ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest recon pass picked up 993.0 pressure with 12kts of flight wind, so if I'm not mistaken, that would make the estimated pressure 992, right?

Anyways, the recon set ended as they were beginning to cross through the center. Next set might have lower pressures.

[jdray]

40-50 inches of rain in panhandle possible per dr. Greg forbes. And no that is not a typo

Its going to be a nasty nasty nasty flooding issues from Panama Beach to JAX

Black Creek is at 21.55 feet, flood is at 16.
Sopchoppy River is at 31.4 feet, forecast to hit 41, flood is 28ft.

Stay dry people.

[BigB0882]

Oh, the Euro is still getting the stink eye from me, too. I will only buy the Westward trend with Euro AND GFS. Otherwise, this is going out to sea and radar seems to support that.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260248
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 27 20120626
024100 2852N 08451W 8458 01405 9928 +192 +187 145010 011 009 002 00
024130 2851N 08450W 8462 01398 9925 +198 +176 158008 011 011 002 00
024200 2849N 08450W 8463 01398 9928 +189 +177 165013 014 002 001 03
024230 2848N 08450W 8462 01399 9930 +188 +178 162010 011 /// /// 03
024300 2847N 08452W 8455 01404 9927 +188 +178 136006 008 000 004 03
024330 2847N 08454W 8462 01397 9927 +189 +180 059003 004 000 003 03
024400 2847N 08456W 8459 01401 9928 +185 +184 021006 008 000 001 03
024430 2847N 08458W 8463 01399 9932 +182 //// 019013 015 000 000 01
024500 2847N 08500W 8460 01402 9930 +187 //// 008016 017 000 004 05
024530 2847N 08502W 8459 01405 9930 +191 +173 006019 020 001 002 00
024600 2847N 08504W 8459 01405 9931 +191 +174 359022 024 004 001 00
024630 2847N 08505W 8461 01405 9936 +184 //// 351024 025 005 001 01
024700 2847N 08507W 8461 01407 9935 +187 +182 351022 022 016 003 00
024730 2846N 08509W 8461 01409 9938 +185 +183 357021 021 027 002 00
024800 2846N 08511W 8463 01407 9940 +186 +182 354023 024 028 003 00
024830 2846N 08513W 8461 01410 9942 +187 +178 346024 025 026 003 00
024900 2846N 08515W 8460 01413 9948 +178 //// 353021 022 026 001 01
024930 2846N 08517W 8462 01413 9951 +175 //// 357020 020 029 001 01
025000 2845N 08519W 8461 01416 9954 +172 //// 359023 025 027 001 01
025030 2845N 08520W 8461 01418 //// +168 //// 354028 031 026 004 01
$$
;

Pressure likely around 992mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

Image poster weatherSnoop went offline. I can cover.

[Hurricane Alexis]

This could turn out to be another Allison.

Stay safe my fellow Floridians!

[tallywx]

For those who don't think that Debby isn't still packing a wind punch, this personal weather station at Alligator Point, FL northeast of Apalachicola just reported winds of 53 mph, gusting to 69 mph in that heavy convection.

http://classic.wunderground.com/weather ... =KFLALLIG2

[ozonepete]

40-50 inches of rain in panhandle possible per dr. Greg forbes. And no that is not a typo

Its going to be a nasty nasty nasty flooding issues from Panama Beach to JAX

Black Creek is at 21.55 feet, flood is at 16.
Sopchoppy River is at 31.4 feet, forecast to hit 41, flood is 28ft.

Stay dry people.

This is just really bad. All of you peope have to be really vigilant and try to convince anyone who doesn't realize how serious this is. Good luck to you guys.

[cycloneye]

