WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

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[Typhoon Hunter]

it really has a large scope, also indicated by the JMA. HKO also has the same forecast track of this passing through Calayan and Babuyan Islands.

Hi Dexter, do you mean the HKO NWP model forecast? I can't see any official TC forecast track from HKO just yet. Their model is known to be quite erroneous at times. I think they'll issue a track tomorrow! Will move into an area of very low shear according to CIMSS:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

NRL calling this 07W Doksuri so expecting an upgrade from JTWC any moment now!

[euro6208]

Upgraded to our 7th storm of this season

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251651Z JUN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.6N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.2N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.6N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 129.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (DOKSURI),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 251651Z JUN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(WTPN21
PGTW 251700).//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
545 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS (LLCC) INTERACTING AS THEY CONSOLIDATE. A 261116Z SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION, WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT QUADRANT. A
260919Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE NOTED ABOVE
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE WINDSAT PASS
NOTED AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH A
POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SOME PRESSURE ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), HOWEVER, THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
STRONG AND INTERACTION WITH A TUTT CELL MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING THE EXHAUST. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION WHICH REACHES
WESTWARD TOWARDS HONG KONG FROM A STRONG HIGH NEAR 35N 160W. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON IS
FORECAST TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT TEMPORARILY. BETWEEN TAUS 48-72, TD
07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT
REDEVELOPMENT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MONGOLIA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
RECURVE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE SOLE EASTWARD OUTLIER IS NOGAPS, WHICH
UNREALISTICALLY PUNCHES INTO THE STR AND TRACKS EAST OF TAIWAN. THIS
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO OFFSET THE IMPACT OF NOGAPS
ON CONSENSUS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STR, OR IF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH TO ALLOW LANDFALL NEAR
HONG KONG. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE AT 26-
27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES CHINA WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ITS IMPACT ON
THE STR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1007.7mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest video and thoughts on this. Feed back is good! I didn't use JTWC as well by the way. It wasn't upgraded yet but JMA is about on the same line as them anyhow.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Za6TY-BXvaQ[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Heres the latest from Pagasa, it seems there taking the storm a little farther N. than JMA does. Plus above some of the model guidance. Looks like they expect less of an influence of the west pac high. Time will tell.

[KWT]

ECM drives this system towards Hong Kong but to be honest its a weak feature and more of a rain system than anything else. Barely develops at all.

[euro6208]

huge burst of deep convection right over the circulation center and improving outflow...

[KWT]

Yes that is a pretty impressive burst of convection there, the ECM does show some strengthening before it clips land as it moves WNW/NW.

[Meow]

Still not ‘Maximum wind speed near the center’.



TS 1206 (DOKSURI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 26 June 2012

<Analyses at 26/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E118°05'(118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah keeping an eye on this one from Hong Kong. ECMWF 12z run reminds me of Molave from 2009, that gave northern parts of Hong Kong and Shenzhen a good blow. JMA now forecasting a severe tropical storm as it enters S China Sea. As always though if it clips N Luzon intensity will take a big hit.

Stay safe friends in N Philippines!

[oaba09]

The latest JTWC track is showing a landfall on the north of the main luzon island

Although it's not that powerful, it will still bring rain in that area w/c might trigger flooding and land slides.

The government needs to mobilize the NDRRMC(disaster agency) and the armed forces soon just to be safe.

[oaba09]

Here's the latest from JTWC(0300 update)



WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.5N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.7N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.8N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.6N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 126.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

[francis327]

Moving now on a WNW track instead of NW. I kind of go along with JTWC forecast track. This storm probably will affect the whole Luzon instead of skirting northern luzon.

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1206 DOKSURI (1206)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 15.2N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 17.7N 123.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 290000UTC 20.2N 119.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 300000UTC 22.4N 116.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

euro still has doksuri passing between taiwan and luzon as a strengthening storm...hong kong still not out of the clear!

[phwxenthusiast]

ugh, exposed llcc... but i guess it's better for Luzon if it continues to stay weak

[dexterlabio]

latest from euro has Doksuri at peak strength off NE Luzon then dying south of Taiwan by the 29th.

[Typhoon Hunter]

latest from euro has Doksuri at peak strength off NE Luzon then dying south of Taiwan by the 29th.

I think the chances of that are pretty unlikely given multi agency forecasts, EURO not been on top form this month that's for sure. Will no doubt be an erroneous run.

[dexterlabio]

^am actually having a change of heart regarding the euro runs these past few days. GFS got me more, especially the last time when GFS first had Guchol becoming a significant TC while Euro hadn't...and in the Atlantic when it beat Euro on predicting Debby's track. I wonder what's up with Euro.

[dexterlabio]

what i hate about sheared systems is that the center is so hard to locate and it's quite tricky to plot their actual track. JTWC latest fix has the center farther north and east again compared to JMA and PAGASA.