ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

NEXT! I'm thinking maybe early August (the 8th) for "Ernesto". El Nino is coming on strong now. Could shut things down early this season.

[Peach]

CR218 in Clay County, big corridor for many Middleburg residents is closed due to washout.
Nolan Rd is also washed out, leaving some residents stranded, they have temp patched Nolan Rd, but CR218 will take weeks.
[http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/1563/218washoutwilldickeyred.jpg

US 301 bridge near Otis Rd is closed due to washout.
http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/6636 ... ridge0.jpg

Alerts from FDOT:
http://www.fl511.com/Alerts.aspx


http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/9060/imagefull6.jpg

What are "flood products". One pro referred to them as floods are not of interest without winds. The St. Mary's is now forecast to reach 23.4 feet, flood stage is 12.0. This is the sixth revision; parts of US 90, & SR 121 were out, but the sun is shining now.

[ozonepete]

The chart is correct...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

...DEBBY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...NOW A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE...

Debby sure is post-tropical - it absorbed dry air and is stretched out by shear, but the Unisys analysis was not correct just in my opinion; but it's also HPC's opinion. I'm posting how the HPC analyzes it. There is a difference. HPC has never attached Debby to the front. Just sayin'. I'm done with Debby too anyway. We'll see if we get to August without a TC, lol.

[wxman57]

It all depends upon who is analyzing the chart. I've been analyzing surface charts for over 35 years now. Debby was/is most definitely associated/connected with the cold front. Possibly, the HPC analyzer didn't want his/her chart to conflict with what the NHC was saying about Debby at the time.

[ozonepete]

It all depends upon who is analyzing the chart. I've been analyzing surface charts for over 35 years now. Debby was/is most definitely associated/connected with the cold front. Possibly, the HPC analyzer didn't want his/her chart to conflict with what the NHC was saying about Debby at the time.

Your last statement there was what I was getting at. I just wanted to know why there has been a discrepancy. You've answered it very well. And no one admires your analysis skills here more than I do, as you know. That's why you get all my tough questions. You're the one who can answer them best. See you when Ernesto shows up, which I know you hope is next year, lol.

[jaxfladude]

NEXT! I'm thinking maybe early August (the 8th) for "Ernesto". El Nino is coming on strong now. Could shut things down early this season.

Good! "Beryl" and "Debby" were bad enough for me...I hope that "Ernesto", if and when it forms, it is a true "fish storm"....
The earlier this season ends the better....

=====================

It all depends upon who is analyzing the chart. I've been analyzing surface charts for over 35 years now. Debby was/is most definitely associated/connected with the cold front. Possibly, the HPC analyzer didn't want his/her chart to conflict with what the NHC was saying about Debby at the time.

Your last statement there was what I was getting at. I just wanted to know why there has been a discrepancy. You've answered it very well. And no one admires your analysis skills here more than I do, as you know. That's why you get all my tough questions. You're the one who can answer them best. See you when Ernesto shows up, which I know you hope is next year, lol.

I could not agree more....

[Stephanie]

It's a darn shame that all of that water can't be transferred out west to fight those fires. We've seen that time and time again. Incredible pictures.

[CrazyC83]

See ya in 2018 Debby! (unless somehow she gets retired - and this doesn't seem like such a scenario)

[fci]

NEXT! I'm thinking maybe early August (the 8th) for "Ernesto". El Nino is coming on strong now. Could shut things down early this season.

As much as I am a Tropical Weather Enthusiast; I would actually welcome a boring, nothing happens season from here on out.
Let's shut it down early this season wxman!!!!!

[HurricaneBelle]

See ya in 2018 Debby! (unless somehow she gets retired - and this doesn't seem like such a scenario)

At first I thought she might be but then I noticed that Fay, which had similar impacts on Florida, is on the list for 2014.

[Hurricanehink]

Convection has increased significantly, looking much more tropical. It's back up to 10% in the TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[Riptide]

Convection has increased significantly, looking much more tropical. It's back up to 10% in the TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEBBY...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

10%?

[floridasun78]

maybe wxman want summer off

[ozonepete]

yuk yuk. yeah he would simply hate if this regenerated. But it's gaining tropical characteristics again. If I didn't know where it came from and just saw it today, I'd say it was a developing STS. Looks like the trough/front may leave it behind again to percolate.

[drezee]

If I lived in Bermuda, I would be quite concerned…They should have Gale warning up at least…

[drezee]

Check out Buoy 41048...pressure falling rapidly...will we get a passover

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048

[crimi481]

I believe may be good chance it slows -possible stalls -sinks WSW

[crimi481]

I believe may be good chance it slows -possible stalls -sinks WSW

Sorry - meant E.S.E

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by Tolakram, added disclaimer

[drezee]

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
12:14 pm 35.0 kts S ( 190 deg true )


Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT) GDR GST
12:14 pm SSW ( 200 deg ) 44.7 kts


TS sustained winds...

[Riptide]

Mabye NHC got tired of all the criticism from naming mid-laditude systems.