ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI continues to take a plunge,now down to -9.5.

[dexterlabio]

and the 30-day SOI gone down to -10.3. IMO it is now very safe to say that El Nino's gonna kick in before the northern hemisphere summer ends. if it stays below -8.00 for 1 more month and conditions remain conducive for El Nino, could that mean El Nino's officially be declared?

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 and 4 continues to warm up. Today's ENSO update will be fascinating. We'll either be very close or will have already reached the 5c threshold.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly update at 6/25/12

Nino 3.4 warms up once again and in this update is shy from the El Nino threshold +0.4C as that line of El Nino is +0.5C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[euro6208]

another day of monster daily values now at -49.35...30 day at -10.31

[euro6208]

down to -11.0

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI

26 Jun 2012 1010.31 1015.70 -46.96 -10.82 -6.29

[Ntxw]

If the models are correct we may have seen the SOI at it's peak crash already with this latest high pressure system. Will begin to relax a little as Darwin comes out of the high numbers. However SOI may continue to remain consistently negative as Tahiti pressures should remain steady. Next bout of high pressure at Darwin may come early July.

[SoupBone]

If the models are correct we may have seen the SOI at it's peak crash already with this latest high pressure system. Will begin to relax a little as Darwin comes out of the high numbers. However SOI may continue to remain consistently negative as Tahiti pressures should remain steady. Next bout of high pressure at Darwin may come early July.

i understand that this is just one piece of the overall puzzle, but what do the current negative values mean as far as the Atlantic season is concerned?

[tolakram]

If the models are correct we may have seen the SOI at it's peak crash already with this latest high pressure system. Will begin to relax a little as Darwin comes out of the high numbers. However SOI may continue to remain consistently negative as Tahiti pressures should remain steady. Next bout of high pressure at Darwin may come early July.

i understand that this is just one piece of the overall puzzle, but what do the current negative values mean as far as the Atlantic season is concerned?

Typically negative numbers indicate El Nino conditions are present or forming. If El Nino forms it could mean an early end to the Atlantic season, or a much lower chance of storms forming due to increased wind shear. El Nino does not mean the season will be mild though, it just lessens the chance of storms forming. Hurricane Andrew formed in an El Nino season ... it only takes one!

[Riptide]

If the models are correct we may have seen the SOI at it's peak crash already with this latest high pressure system. Will begin to relax a little as Darwin comes out of the high numbers. However SOI may continue to remain consistently negative as Tahiti pressures should remain steady. Next bout of high pressure at Darwin may come early July.

i understand that this is just one piece of the overall puzzle, but what do the current negative values mean as far as the Atlantic season is concerned?

Typically negative numbers indicate El Nino conditions are present or forming. If El Nino forms it could mean an early end to the Atlantic season, or a much lower chance of storms forming due to increased wind shear. El Nino does not mean the season will be mild though, it just lessens the chance of storms forming. Hurricane Andrew formed in an El Nino season ... it only takes one!

Generally this theory has been proven regarding el nino and wind shear but is there always a correlation and is wind shear dependent on other factors? Wasn't 2005 a neutral/weak el nino year?

[Ntxw]

^ All very good points. The SOI is only indicator for weather patterns in the southern Pacific between Oceania and Tropical Pacific. It doesn't not have a direct effect on the Atlantic basin. As Tolakram said it indicates what ENSO state the atmosphere is responding to. It is a mistake to use ENSO and SOI for storm intensities. Only should be used as guidance for activity in numbers.

There's a lag time between enso states and atmospheric conditions. Even though El Nino is expected to come it will at most be weak come peak season thus probably won't have enough effects (strength of nino also matters if you're looking for wind shear). It is next year that the Nino will probably effect most I believe after it peaks and the weather patterns reflect it. Better indicator is conditions over Africa and heights throughout the Atlantic basin.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, how long do you think this El-Nino will last? Into next years Hurricane season or will it die off in the spring of 2013?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, how long do you think this El-Nino will last? Into next years Hurricane season or will it die off in the spring of 2013?

It is very rare to get back to back El Nino's during cold PDO periods which is what we are in. History favors neutral or return to La Nina but that is very far away from now. I'll guess peak this winter and fade come spring.

[joshb19882004]

the Australian climate site nino key indicates have reached el nino temps
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/715/nino34.png/

[euro6208]

oh boy here we go...a monster season enhanced by an el nino...could we see 10 category 5 Super Typhoons like what we saw in 1997? this el nino is weaker though but we will never know...

[Aric Dunn]

All this aside. The fact that el nino has not fully developed when it was forecast too at or about the time of the start of the hurricane season only extends the neutral conditions for the remainder of at least the peak of the season before global affects of the el nino would be effected. the longer this takes ( if at all) will play a big role in the atlantics finishing the majority of the season prior to on set of el nino conditions.

[Ntxw]

the Australian climate site nino key indicates have reached el nino temps
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/715/nino34.png/

We'll have to wait for CPC next Monday. I am willing to bet my noodles El Nino's .5C threshold will be reached.

Meanwhile though SOI has loosened it's extreme tank, it is still in the -30s. Return to positive numbers appears not likely. 90 day SOI is also only a couple of points behind from the threshold. Once that does, expect effects of the Nino to have full grip.

[wxman57]

Holy cow! Latest prediction is for temps approaching +1.5C by peak season and +2C in December:

[cycloneye]

Holy cow! Latest prediction is for temps approaching +1.5C by peak season and +2C in December:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

It may be a second half of hurricane season closed and a great winter for many including Texas.See the Texas Winter Thread.

[Ntxw]

Jesus what an update from the models lol. Maybe I wasn't crazy after all bringing this up awhile ago.

A little side note. The oncoming (strong) Nino of 1997-1998 looked like this, however it came a month sooner in May vs June. Now I do not believe we are in for that kind of a Nino (cold PDO) but the similarities can't be overlooked. The eastern basin started baking first.