ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

I have to leave in a few minutes but AF 306 is approaching the center of Debby now...

000
URNT15 KNHC 261138
AF306 0604A DEBBY HDOB 08 20120626
113100 2947N 08556W 8431 01496 0011 +183 +108 039041 042 022 004 03
113130 2946N 08555W 8427 01500 0009 +183 +110 038042 043 023 004 00
113200 2945N 08553W 8429 01497 0008 +181 +110 037043 044 024 004 00
113230 2944N 08551W 8429 01495 0009 +178 +111 036045 045 026 004 00
113300 2944N 08549W 8429 01495 0011 +173 +116 034045 046 025 003 00
113330 2943N 08548W 8428 01492 0007 +170 +137 032044 045 025 003 03
113400 2942N 08546W 8430 01489 0007 +170 +133 031045 046 024 005 00
113430 2941N 08544W 8431 01487 0005 +170 +140 030045 045 024 005 00
113500 2940N 08542W 8429 01488 0004 +171 +139 029045 045 026 004 00
113530 2939N 08541W 8427 01489 0003 +169 +143 028043 044 028 004 00
113600 2938N 08539W 8428 01488 9999 +176 +140 030041 042 026 005 00
113630 2937N 08537W 8429 01485 9997 +177 +142 032039 040 028 005 00
113700 2936N 08535W 8429 01485 9998 +174 +144 027039 039 027 005 00
113730 2935N 08534W 8431 01483 9998 +172 +150 025038 038 027 004 00
113800 2934N 08532W 8431 01483 9997 +173 +152 026038 038 024 005 00
113830 2933N 08530W 8431 01482 0000 +165 +159 028034 036 027 004 00
113900 2932N 08528W 8427 01484 9998 +166 +156 026035 036 026 004 00
113930 2931N 08526W 8429 01482 9993 +175 +149 025034 035 026 004 00
114000 2930N 08525W 8432 01479 9991 +178 +137 023033 034 024 005 00
114030 2929N 08523W 8428 01480 9989 +180 +137 023031 031 024 004 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Good morning! Just checked the gauge and overnight and accumulated an additional 4.25 inches to bring the total just over 11 inches at my location for this event with Debby thus far. Rain has started again now.

NHC now thinking forward speed of Debby may pick up a bit beginning late Thursday into Friday while the system moves across this area. I really hope it does that because folks the flooding levels are already getting to critical stages on the creeks and rivers across the area, especially the Black Creek in Clay County, already above flood stage. It may exceed the record stage of 25 feet.

Amazing

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261148
AF306 0604A DEBBY HDOB 09 20120626
114100 2928N 08521W 8430 01478 9990 +175 +136 023027 030 022 005 00
114130 2927N 08519W 8429 01479 9991 +170 +159 016021 022 025 004 00
114200 2926N 08517W 8430 01477 9990 +170 +167 016021 022 026 005 00
114230 2925N 08516W 8429 01477 9989 +168 +166 016022 022 026 004 00
114300 2924N 08514W 8426 01479 9988 +169 +168 018022 022 027 005 00
114330 2923N 08512W 8429 01473 9986 +168 //// 022021 022 026 004 01
114400 2922N 08510W 8433 01470 9986 +169 //// 029021 022 027 005 01
114430 2921N 08508W 8426 01475 9983 +170 +169 027021 022 027 004 00
114500 2920N 08507W 8430 01471 9982 +169 //// 027019 020 028 005 01
114530 2919N 08505W 8431 01469 9977 +176 +171 023021 022 029 005 00
114600 2918N 08503W 8426 01472 9973 +185 +166 023022 023 031 004 00
114630 2917N 08501W 8433 01464 9972 +185 +165 033022 023 028 005 00
114700 2916N 08459W 8429 01468 9973 +179 +166 032021 021 028 005 00
114730 2915N 08458W 8428 01469 9973 +178 +169 040018 019 029 004 00
114800 2914N 08456W 8430 01464 9971 +177 +174 042019 020 029 005 00
114830 2913N 08454W 8425 01469 9969 +180 +173 037018 019 029 005 00
114900 2912N 08452W 8429 01466 9969 +179 +172 037019 019 030 004 00
114930 2911N 08451W 8430 01462 9970 +175 //// 040020 021 029 005 01
115000 2910N 08449W 8429 01460 9970 +171 //// 040022 023 030 005 01
115030 2909N 08447W 8431 01457 9967 +172 //// 038023 025 030 005 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

Seems to me that she is below the 29th latitudethis moving, slowly moving ESE.

Yea, and I thought it was making landfall last night! Hopefully the models are correct and this moves over Florida quickly ... or at least quicker than originally forecast.

[mutley]

You beat me to it. Yes - A move more south and east for sure. Heading for Tampa area?
This should change track a bit
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

It looks like Debby and her associated convection are being pushed pretty hard this morning, by the High to her NW.

