WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

Can someone (a Met perhaps) kindly explain what happened???

LLCC has decoupled over the last 3-6 hours, moved North...
While the main convection continued to move west...

Any synoptic occurrence that caused this?

[euro6208]

center relocated further east!!! possibly hong kong landfall

WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.2N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.8N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 127.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION:
RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TS 07W FURTHER EASTWARD BASED ON
EVIDENCE OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED
MUTLISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND
280900Z.//
NNNN




WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
BECAME DETACHED FROM THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND BEGAN TRACKING
DUE NORTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. PRIOR TO FORMATION, THERE WERE
MULTIPLE VORTICES CLEARLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROVIDED EVIDENCE
THAT THE LLCC HAD CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, EITHER THE MSI IS DEPICTING THE TRUE LLCC BECOMING
EXPOSED, OR THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT OTHER MESOVORTICES
STILL EXIST AND ARE NOT BEING CAPTURED IN THE SCATTEROMETRY. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPOSED LLCC IN THE
MSI AND A 270314Z OSCAT PASS, WITH POOR OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
ASSESSMENT OF THE SYSTEM'S TRUE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, RJTD AND KNES RANGING FROM 30-35 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE, WITH THE
LLCC LOCATED JUST WEST OF A FINGER OF RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
PRODUCT DEPICTS THIS RIDGING PRODUCING MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH EXPLAINS THE EXPOSED
LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRESSURE
ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM; HOWEVER, OVERALL OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS RELOCATED EASTWARD
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC NOTED IN MSI.
B. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH
EXTENDS WESTWARD TO TAIWAN. THE INCREASED SHEAR AND INTERACTION
WITH LUZON WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF TS 07W, RESULTING IN A VERY
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 55 KNOTS BY TAU
48. IF THE VWS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OR IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTH, DIRECTLY OVER LUZON, THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY
WILL BE FURTHER DOWNGRADED. THERE IS MARGINAL CONFIDENCE IN THE
PEAK INTENSITY AT THIS POINT. THERE IS, HOWEVER, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS THROUGH THE INTERMEDIATE TAUS, AS WELL AS ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER EASTERN CHINA WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE THE WESTERN STR, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER OR NEAR HONG KONG. HOWEVER, THERE HAS
BEEN A TREND TOWARDS GREATER SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER
TAUS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ENSEMBLE MODEL PRODUCTS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING A BIFURCATION, WITH
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AFTER PASSING
TAIWAN DUE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND WESTERN STR. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES HONG KONG DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just a reminder, Im having updates on this storm and more every hour about 20min after the hour at this link. Or on TV if you get NHK at home.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/index.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest from JMA

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 993.9mb/ 49.0kt

interesting that dvorak is at 3.2...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest model outlook.

[RobWESTPACWX]

You guys should check out this link I just got sent. It is really cool showing JMA, PAGASA and JTWC on the same platform.


http://www.chtchronicles.net/stormwatch ... SURI-DINDO

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like JMA have relocated the centre too, it may well just miss northern Luzon, but of course still bring torrential rain to that area. Agency tracks have a bullseye on Hong Kong at the moment, but given we're 72hrs out that could change, interesting time ahead though for sure!

[euro6208]

very deep convection approaching luzon

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.9N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.0N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey everyone, here is my latest video update on where this storm will be going and possible impacts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnyaywwGMMA[/youtube]

Also to answer the question about the change in the LLC my thoughts are that the low level circ. is very disorganized as this storm continues to find itself. Given the weakness of it it changed a position. This happens sometimes with weak systems.

My thoughts though.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA has the center's location it further west than JMA and JTWC. Either they got the center on the right spot or they will do relocation later on.

[francis327]

direction of the storm is changing rapidly. from the initial WNW become NW and now NNW...possible of missing northern Luzon but still affecting the coastal area..


WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1206 DOKSURI (1206)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.2N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 18.9N 122.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291200UTC 20.9N 118.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 301200UTC 23.0N 113.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

Prognostic reasoning from JTWC

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND MOVED
BACK UNDER THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 271105Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS MOSTLY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC,
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
GIVEN THIS STORM’S HISTORY OF MULTIPLE VORTICES, IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT THE AREA OF DEEPEST CONVECTION MAY FORM A NEW LLCC
AND ABSORB THE ONE CURRENTLY BEING TRACKED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 270902Z
WINDSAT PARTIAL PASS WHICH DEPICTS 25-30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST
CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PRODUCT REVELS THAT THE VWS HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY, BUT IS STILL A MODERATE 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN WANING. THE CIRA AMSU-BASED RADIAL CROSS
SECTION INDICATES A SURPRISINGLY STRONG THREE DEGREE WARM ANOMALY
OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN
HIGH (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH
EXTENDS WESTWARD TO TAIWAN. DUE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK CORRECTION,
THE
CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH OF LUZON
THAN BEFORE, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE UNFAVORABLE LAND INTERACTION.
THE MOST RECENT VERTICAL SOUNDING FROM LAOAG, PHILIPPINES SHOWS
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN, WITH THE MEAN
STEERING LEVEL FLOW ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THIS FLOW SHOULD
PUT
THE SYSTEM BACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. GIVEN THE FAIR
OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS AND REDUCED LAND INTERACTION, TS 07W IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIGHT. THE
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MODERATE VWS, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 48. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48, WITH LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG PRIOR
TO TAU 72. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
C. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 72. THE MODELS HAVE MORE SPREAD BEYOND TAU
72. GFS AND GFDN ARE WESTERN OUTLIERS, BRINGING THE SYSTEM ASHORE
CLOSER TO ZHANJIANG. THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE SINGLE
MODEL ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS WHICH RANGE FROM A STRONGER STR PRODUCING A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK, TO A STRONGER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER TAIWAN. GIVEN THE RANGE OF SCENARIOS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Meow]

TS 1206 (DOKSURI)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 27 June 2012

<Analyses at 27/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°05'(18.1°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E117°55'(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°40'(23.7°)
E113°25'(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[dhoeze]

Wow.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Typhoon Hunter]

That's bad news for northern Luzon that big flare up, reminds me of what Ketsana looked like when passing over Manila. Even heavily sheared weak tropical storms can be very dangerous!

[RobWESTPACWX]

The wind came and blew her dress up. This in broadcasting terms is called a skirt alert.

Either way though even if the center is exposed the main mass of convection is also over shore. So in other words the worst of the weather. Fingers cross there are little reports of flooding etc.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my recent video as well. I talk about the exposed cir. Plus I mention the newest tropical invest area well to the East.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gn4v3G9xyU[/youtube]

[oaba09]

I don't wanna comment on the "center" of the storm anymore LOL. I'll leave this to the pros.

My big concern is the massive convection over northern luzon right now. I agree w/ typhoon hunter, that thing also reminds me of ketsana when she passed over luzon.