3rd straight 19 storm season?

[Hurricanehink]

Both 2010 and 2011 had 19 storms each, which was unprecedented in the Atlantic hurricane database since 1851. Before that, the largest number of storms in consecutive seasons was 15 in 2004 and 2005. 2003, 2004, and 2005 had at least 15 storms in each season. Since 1995 (which is the start of the recent active period), the average number of storms after this point is 14, which would yield a total of 28 storms. However, if one removes the outliers (including 2005 for extreme activity, and 1997, 2006, and 2009 for inactivity), the average is 15 after this point, largely because only 2003, 2005, and 2007 had more than one storm before July 1st.

If 2012 had the activity of 1995, 2005, 2010, or 2011, from this point until the end of the year, then the season would have enough storms to reach the Greek alphabet. That is 4 out of the past 17 seasons, or about 24%. By contrast, the least active season after this point would be if the current activity was followed by the 1997 season, which had 7 storms after this date; that would be a total of 11 storms, which is still more active than several seasons in recent decades. Both 2006 and 2009 would have yielded 9 storms after this date, or a total of 13 storms.

Of course, it is quite unusual to have four storms before July 1st, but statistically speaking, it appears quite unlikely the season will have less than 12 storms. Again, this is all based on statistics since 1995, and we all know that tropical cyclones regularly throw out climatology.

[Meteorcane]

From a purely statistical sense you are correct that a large number of early season storms does lead to a higher likliehood of an above average remainder of the season. However, with all indications pointing to a strengthening El Nino later in the summer/fall, a general increase in basin-wide shear could hep to limit TC activity. But, unless ENSO builds in at a 1997 level, I too think 10-12 storms is probably likely given the fact that we have already knocked 4 out at this point.

[Ptarmigan]

From a purely statistical sense you are correct that a large number of early season storms does lead to a higher likliehood of an above average remainder of the season. However, with all indications pointing to a strengthening El Nino later in the summer/fall, a general increase in basin-wide shear could hep to limit TC activity. But, unless ENSO builds in at a 1997 level, I too think 10-12 storms is probably likely given the fact that we have already knocked 4 out at this point.

If we have an El Nino, I don't think it will be a strong one like 1997-1998 or 1982-1983. If we have a weak El Nino, we could still have an active season like in 1969 and 2004.

[wxman57]

There isn't any good correlation between early season development if it's not of tropical origin (Alberto, Beryl, Chris). Systems that develop beneath upper-level lows or in the subtropics in May or June don't really indicate an active TROPICAL season. El Nino is coming on strong now. I think this year's total will be closer to 10 than 19, though it may be close to 11 or 12 named storms vs. the 9 I have in the office contest.

[MGC]

57 is dead on.....with El Nino coming on strong we will be lucky to see a dozen named systems......but, it only takes one......MGC

[Cyclenall]

There isn't any good correlation between early season development if it's not of tropical origin (Alberto, Beryl, Chris). Systems that develop beneath upper-level lows or in the subtropics in May or June don't really indicate an active TROPICAL season. El Nino is coming on strong now. I think this year's total will be closer to 10 than 19, though it may be close to 11 or 12 named storms vs. the 9 I have in the office contest.

We both have the same number of named storms predicted for Atlantic 2012 but we are both going to bust probably on that value. El Nino coming on strong now? Doesn't seem like it with the way the atmosphere as been behaving which is fine by me . At least if Nino does happen it will be nearly incidental to 1911 which helps mould 2012 in that pattern (I want the insane heat here IMBY).

[Hurricanehink]

Again, what I said previously was only based on a completely statistical analysis of the past 17 years. Kinda like a TC computer model that only uses climatology

[somethingfunny]

That prediction of 9 is toast.

Never underestimate the number of non-tropically-originated storms, or weak sheared tropical circulations, that end up acquiring names in the Atlantic basin.

NOT that I think any of this season's 4 were "wasted names". They may have originated from nontropical systems, but Alberto, Beryl, and Chris were all legitimate. (Alberto maybe wouldn't have been named in other basins) Debby was legitimate too, despite being terribly ugly.