast of Florida (big area of green and yellow shading). Strongest winds remaining offshore:

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/1807 ... iswind.png

Are those MPH or KTS?

[tallywx]

It'd be nice to get that huge stationary convective band over southern Leon County up over northern Leon County where the worst of the drought is. Amazing that we're talking about a distance of 15 miles being the difference in a drought-buster there.

[TampaFl]

2PM position - Map courtesy BoatUS.com

[GCANE]

LI at core is now +1. Still struggling to break the cap.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[GCANE]

Borderline Hot Tower

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg

[TampaFl]

2PM position with forcasted track. Map courtesy BoatUS.com.

[crimi481]

Enlighten me -please
Is that HUGE blow up to the north - going to sing down to center - or is center going to draw up to meet with it?

Wow
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[GCANE]

Enlighten me -please
Is that HUGE blow up to the north - going to sing down to center - or is center going to draw up to meet with it?

Wow
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

It will definitely moisten the mid-level dry air streaming in from AL/MS.

[jlauderdal]

Any idea what kind of drastic move they might be seeing? Seems like we are fairly locked on to a slow mover then ejected out sometime in the next few days.

Miami NWS http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html
MODELS
DO THOUGH SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE CONTINUOUS STRONG BANDING AROUND
DEBBY MAY REMAIN TO THE N OF S FLA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD REMAINS FOR S FLA IN THE SHORT TERM.
POTENTIALLY SOME CLEARING WITH SUN IN THE LONG TERM BUT WITH
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY W COAST AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND E. A DRASTIC
MOVE BY DEBBY COULD CHANGE THIS THINKING. STAY-TUNED.

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5
and
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... hannel=vis

As AFM mentioned before, looks like the center is being pulled NE which will result in landfall soon.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&numframes=5
and
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... hannel=vis

As AFM mentioned before, looks like the center is being pulled NE which will result in landfall soon.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah seems to be reforming closer to the convection. the overall center is very large and broad so will have to wait and see if another vort develops back offshore.

[Stormcenter]

Debby loop.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=8

[sittingduck]

Finally had a break in the clouds and saw the sun for about 30 minutes - wind has really picked up here though

[northjaxpro]

Any idea what kind of drastic move they might be seeing? Seems like we are fairly locked on to a slow mover then ejected out sometime in the next few days.

Miami NWS http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html
MODELS
DO THOUGH SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE CONTINUOUS STRONG BANDING AROUND
DEBBY MAY REMAIN TO THE N OF S FLA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD REMAINS FOR S FLA IN THE SHORT TERM.
POTENTIALLY SOME CLEARING WITH SUN IN THE LONG TERM BUT WITH
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY W COAST AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND E. A DRASTIC
MOVE BY DEBBY COULD CHANGE THIS THINKING. STAY-TUNED.

My best educated guess to what the Miami mets may be referring to is as a "drastic move" by Debby is one of two things.

1. Debby drifts south-southeast over a bit warmer ssts than where she has upwelled currently and slowly intensifies, increasing winds and bringing back significant rainfall back into that area.

or

2. Debby somehow stays intact and reaches the Atlantic to a point just off the FL east coast, and strengthens some there.

I am thinking scenario #1 is what they are probably referring to mostly with Debby drifting south and remaining in the GOM.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast of this poster and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SeminoleWind]

can make out the circulation pretty well...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... h&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

Could the lack of convection overnight be the reason for increased convection today? (In other words, is daytime heating playing a role)

[jlauderdal]

Any idea what kind of drastic move they might be seeing? Seems like we are fairly locked on to a slow mover then ejected out sometime in the next few days.

Miami NWS http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html
MODELS
DO THOUGH SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE CONTINUOUS STRONG BANDING AROUND
DEBBY MAY REMAIN TO THE N OF S FLA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD REMAINS FOR S FLA IN THE SHORT TERM.
POTENTIALLY SOME CLEARING WITH SUN IN THE LONG TERM BUT WITH
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY W COAST AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND E. A DRASTIC
MOVE BY DEBBY COULD CHANGE THIS THINKING. STAY-TUNED.

My best educated guess to what the Miami mets may be referring to is as a "drastic move" by Debby is one of two things.

1. Debby drifts south-southeast over a bit warmer ssts than where she has upwelled currently and slowly intensifies, increasing winds and bringing back significant rainfall back into that area.

or

2. Debby somehow stays intact and reaches the Atlantic to a point just off the FL east coast, and strengthens some there.

I am thinking scenario #1 is what they are probably referring to mostly with Debby drifting south and remaining in the GOM.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ok, that makes sense...scenario 1 would definitely prolong the debby experience for florida..anyone remember debby that was forecast to nail sofla as a 2/3 and then took a dive south and shipwrecked in the dominican....miami media was all fired up and at the 5 pm advisory it was basically bones time, what a letdown the media had.

[SeminoleWind]

Incredible blow up of convection, wow

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tallywx]

Winds at Apalachicola airport just shifted around to the northeast with a pressure of 995 mb there. I think we might have landfall.