10 PM CDT Discussion was delayed but here it is

WTNT44 KNHC 260300
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AFTER AN INTENSE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD SHIELD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM CENTER OF
CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SFMR WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 42 KT TO THE WEST AND
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH 59-KT AND 56-KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE TALLAHASSEE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING LARGE WINDS OF 60-65 VELOCITIES
BETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION...THOSE
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OVER LAND. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR 040/02 KT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 18Z AND 00Z INDICATE
DEBBY REMAINS TRAPPED IN A BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP
DEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...DEBBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS
BEFORE IT CREEPS SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA IN DAYS 3-4. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE STEERING FLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
DEBBY WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH
DAY 3...AND IS THEN A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE
TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE DEBBY REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...BUT
DEBBY WILL BE OVER OR INTERACTING WITH LAND AT DAYS 3 AND 4...SO
THAT WILL PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
IMPROVING SHEAR CONDITIONS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...DEBBY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER HAVING WEAKENED
OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 29.2N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 29.3N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.4N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 29.5N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 29.6N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 29.8N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 30.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/0000Z 30.8N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260258
AF309 0504A DEBBY HDOB 28 20120626
025100 2845N 08522W 8462 01419 //// +164 //// 352031 032 027 004 05
025130 2844N 08524W 8461 01419 //// +165 //// 351033 034 026 004 05
025200 2843N 08526W 8461 01421 //// +164 //// 348034 036 026 005 01
025230 2842N 08527W 8463 01423 //// +165 //// 347038 040 028 004 01
025300 2841N 08528W 8457 01430 //// +165 //// 355037 038 023 002 01
025330 2840N 08530W 8461 01427 //// +164 //// 355036 037 025 001 01
025400 2838N 08531W 8461 01430 9977 +165 //// 356035 036 028 003 01
025430 2837N 08533W 8461 01431 //// +161 //// 354035 036 026 003 01
025500 2836N 08534W 8462 01429 //// +160 //// 348035 036 027 003 01
025530 2834N 08536W 8462 01433 //// +160 //// 347037 040 025 004 01
025600 2833N 08537W 8459 01439 //// +155 //// 346041 043 025 003 01
025630 2832N 08539W 8462 01435 //// +152 //// 347043 045 024 003 01
025700 2831N 08540W 8461 01440 //// +152 //// 347045 046 025 002 01
025730 2829N 08542W 8461 01443 9996 +154 //// 347045 046 021 004 01
025800 2828N 08543W 8457 01448 //// +152 //// 348045 046 023 002 01
025830 2827N 08544W 8460 01446 9998 +153 //// 346046 047 022 002 01
025900 2825N 08546W 8463 01441 //// +155 //// 348042 042 020 003 01
025930 2824N 08547W 8462 01446 //// +155 //// 347041 042 022 002 01
030000 2823N 08549W 8461 01449 //// +156 //// 345040 041 020 002 01
030030 2821N 08550W 8463 01449 0001 +162 //// 345038 040 019 002 01
$$
;

[crimi481]

This is one of strangest storms I seen in my 40 years in Florida. The center is almost illusionary
I am absolutely clueless. No handle on it
In S.W. Fl coast - and getting really high winds. Feels like 50-60 mph winds at times - getting stronger now

Is this a strange storm to you?

[Evil Jeremy]

[ozonepete]

Amateur question...Why are all the websites and tv channels expecting central Florida to get huge amounts of rain tomorrow and Wednesday? Looks pretty dry to me and more dry air keeps getting into the system

Don't know if you got a good answer to that. Although the southern half looks pretty dry right now, the system is moistening up and less dry air is getting into it now so it will probably send some pretty large concentrations of heavy thunderstorms over the central peninsula tomorrow. That's why.

[weatherSnoop]

Thanks, EJ... got caught up again checking on family in flash flood areas.

[Evil Jeremy]

Thanks, EJ... got caught up again checking on family in flash flood areas.

You want to take back over?

[weatherSnoop]

Not really...bed time so I can function at work tomorrow. Thank you, again

[Evil Jeremy]

No problem!

[Laser30033003]

Here on North Redington Beach we are getting hammered by really high winds. Highest we've seen...

[Dave]

Take them if you want Jeremy, sorta enjoying the rest tonight...I can take over later or when ever someone needs to take off.

[viberama]

Amateur question...Why are all the websites and tv channels expecting central Florida to get huge amounts of rain tomorrow and Wednesday? Looks pretty dry to me and more dry air keeps getting into the system

Don't know if you got a good answer to that. Although the southern half looks pretty dry right now, the system is moistening up and less dry air is getting into it now so it will probably send some pretty large concentrations of heavy thunderstorms over the central peninsula tomorrow. That's why.

Plus I think any sunshine that does get through tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere further. I fully expect to see sun here in the morning but we'll see clouds, showers and thunderstorms build tomorrow afternoon as things heat up.