Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More of the same this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 AM AST MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUE FOLLOWED BY A SAHARAN AIR LAYER ON WED. A TUTT WILL
REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE CNTRL ATLC SW INTO THE SRN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW HOT AND DRY
WX PATTERN PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS AREA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PERIODIC
SAL EVENTS WITH THE NEXT ONE SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON WED BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TUE. OTHER THAN AN ISOLD AFTERNOON
TSRA OUT WEST POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS MAINLY CARIB WATERS IT JUST LOOKS HOT AND DRY. FCST DOES NOT
HAVE MORE THAN AN ISOLD 20% POP IN ANY GIVEN DAY.

THE MAIN WX CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER ESPECIALLY
GIVEN HOW DRY FUELS ARE RIGHT NOW AND THE FCST OF HOT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. TO ENHANCE THE
FIRE RISK...MODELS SHOW NATLC SFC HIGH STRENGTHENING AFTER WED
WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA AND PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJBQ
BETWEEN 25/18Z AND 25/22Z WHERE VCTS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS.
TJSJ 25/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN E TO ESE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 10 TO
30 KTS BTWN SFC TO 15K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE 15-30K.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF AN ISOLD TSRA MOVING OFF OF THE NW COAST OF PR EACH
AFTERNOON. SOME DUST HAZE IS EXPECTED WED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY DUE TO WINDS AT
20G30MPH AT COASTAL LOCATIONS SIMILAR TO YDAY AND VERY DRY FUELS
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH COAST...ERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 2SD BELOW
NORMAL TODAY RESULTING IN VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WHEN COMBINED WITH
TEMPS IN THE 90S. 950-850MB LAPSE RATES ARE FCST TO BE QUITE
STEEP TODAY GREATER THAN 7.5C/KM RESULTING IN HIGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK HOT
AND DRY AND AS DRY AS FUELS ARE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT EACH DAY TO
HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATE FIRE DANGER THREAT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
QUITE GUSTY THROUGH WED ENHANCING THE FIRE RISK.

&&

.CLIMATE...YDAY MARKED THE 26TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE THIRD LONGEST
STREAK TIED WITH 1981 AND 1982. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981
WHEN THERE WERE 35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MONTH WITH THE MOST 90F DEG
DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE 2012 HAS A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 9 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 IS NOW THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS SURPASSING JUNE
1983 WHEN THERE WERE 7 NIGHTS. YDAY MARKED THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE
DAY WITH MINT AOA 80F. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER IS 8 BACK IN OCT
2009.

JUNE 2012 CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE ON
RECORD AND ALSO THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.8F DEGS. JUNE 2012 IS
ALSO VERY LIKELY TO END AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AND IN THE TOP
FIVE DRIEST MONTHS OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH EVER WAS
MARCH 2005 WHEN ZERO RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE FOLLOWED BY A
SAHARAN DUST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
IS MOVING WEST AND BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO SO FAR TODAY... AND
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST...AFFECTING THE REST OF PUERTO RICO WITH QUICK PASSING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WRF
MODEL IS SUGGESTING DECENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT MUCH CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ON TUESDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BE
LIMITED IF ANY WERE TO DEVELOP. SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA. NAAPS MODEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
CONCENTRATION OF DUST COMING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGERING UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. EVEN
THOUGH WE EXPECT A BIT OF HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 25/19Z
AND 25/23Z...IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 91 / 20 10 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20

[Gustywind]

Here comes the rain in Guadeloupe. That's made a long time i've not heard the thunder in my location! What a sensation to hear the rain on the roof with the thunder. Glad to have some showers. Remember when iw as speaking about the faith. That's a good way for the others twaves... We will see.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the rain in Guadeloupe. That's made a long time i've not heard the thunder in my location! What a sensation to hear the rain on the roof with the thunder. Glad to have some showers. Remember when iw as speaking about the faith. That's a good way for the others twaves... We will see.

Finnally,good news for that island. In PR,we also got a few showers. But what we have to watch is a Tropical Wave now in the Eastern Atlantic that may bring a good deal of rain as the wave looks good. Let's see what happens in the next few days with it.

[Gustywind]

Here comes the rain in Guadeloupe. That's made a long time i've not heard the thunder in my location! What a sensation to hear the rain on the roof with the thunder. Glad to have some showers. Remember when iw as speaking about the faith. That's a good way for the others twaves... We will see.

Finnally,good news for that island. In PR,we also got a few showers. But what we have to watch is a Tropical Wave now in the Eastern Atlantic that may bring a good deal of rain as the wave looks good. Let's see what happens in the next few days with it.

