Strong Wave East of Windward Islands-(Is Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

Oh, and I said 20% or 30% because the newest update mentioned "more concentrated".

I'm sure they want convection pesistence before getting too interested.

This is mostly an all or nothing board, when a big hurricane is heading for the States, this board is jumping, servers are smoking, and folks can get out of control! That being said, it's the best board going for quality info and entertainment when it comes to weather!! There is a core of folks, including me, that are addicted year around!

[Aric Dunn]

Oh, and I said 20% or 30% because the newest update mentioned "more concentrated".

well they might if the convection persists and does not fade and redevelop.

[wxman57]

Satellite indicates the convection is waning now. Just a temporary flare-up. Look elsewhere for Ernesto. Maybe in August...

[Aric Dunn]

well besides its less defined than yesterday in terms of rotation. it has a good moisture envelope.

just does not have the low level convergence to maintain convection.

[canes04]

I'm surprised of the lack of attention this is getting. There is some potential with this system.
Actually the convection appears to be maintaining itself this morning. I would bump it up to 20% at 2pm.

[wxman57]

I'm surprised of the lack of attention this is getting. There is some potential with this system.
Actually the convection appears to be maintaining itself this morning. I would bump it up to 20% at 2pm.

Convection is quite minimal and it's heading into a region of relatively high shear within 48 hrs. I'd say close to 0% chance of development within 48 hrs.

[Cainer]

I'm surprised of the lack of attention this is getting. There is some potential with this system.
Actually the convection appears to be maintaining itself this morning. I would bump it up to 20% at 2pm.

Convection is quite minimal and it's heading into a region of relatively high shear within 48 hrs. I'd say close to 0% chance of development within 48 hrs.

wxman57, do you think it has better chances once it reaches the Caribbean?

[SFLcane]

Satellite indicates the convection is waning now. Just a temporary flare-up. Look elsewhere for Ernesto. Maybe in August...

Maybe in 2013...if things turn out like this. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

[Ivanhater]

Regardless if this develops or not, that is a strong wave for this time of year. This season has not behaved like many of the forecasters have thought thus far.

[Riptide]

Satellite indicates the convection is waning now. Just a temporary flare-up. Look elsewhere for Ernesto. Maybe in August...

Maybe in 2013...if things turn out like this. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

CFS is never 100 % accurate; and more importantly current statistics show that the 2012 season will feature an average or above average amount of activity.

[SFLcane]

Regardless if this develops or not, that is a strong wave for this time of year. This season has not behaved like many of the forecasters have thought thus far.

Other then ugly debby this season thus far has been all about hybrid/subtropical type systems. That wave currently in central atl is unlikely to develope. Concur with wxman maybe mid august before we something again.

[floridasun78]

i think before aug we see next system no one can say it be untill aug no one i see one in july i hope you all say aug will come to board say i was wrong even wxman

[SouthFloridawx]

Not much wind shear and SAL is not too bad either.

[Gustywind]

Sat pic of this twave continuing its travels to the west...

[ConvergenceZone]

Satellite indicates the convection is waning now. Just a temporary flare-up. Look elsewhere for Ernesto. Maybe in August...

WXMAN57, Wow! That's quite a statement from you, so you think we will go the entire month of July without the next tropical storm forming huh?... Any reasoning behind your prediction?
Just curious...

[Gustywind]

[Weatherfreak000]

Satellite indicates the convection is waning now. Just a temporary flare-up. Look elsewhere for Ernesto. Maybe in August...

WXMAN57, Wow! That's quite a statement from you, so you think we will go the entire month of July without the next tropical storm forming huh?... Any reasoning behind your prediction?
Just curious...

It's not a bad prediction with el nino tightening its grip. Wx47 in my history here tends to suggest this often, perhaps he just doesn't want to have to work as much early season. lol.


That being said, convection continues to wane, if this thing has a shot it has to keep pulsing until it makes it to the Caribbean.

[TheBurn]

17:15 UTC MPE

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Aric Dunn]

I did not think there was. but there is still what looks like a LLC small but it was under that deep convective burst from this morning... you can clearly see in the loop now on the eastern side.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

or here.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html