[tolakram]

loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=lc

Debbie looks to be really booking it toward the coast. Well, fast for Debbie anyway.

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

It looks like Tampa may see the landfall if it continues moving ESE.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 261158
AF306 0604A DEBBY HDOB 10 20120626
115100 2909N 08445W 8432 01457 9966 +175 //// 038020 021 030 005 01
115130 2908N 08444W 8430 01459 9964 +176 +174 034018 019 032 005 00
115200 2907N 08442W 8429 01457 9964 +174 //// 044014 014 031 005 01
115230 2906N 08440W 8436 01449 9965 +170 //// 038014 015 031 006 05
115300 2904N 08439W 8425 01461 9960 +176 //// 045014 015 026 006 01
115330 2903N 08437W 8434 01450 9957 +180 +179 044013 014 012 006 00
115400 2902N 08436W 8428 01456 9957 +180 +173 038013 014 005 005 03
115430 2901N 08434W 8432 01451 9956 +180 +180 043011 012 005 005 03
115500 2859N 08433W 8429 01452 9957 +177 +176 046010 011 000 006 03
115530 2858N 08431W 8433 01449 9956 +178 +177 042011 011 001 005 03
115600 2857N 08429W 8430 01452 9954 +180 +175 045009 010 003 003 03
115630 2856N 08428W 8430 01451 9954 +181 +174 042008 009 001 006 03
115700 2855N 08426W 8429 01449 9955 +176 +176 037005 007 001 005 00
115730 2853N 08425W 8431 01447 9953 +176 //// 085003 003 001 005 05
115800 2852N 08423W 8431 01447 9953 +177 //// 102003 004 007 005 01
115830 2851N 08421W 8430 01447 9952 +176 //// 146005 006 004 005 05
115900 2850N 08420W 8431 01445 9950 +180 +178 176008 009 009 003 03
115930 2849N 08419W 8429 01449 9949 +180 +178 201012 014 008 005 03
120000 2847N 08418W 8433 01444 9949 +180 +178 201015 017 015 007 00
120030 2846N 08417W 8430 01446 9952 +176 //// 209019 021 017 006 01
$$
;

Have to leave...someone else take over please.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY DRIFTING TOWARD FLORIDA GULF COAST...THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 84.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS EXPECTED
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Can't post consistently, but will post when I have a chance for the next half hour.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261208
AF306 0604A DEBBY HDOB 11 20120626
120100 2844N 08416W 8430 01447 9952 +175 //// 214022 023 017 004 01
120130 2843N 08415W 8431 01445 9953 +175 //// 220022 022 020 004 01
120200 2841N 08414W 8430 01449 9954 +178 +172 221023 025 016 005 00
120230 2839N 08413W 8431 01450 9956 +175 +171 220028 029 021 003 00
120300 2838N 08412W 8430 01450 9956 +176 +174 221029 029 024 005 00
120330 2836N 08411W 8429 01452 9956 +179 +170 217028 030 028 004 00
120400 2835N 08410W 8433 01450 9959 +177 +166 219032 033 025 006 00
120430 2833N 08409W 8432 01452 9958 +182 +165 217033 034 028 004 00
120500 2832N 08408W 8431 01452 9959 +184 +171 217034 035 027 004 00
120530 2831N 08407W 8430 01457 9961 +180 +172 220036 037 027 005 00
120600 2829N 08406W 8430 01459 9963 +180 +171 222036 037 029 004 00
120630 2828N 08405W 8432 01459 9964 +181 +171 222036 036 028 005 00
120700 2826N 08404W 8430 01461 9966 +180 +174 224036 037 031 005 00
120730 2825N 08403W 8432 01462 9968 +180 +175 224037 039 033 004 00
120800 2823N 08402W 8433 01461 9969 +182 +169 223042 043 032 005 00
120830 2822N 08401W 8431 01466 9968 +185 +167 224043 043 032 005 00
120900 2820N 08400W 8431 01464 9969 +186 +165 226041 042 032 005 00
120930 2819N 08359W 8430 01469 9970 +186 +164 228042 042 034 004 00
121000 2817N 08358W 8430 01470 9973 +182 +166 227042 043 032 003 00
121030 2816N 08357W 8430 01470 9978 +179 +166 227042 043 032 004 00
$$

[tolakram]

0Z global model roundup

48 hours







96 hours








NOGAPS dissipates Debbie in place, rather that going with an east solution.

[robbielyn]

Two things: it seems that western side could start to dry out a little bit relatively soon d/t convection heading off east coast at a steady pace.

Second: could it be a new center is forming east of jax in the atlantic? Its rotating last couple of frames. Hmmm.

[mutley]

Second: could it be a new center is forming east of jax in the atlantic? Its rotating last couple of frames. Hmmm.

That would be one helluva relocation.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[AHS2011]

If that's the case, then looks like Debby is allergic to land.

[crimi481]

Seems to be moving more south than east?