Texas Summer 2012

[Shoshana]

11 am and we have 100F at the house.....

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting twist.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 261516 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1016 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE MAINLY TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST GO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND LET AFTERNOON
PACKAGE PERSON DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND IT INTO THE EVENING
PERIODS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
SW SLOW ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...WITH HIGH THETA-E
VALUES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREA AND
CONSIDERING HIGH TEMPERATURES (THUS STRONG INSTABILITY) ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED ADVECTION...SEE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. OTHER THAN
THAT...MADE JUST A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON/EVENING
CLOUDS GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTION. SAW NO REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE/WIND GRIDS AT THIS TIME. REST OF FORECAST
FINE FOR NOW. HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL GOOD. UPDATED PRODUCTS ISSUED
SHORTLY.

&&

[Ntxw]

It's 101 at DFW by noon at least. This is too hot, too many bad memories. I need clouds...I need thunderstorms. Why must there always be a heat wave around the summer solstice?!!?

Want a cool spot? Head to far west Texas near El Paso where today's high will be only 100. Or the Chihuahuan Desert...(big bend national park only upper 80s this week wow)

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Where is Wxman57???? Is he out jogging in the heat he loves so much????

Head to Vancouver, British Columbia..... it is *very wet* and cool there!

[weatherdude1108]

SPC Outlook today (for whatever it's worth):


...SERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE OVER A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
THE STRONG HEATING IS ESTABLISHING A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...AND AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG NELY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KT AT
500MB/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SWWD AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

[Tireman4]

101 here. Lovely. Just stinking gosh darned lovely.

[Portastorm]

SPC Outlook today (for whatever it's worth):


...SERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE OVER A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
THE STRONG HEATING IS ESTABLISHING A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...AND AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG NELY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KT AT
500MB/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SWWD AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

I do know that when you see thunderstorms formed in these types of situations, they're usually monster storms with very, very strong winds. Should be interesting this afternoon to see what, if anything, happens.

[vbhoutex]

SPC Outlook today (for whatever it's worth):


...SERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TX...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 95-100 RANGE OVER A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.
THE STRONG HEATING IS ESTABLISHING A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...AND AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG NELY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KT AT
500MB/ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS THAT WILL MOVE SWWD AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

I do know that when you see thunderstorms formed in these types of situations, they're usually monster storms with very, very strong winds. Should be interesting this afternoon to see what, if anything, happens.

Currently 104f here at the house. Has been above 100f since sometime around 11am. Hoping for those thunderstorms without the high winds and hail that that type of storm usually produces.

[horselattitudesfarm]

It's 101 at DFW by noon at least. This is too hot, too many bad memories. I need clouds...I need thunderstorms. Why must there always be a heat wave around the summer solstice?!!?

Want a cool spot? Head to far west Texas near El Paso where today's high will be only 100. Or the Chihuahuan Desert...(big bend national park only upper 80s this week wow)

I thought all of this heat was coming from the Chihuahua desert, but by the looks of this map, its all homegrown! Interesting how the heat followss the Rio Grande out west. Might have to head to one of those little pockets of light green out there in New Mexico if nothing else.

[Shoshana]

2 pm and 105F at the house and Mabry

[Portastorm]

The severe threat for south central Texas this afternoon appears to be getting closer to reality ...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1289.html

[Ntxw]

I thought all of this heat was coming from the Chihuahua desert, but by the looks of this map, its all homegrown! Interesting how the heat followss the Rio Grande out west. Might have to head to one of those little pockets of light green out there in New Mexico if nothing else.

It's coming from the central plains . Texas is on the southern edge of the ridge. It's 108-110+ in Kansas, NW Oklahoma and Nebraska. It could be much worse for Texas.

HRRR is not very bullish with convection, mostly in coastal counties of the upper and middle Texas coast. We'll see, hope!

[Shoshana]

107 at the house 106 at Mabry 104 at Bergstrom

We're usually 3 degrees hotter than Bergstrom which is down by the river away from the city.

[weatherdude1108]

The severe threat for south central Texas this afternoon appears to be getting closer to reality ...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1289.html

Wow! How things change, or at least are perceived to change! I feel strangely like I've been through something like this before. Weird, like some mirage(?).

I'll take high winds over hail. But it would be nice to get liquid water out of it.

[weatherdude1108]

They're siding with the ECMWF ensemble, which is claiming more normal rainfall for this part of Texas during the next couple weeks.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 26 2012

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2012

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE
TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST, JUST OFF THE EAST COAST, AND OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE GFS ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED
NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR TO,
BUT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN, THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE CONUS. TODAY'S BLEND CHART INDICATES WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, FLORIDA,
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO AND CALIFORNIA,
AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND NORTHEAST ALASKA.

THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAD TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND
THE ALEUTIANS ALSO HAVE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION.

THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, WHILE THE RIDGE
FORECAST OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION OVER THAT REGION. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1
TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2012

FOR WEEK 2, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA COMPARED TO THAT
FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH AS
USUAL, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN
CIRCULATION FEATURES AND ARE A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE LOW
TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER
ALASKA.

TODAY'S WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS, THE GULF COAST STATES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

[weatherdude1108]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC013-015-021-025-029-041-051-055-089-091-123-149-157-163-175-
177-185-187-209-239-255-285-287-297-311-325-453-469-473-477-481-
493-270300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0432.120626T2025Z-120627T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA AUSTIN BASTROP
BEE BEXAR BRAZOS
BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO
COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE
FORT BEND FRIO GOLIAD
GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE
HAYS JACKSON KARNES
LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK
MCMULLEN MEDINA TRAVIS
VICTORIA WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON WILSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...

[Portastorm]

You're getting quicker on the trigger there, weatherdude1108. You beat me to the punch!

EWX radar looks clear at the moment but I do see high-based, building cumulus outside the window. Oh, and it's 106 degrees at the moment in the capital of Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

2 browsers open at the same time.

Gotta watch and make sure it doesn't crash.

Yeah, I see some cumulus out my window, and the 106. Ugh. Means my car thermometer will probably read 110. I'll let you all know. My watering day is tomorrow. Hope I can "supplement" it with rain.

[Portastorm]

4 p.m. in Austin ... 107 degrees. We broke the day's high temp record set in 2009 of 105.

This is so not fun. Omega Block ... go away!

[weatherdude1108]

4 p.m. in Austin ... 107 degrees. We broke the day's high temp record set in 2009 of 105.

This is so not fun. Omega Block ... go away!

I echo that!

What was the highest temperature we had last year? I feel like I want to say 114(?), but not sure. I may be confusing that with Lubbock in June 1993(?).