Thanks to you Cycloneye . Yeah we got some rain, not excessively but we're happy to have some. Yes i knew for the next Tropical Wave as i posted in the specific topic. She seems very nice, we will watch it for sure. Let's hope that the others islands will deal with some showers included la isla del encanto, PR.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will fall today in PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST TUE JUN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN...
WHILE A TUTT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOCAL REGION ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN TODAY. THIS SHOULD AID IN SUPPRESSING ANY
SIGNIFICANT OR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEARING 64/65 WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTANT TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY SPILLING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FURTHER EAST
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ANOTHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED SUSPENDED DUST
PARTICULATES TRAILS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN FRINGES AND TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HELP PRODUCE EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS...AND MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OTHER THAN BRIEF
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECTED THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
DRIER AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
THEREFORE... EXPECT INCREASINGLY HAZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND
WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WITH ACCOMPANYING QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS EACH DAY. OVERALL HOWEVER...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S
EACH DAY.


&&

.AVIATION...THE WEAK TROPICAL MOVG ACROSS THE ERNA CARIBBEAN
WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHRA ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. SHRA EN ROUTE TO THE
ISLANDS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST
AND TISX FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...ISOLD-SCT SHRA
WILL DEVELOP AN SPREAD OVER PARTS OF PR BTW 25/12Z-25/20Z.
PREVIOUS TJSJ 26/00Z SUGGESTED A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS FROM SFC-FL200.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 90 81 90 82 / 30 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. YES!!!! An active wave is comming by next Monday Whooo!!. Needed rain and to turn down the high temperatures. Bring it on!!.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE JUN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
DRY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND
WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE
AFTER THE WAVE TOMORROW...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB DROPPING TO
NEAR 320K FROM 330K TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY SOME
SAHARAN DUST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A GOOD
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER
WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING JUNE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 26/19Z AND 26/23Z...IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.CLIMATE...AS 2:30 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS
MARKS THE 28TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
REACHING 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE AT THE AIRPORT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 90 / 20 20 10 10
STT 81 91 81 89 / 30 30 10 10

[Gustywind]

Good afternoon. YES!!!! An active wave is comming by next Monday Whooo!!. Needed rain and to turn down the high temperatures. Bring it on!!.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE JUN 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
DRY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND
WILL EXIT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE
AFTER THE WAVE TOMORROW...WITH THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB DROPPING TO
NEAR 320K FROM 330K TODAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY SOME
SAHARAN DUST. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION MONDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A GOOD
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER
WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING JUNE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ
BETWEEN 26/19Z AND 26/23Z...IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.CLIMATE...AS 2:30 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OBSERVED AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS
MARKS THE 28TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
REACHING 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE AT THE AIRPORT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 93 80 90 / 20 20 10 10
STT 81 91 81 89 / 30 30 10 10

Yep Luis, that will be very good news for you and most of the Lesser ! Looks like a significant rain event in store?! Maybe, we should hope for the best to enjoy ( if its verifies afterwards...) the eventual joy of the rain For info, we received 30 millimiters of water this afternoon near Petit-Bourg. Not so much but that was nice shower for this area . Let's continue to see how this twave will evolve during the next couple of days .

[cycloneye]

We have a yellow circle for that wave East of the Lesser Antilles. Follow the information and discussions about it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum. But if you want to make comments about it in this thread, you can also make them here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113053&hilit=&p=2237141#p2237141

[Gustywind]

We have a yellow circle for that wave East of the Lesser Antilles. Follow the information and discussions about it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum. But if you want to make comments about it in this thread, you can also make them here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113053&hilit=&p=2237141#p2237141

Thanks Luis, you're so happy my friend... glad to see that you're always so quick to share and discuss most of the interresting threads . But, how can you be so quick ? You have a secret or not ?

[cycloneye]

We have a yellow circle for that wave East of the Lesser Antilles. Follow the information and discussions about it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum. But if you want to make comments about it in this thread, you can also make them here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113053&hilit=&p=2237141#p2237141

Thanks Luis, you're so happy my friend... glad to see that you're always so quick to share and discuss most of the interresting threads . But, how can you be so quick ? You have a secret or not ?

I am routing for this decent wave to come to the Eastern Caribbean because we need rain as the drought in June has been severe in some of the islands like Puerto Rico,Guadeloupe and other islands.I dont want for it to develop into a Storm,only to bring us the rain.

[Gustywind]

We have a yellow circle for that wave East of the Lesser Antilles. Follow the information and discussions about it in the thread at Talking Tropics forum. But if you want to make comments about it in this thread, you can also make them here.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113053&hilit=&p=2237141#p2237141

Thanks Luis, you're so happy my friend... glad to see that you're always so quick to share and discuss most of the interresting threads . But, how can you be so quick ? You have a secret or not ?

I am routing for this decent wave to come to the Eastern Caribbean because we need rain as the drought in June has been severe in some of the islands like Puerto Rico,Guadeloupe and other islands.I dont want for it to develop into a Storm,only to bring us the rain.

Ok, you're right me too. Should i add that we have big troubles with the distribution of the water. Sometimes we have a trickle of water coming out of faucets. This story has begun since 1 month approximately so this twave could and should be welcomed .

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED JUN 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING DUST HAZE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN HAZY SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING
AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW 1.75 INCHES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL AS MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING. THIS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NAAPS
AEROSOL MODEL ALSO SUGGEST SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THIS DRIER AIR
MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AND WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE
THE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S...SPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY. COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD SOURCE OF
MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER WHICH HAS
BEEN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING JUNE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE
AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT TKPK THRU AS LONG AS 27/13Z. CONDS ARE
CLEARING OVER WESTERN PR AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED AFT
27/18Z IN NW PR DUE TO DRIER AIR BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE. LLVL WINDS SE
8 TO 25 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 90 78 / 10 20 20 20
STT 89 81 89 80 / 20 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

A loop of the tropical activity and the twave not too far from the 40W...

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

This is why we need a decent Tropical Wave to at least aliviate what we are going thru and that is why I am rooting for that wave to bring good moisture to the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 AM AST WED JUN 27 2012

.UPDATE...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THE REST OF THE DAY. AS OF 11 AM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
OBSERVED AT SAN JUAN SO FAR WAS 91 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 29TH
DAY IN A ROW WITH 90 DEGREES OR MORE AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST WED JUN 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT AXIS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FA...AS TUTT LOW
ROTATES WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE AXIS AND PASSES
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MORE A BIT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO AID IN AT
LEAST LOCALIZED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE FA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER HAZY TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT SATELLITE DATA INDICATES A THINNING OF THE SAL
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND EXPECT THIS AIR MASS TO ENCOMPASS
THE FA DURING THURSDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS HAZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS WAS THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALIZED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
BUT SLIGHT INCREASES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE RE-ALIGNING TUTT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE WILL FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE TUTT AXIS
TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE FA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
REACHED 93 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...MARKING THE 29TH DAY IN A ROW
WITH 90 DEGREES OR MORE. THIS IS CURRENTLY A TIE WITH 1982 FOR THE
MOST CONSECUTIVE 90+ DEGREE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT MOST VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN P6SM.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 81 89 80 89 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
958 PM AST WED JUN 27 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN ENDED NEAR SUNSET. ATTM...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS INDICATED A BAND
OF DRIER AIR JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS INCREASE
THE MOISTURE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR TOMORROW...BESIDES THAT...MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

[cycloneye]

Good Morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU JUN 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING DUST HAZE WILL
RELEASE A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43 WEST
THIS MORNING...WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MIMIC TPW ANALYSIS SHOW A
TONGUE OF MOISTURE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL
EVENTUALLY INDUCE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST THAT SAHARAN DUST WILL
RELEASE A BIT TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI UNTIL THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE MORE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 43 WEST LONGITUDE THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY.
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD
SOURCE OF MOISTURE. IF THIS VERIFIES...A RELIEF IN THE HOT WEATHER...
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE AFFECTS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A NARROW BAND OF DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A PATCH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FM THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FEW-ISOLD SHRA IN/AROUND THE LEEWARD AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS FM 28/06Z-28/15Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EN
ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. FM 28/18Z-28/22Z... ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVR PARTS OF PR AND THE VI...THIS MAY LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN LOW CIG AND PASSING SHRA...AS WELL AS MTN TOP
OBSCR OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR INCLUDING TJMZ.
LLVL WINDS ENE-ESE 5 TO 20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 40 40 20 10
STT 89 80 89 79 / 40 40 30 20

[tropicana]

UPDATE Thu Jun 28/12 10amET

The Atlantic tropical wave has made some progress westwards over the last 24 hours, now located about 1300 miles East of the Windward Islands. While the wave apparently has become quite well defined especially given the time of the year and it's location, and appears to have good upper level and low level divergence, and while thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated overnight... it looks even slightly less defined during the mid morning period. Additionally, this wave is surrounded by dry subsident air, and quite dry air along with Sahara Dust ahead of it.,.. which extends all the way back to the Leeward Islands. This dry air has been the rule of thumb all month long for much of the Eastern Caribbean..in fact this is turning out to be a record dry June for many districts north of Trinidad and Tobago. With just 3 days left this month...June 2012 has produced just 16mm of rain at Grantley Adams Barbados, 14.3mm at VC Bird Antigua, 2.8mm at West End Anguilla and 3.8mm at San Juan Puerto Rico! Trinidad has benefitted majorly this month with all the help from the ITCZ and has recorded above average rainfall this month ( 271.4mm for 1st 27 days).

Getting back to the point... conditions over the Atlantic Ocean do not favor intensification of this system into a tropical cyclone..and no models develop this wave at all. Just a few low level clouds streaming in across the Atlantic today on the brisk trade winds are producing a few passing showers. It is likely this wave could induce a more widespread rain event sometime this weekend to the island chain. Just the added moisture and trough associated with it as it gets nearer the islands probably will mean more showers to all of the islands.